The bottom line is that there really isn’t that much new to say regarding the markets so I will keep this brief and highlight some things I think are important to keep track of as the chop continues. I’m seeing many people expect some type of resolution to this chop next week. It’s possible and […]
Another week has gone by and little has been resolved in the markets. Pretty much everyone is clueless and making up explanations for every movement that takes place. This is the type of environment that is wise to be patient in and to cut back on trading activity. The QQQ and IWM are still removed […]
Every week we see that markets are near highs. We read and hear that we “are due for a correction,” that there are bearish divergences based on endless indicators, that we are in a bubble that can’t sustain itself. And yet, we look at the indices and nothing looks ominous. Yes the QQQ‘s and IWM have […]
A few weeks ago I wrote What The F%^$ is Going on Here (Part I) and I just read the introduction. I could probably just copy and paste it here, since not much has changed. High growth momentum names are still getting crushed, utilities are still outperforming and the SPX isn’t selling off in the […]
If you have been trading the markets the last couple of months you have probably recognized that something doesn’t seem right. If you traded these markets last week, then you really know something doesn’t seem right. The large swings last week were uncanny. It is assumed that the massive swings we saw are a day traders dream, […]
Flat. That is how I am positioned over the weekend. I see no edge in either direction at this juncture. The short term trend is down, but we are oversold based on some measures. This is a market for those that embrace volatility and not for those looking for longer term trends; therefore, quick one […]
I am going to share some very well researched and good information for you. These are fundamentally sound healthcare companies that have a lot of upside potential and are darlings of Wall Street. If bio’s and health care make a comeback you will benefit from these. Pharmaceuticals Health Care Providers Health Care Equipment & Supplies […]
What a week! It couldn’t have been permeated with more mixed signals and divergences. SPX made all time highs, while the rest of the market was taken to the woodshed. For a several weeks now I have been pointing out all the divergences and presenting a bearish tone to my posts. Anyone who followed me […]
Bulls make money, bears make money, but in this market, only tactical traders make money. For the last few weeks the SPX and DJIA have held up within a range giving the impression that the market has been relatively flat, but underneath the surface things have not looked so neat. The areas of the market that […]
Since tracking these I have never had to shift so many of the graphs to fit the new ranges due to how much they have fallen since this weekend when I posted the original one. SPY: AAPL: AMZN: BIDU: CMG: FB: GOOG: LNKD:NFLX: PCLN: TSLA: TWTR: I now have my premium service page updated with some […]
Last week really highlighted how much open interest can affect prices and was especially pronounced due to it being quarterly expiration. If you haven’t had a chance to look, check out last weeks open interest and Friday’s closing prices. There has definitely been some weakening across the board in momentum stocks. If you haven’t had […]
This market has been anything but easy to navigate since the start of the year. The first quarter is nearly over and we are currently up, but only by about one percent. Last week was full of noise with Crimea, Yellen, OPEX, etc. It’s very hard to make meaning of all that happened as most […]
Wow, what a day! Anyway, here is some updated open interest. These do not include any options that were bought or sold today. For more information on open interest please see the education section of this site. SPY: AAPL: AMZN: BIDU: CMG: FB: GOOG: LNKD: NFLX: PCLN: TSLA: TWTR: I now have my premium service page […]
As I stated in my market commentary for this weekend, I am starting to see more short set-ups than longs. This includes some of the following momentum stocks. You will notice that many of these open interest graphs have one strike that is very prominent. Sometimes that strike can act as a magnet (read more […]
Last week was rough. It was difficult to make money on either side. As I mentioned last weekend the best strategy for now is practicing patience. With such a volatile and choppy environment, set-ups are more likely to fail and trying to anticipate the next move is a guessing game. Next week we have a lot […]
The following are the open interest as of the this morning not including any trades taken today. For more information on how to use it if you are new to my site, here are a few links with information: What is Maxpain? Delta hedging. One strike. SPY: AAPL: AMZN: BIDU: CMG: FB: GOOG: LNKD: NFLX: […]
Not much has changed in my overall view of the market from what I wrote over the weekend here. Here are some open interest updates: SPY: 188 needs to hold up. I worry that if price goes below there for too long it will lead to a larger sell off with all those puts and […]
Last week I stated that I really wasn’t seeing much that attracted me among these momentum stocks. I had a couple intra-week trades and am holding some AMZN and BIDU (both April expirations and both bought prior to last week). This week as I mentioned in my other post this weekend I am going to […]
Here we are again sitting at all time highs, overbought, with a very low put to call ratio and the sense of complacency upon us. Does it sound familiar? Well, if it doesn’t, then this must be your first year in the markets. So why is this the hard part if we have been here […]
SPY: Want to see 185 hold rest of the week. AAPL: AMZN: Would have thought some of the 365’s would have closed. FB: Also would have expected some 70’s to have closed.
Pinning can be a great tool to see where your stock may end up at the end of the week. Even though I give you the open interest at the start of each week and often mid-week, it’s still best used at the end of the week. However, there are many caveats to the workings […]
Note that the following market conditions I write about can easily be trumped by news (i.e. Ukraine/Russia). The market has been tricky and has felt stuck at old highs acting as resistance. However, even with the violent drop late Friday due to the Ukraine/Russia news, we still managed to close the day, the week, the […]
The following are the open interest graphs for March 7th expiration on $AAPL $AMZN $BIDU $CMG $FB $GOOG $LNKD $NFLX $PCLN $SCTY $TSLA and $TWTR. For further understanding of how to make use of these please read What is Maxpain and visit the education section of my site. For SPY, IWM, QQQ, & XLF open interest and market comments for next week […]
The open interest is as of this morning (February 27th) and does not include any trades made today. For further understanding of how to make use of these please read What is Maxpain and visit the education section of my site. For the open interest update on SPY and to see some short interest updates see last nights post […]
Here is some updated open interest that includes today’s trades. SPY: About 34,000 184 puts were added. If 184 holds then it would help validate the strength of this market. If it fails to hold, we may see a move to underneath 183 if the selling picks up speed. AAPL: AMZN: FB: LNKD: NFLX: SCTY: […]
The following are the open interest for BIDU, FSLR, SCTY, and SINA, all of which report earnings this week. The implied volatility and projected price movements are taken from the latest information available as of Friday February 21st. Monday SCTY: Weekly IV: 120%; weekly options pricing in + or – $10. The current implied volatility is one […]
The following are the open interest graphs for February 28th expiration on $AAPL $AMZN $FB $GOOG $LNKD $NFLX $PCLN $TSLA and $TWTR. For further understanding of how to make use of these please read What is Maxpain and visit the education section of my site. To see SPY open interest and market commentary for next week see here. To see […]
The market is exhibiting very 2013 like behavior. We had a quick correction followed by a V shape reversal and are now consolidating gains through time. Thus far this action is healthy and bullish. If we claim all time highs it will be important to see it backed by several breadth indicators. One indicator I […]
The following are the open interest for PCLN and TSLA, both of which report earnings this week. The implied volatility and projected price movements are taken from the latest information available as of Friday the 14th. To view next weeks open interest for SPY and QQQ as well as market commentary for next week click here. […]
The following are the open interest graphs for February 22nd expiration on $AAPL $AMZN $BIDU $FB $GOOG $LNKD $NFLX $TWTR. Keep in mind that because this is monthly expiration, many of the puts or calls could have been bought a long time ago. For further understanding of how to make use of these please read […]
I was certainly not expecting another V-shaped recovery similar to those we experienced in 2013, but hey, I’m not complaining. The question going forward is will we make new highs on SPX or was this a huge bull trap that will develop into a lower high and retest the lows of 1737 or lower. So far […]
As always these are meant to be used as an asset to your other technical indicators…. To see SPY open interest and other market commentary click here. AAPL: Is the accelerated buy back over now that it has been revealed? No idea, but if it’s not then be weary these high open interest calls week […]
The rally we had toward the end of last week was surely impressive. Was the 5.8% correction we had enough to take us back to all time highs? It definitely was a good start, but I don’t think we are out of the woods just yet. The best scenario going forward would be for us […]
LNKD beat estimates, but guided lower and is currently being punished. Seems to be a theme so far this year. Not your 2013 market anymore. NFLX is up $4 due to an upgrade at the close. Tomorrow we find out if the SPY 181 call buyers were right (albeit maybe too early and will likely suffer […]
Here are your weekly open interest graphs for those addiction stocks you love. As always, these are meant to be used in conjunction with your other technical analysis tools. If you have questions on how to interpret them please read the posts in the Education section of my website before asking me. Thank you. For […]
The following are the open interest graphs for expiration on Friday February 7th. The implied volatility and priced in movements are based on the weekly options and will likely change slightly prior to earnings. Wednesday: BIDU: (unconfirmed date) IV: 55.1%, pricing in + or – $9.30 (fairly elevated based on typical earnings IV) TWTR: IV: 145.9%, […]
One month down, 11 to go. The market is doing a decent job of getting rid of the “animal spirts” left behind from 2013. Despite the oversees issues and the development of tapering, I don’t yet see a reason to believe the bull run is over. So far what seems to be taking place is […]
Updated open interest for tomorrow. If one you wanted is not on this list, my apologies. Sometimes life just works that way…. SPY: AAPL: AMZN: BIDU: CMG: FB: GOOG: NFLX: TSLA: TWTR:
The following is the open interest for expiration Friday January 31st. The implied volatility and priced in movement is based on the weekly options. Monday AAPL: IV: 55.5%, Pricing in +/- $30.50 Wednesday FB: IV: 107.5%, Pricing in +/- $5.92 Thursday AMZN: IV: 70.33%, Pricing in +/- $27.46 CMG: IV: 81.3%, Pricing in +/- $40.34 GOOG: IV: 60.8%, Pricing […]
The combination of sentiment and momentum divergences finally mattered supporting the current pullback taking place. I don’t think there is anyone that would argue we weren’t in dire need of a reset regardless of how unpleasant it may be. Considering the current backdrop of liquidity, it seems pre-mature to start preparing for a major correction. For […]
IBM reports earnings on Tuesday, January 21st. The stocks has fallen after the last three reports. Implied volatility is lower than it was for the previous two quarters implying a + or – move of $7.81. For next week, the implied volatility is at 44.6% pricing in a + or – move of $8.30. This […]
Below is the open interest for stocks that expire on Friday January 24th. As always, if you are going to use this information, it should be used in conjunction with your other technical analysis and I don’t advise you to trade solely based off these graphs or my notes. If you are looking for open […]
NFLX reports earnings on Wednesday, January 22. Going back two years this is the lowest implied volatility has been right before earnings pricing in + or – $33. Breaking it down a little further to just next week, the IV is at 106.5% and the measured move is + or – $35.15. NFLX closed Friday […]
The market has been range bound since the start of 2014. So what does that tell you? Is the market consolidating through time and setting up for higher prices? Is the market churning as funds try to disguise their selling which will result in a breakdown? I don’t know. What comes to mind though is […]
The following are the open interest for expiration on January 18th for some of the major banks reporting earnings next week. The implied volatility and what the options market is currently pricing in are taken from Think or Swim. Tuesday: JPM: IV: 29.5% Market pricing in +/- $1.71 WFC: IV: 25.6% Market pricing in +/- $1.74 […]
So which is it? We going to breakout or breakdown? We have been trading in a very tight range and it’s really anyone’s guess as to whether we breakout or breakdown. SPX has been consolidating very close to the highs and breadth has been confirming strength in the overall market. Having said that, I’m going […]
Yes, it has felt like we have been due for a pull-back. And yes, it has felt like we have been extended for a long time. That is precisely why we don’t trade based on our feelings. So far the indexes haven’t pulled back much and in the meantime many stocks have been […]
Looking over my profits from last year, my largest came from swing trades that ranged from about three weeks to a month in a half. This year I am going to focus more on those type of trades because I think they will continue to do well this year. I personally believe that overall we […]
Note: I actually have no affiliation with the creator, but thought it was ironic that I found this and then noticed we share the same name 🙂 Let’s make 2014 a great and prosperous year!!! Happy New Year to all my followers. General Market Update There isn’t much to say. I stated over the weekend […]
I bet I got some bears excited with that title. What I mean is 2013 is over, not the bull market. Jan 3rd expiration is now in the forefront. From Thursday evening (12/26): Anyone who has been following me this year knows that I have been a huge bull, so those words coming from me […]
Hope everyone is having a nice holiday. Here is your updated open interest for expiration this Friday. SPY: Staying over 181 I think gives SPY much more upside potential. If falls below 181 then good chances of a 180 – 181 pin. AAPL: Oddly, the 560 calls didn’t close out on Tuesday. The […]
Tapering and Revised 4.1% GDP Estimate. Stick That up Your…. What a wild week! Hopefully you were prepared with a plan. My plan was outlined for your viewing last week: “My take is that if we get more downside next week it will be early on leading up to the the Fed meeting, but that the […]
Have you been naughty or nice? After a year of constant jokes and criticism do you think Ben – oops, I mean Santa is going to shower us with money through the likes of AMZN, GOOG, FB, TWTR, NFLX, TSLA and all stocks that begin with any letter from A to Z? Or is he […]
CHOP CHOP CHOP The Week That Was: My wrap-up regarding last week can be viewed by the above image. Moving Onto Next Week: So now what? Well your guess is as good as mine. Longer term, things still look great. All we have done is gone sideways after a very large move that began in […]
Too many bulls going too far too fast? 1. Is sentiment getting a bit frothy? Yes2. From a historical perspective, is eight straight up weeks in SPX getting a bit extended? Yes3. Are we going to get a correction sometime in December? My psychic is on vacation this week so will have to get back […]
Here is an update of the four indexes I mentioned in my blog over the weekend. The SPX has basically done nothing, but is holding onto recent gains extremely well. The financials (XLF) and the biotechs (IBB) have also gone sideways as some of the momentum names take pause to consolidate last weeks gains. The […]
“Until we have evidence of a shift taking place in this market, continue to do what is working: buy dips, sell on the way up, rinse and repeat.” That is taken from last weeks blog and since it is still valid it ‘bears’ repeating. Now you may ask, but how do I know which dip […]
Stop Over-thinking:I tend to be an over-thinker and I have learned that over-thinking the markets doesn’t work for my P&L. If you can relate to this let me say it as simply as I can….GET OUT OF YOUR HEAD! Until we have evidence of a shift taking place in this market continue to do what […]
If you want to survive as a trader you need to be able to adapt to market conditions. What has 2013 taught us? Dips are fast, feel harsh, and are short lived. If you have not adapted to that yet, then you are behind the curve. If you have adapted to that then one of […]
Heading into the end of the year dips will be shallow and will be bought. I have noticed more people becoming bearish or cautious recently. For me, the latter makes more sense. I think last week was very constructive, but does warrant a bit more caution. Having said that, I’m not seeing evidence yet of […]
The following open interest graphs are for today’s expiration. SPY: Lot’s of puts at 174 and 174.5. If we have a down day look for that area to prop it up. AAPL: Call buyers got killed again. Shocker. AMZN: Tight range, but considering it’s recent strength and it being above 360 could run if market […]
This market has been relentless and challenging our nature to think it can’t keep going without a substantial pull-back. However, as I said last week, until we see some type of evidence (i.e. outside day, close below previous days low, close below major support, etc.) then there is no reason not to believe the trend […]
The following is the open interest for Monday morning including their current priced in move (what the options market has priced in for both directions). Percentage is the current implied volatility. Information taken from ThinkorSwim. Monday AAPL – currently pricing in $33.72 (64.2%) Tuesday BIDU – currently pricing in $16.10 (100.8%) LNKD – currently pricing […]
Last week was very impressive. Not only did we close at all time highs, but we had an impressive amount of stocks reaching new highs coupled with heavy accumulation days confirming the recent rally. If you recall from a while ago I had a target of 1746. We got to 1745.31. Does that mean I […]
Fun times this week. Although I did not expect to get down to 1640, I did say that if 1670 breaks to step out of the way. I was traveling last week and less available, but hopefully you got this tweet on Wednesday morning. That was also a good place to go long. In hindsight […]
Each week I will do my best to highlight open interest and implied moves for certain popular stocks. If I don’t get to the stock you are in, I apologize. I only have so much time to dedicate to this so I’m going to try to pick the ones that seem to garner the most […]
I am lucky that I happen to be traveling this week and had less exposure to the markets today. The exposure I did have I got stopped out of. We broke 1670 and for me that means risk off. Although it seems enticing to buy the dip, I wouldn’t be in such a hurry this […]
So far our government has not let down our expectations of being useless and as a result a choppy week ensued. Last week I wrote that, “If we do trade down, we have support around 1683 [SPX] and if we drop even further, I still believe 1670 will hold.” So far 1670 on SPX has […]
Last weekend I wrote “Next week there are plenty of reasons to support the idea that we will pull back or at least hang out and consolidate.” I should have just taken the week off because there wasn’t a whole lot going on. I did book my TLT profits, but I believe that trade is […]
Well now that the big Fed decision is out of the way, we can all focus our attention on the budget crises ;-). We have come a long way from the August lows in a pretty short amount of time. September has been a great month for those that bought the dip. If you missed […]
Last week I outlined some levels I thought we may reach. SPX exceeded those expectations to close at 1687.99 up 2%. Headed into this week my thesis will be of caution. After riding the market up from 1630, it’s much more difficult to stay long with size. That is not to say I will be […]
SPX finished last week up 1.4%. Last weeks range was 1633.41 which happened on Tuesday to Friday’s high of 1664.83. All week we made higher highs and higher lows. I still believe that the correction is mostly over and if your time frame is longer than a week, I would even call the pullback from […]
Last week I wrote that I thought SPX would stay range bound between 1645 and 1685. I was wrong. Like most people, I don’t like to be wrong, but what’s more important than being wrong is how I deal with it. My approach was not to get upset or to blame the markets, Syria, Obama, […]
So as not to fill your stream with tons of open interest this Sunday (don’t know if I will do it every week), I am combining the high beta open interest charts here. I will update SOME of them on twitter/stocktwits throughout the week. I don’t know which ones I will continue to update and […]
I saw this tweet earlier by Ryan Detrick regarding the put to call ratio. Here is the chart he posted (which can also be found here http://stocktwits.com/message/14247255) The put/call ratio is often used to gauge investor sentiment; however, when it gets to extreme levels (as it is now), many traders view it as a […]
Last Week: Last week was all chop, which hopefully you had already anticipated. We are still range bound and hopefully we will come to some resolution after Big Ben speaks on Wednesday. Be careful that day though, the first move could be a false move. Until we breach 1597 or take out 1650, keep things […]
Before I begin, I just want to give a shout out to @traderstewie (who btw is a must follow if you aren’t already following him) for giving me the idea to change my blog name, which then motivated me to change my twitter handle (@Sassy_SPY) to something easier to remember and more fun :-). And […]
Well interesting week to say the least. If you have been following my tweets all week, then you know there was heavy 164 SPY puts being bought on Tuesday. In hindsight, they were very early, but by the end of the day Friday, they went into the money. Although, oddly enough they actually didn’t profit […]
October Expiration – Open Interest Ranges GOOG, AAPL, PCLN October expiration is coming and here is a look at three popular high beta stocks that often pin within there open interest range. Monthlies are more popular than weeklies so the numbers are much higher. Keep in mind that many people probably bought these calls and […]
The Open Interest AAPL, GOOG, & SPY Over the weekendI wrote a post here about weekly option expiration and pinning using open interest. Here are three different charts to look at for this weeks weekly expiration. I chose high flyers AAPL and GOOG due to their popularity and SPY to see if it can help […]
This Time ‘IS’ Different
According to the efficient market hypothesis, no investor has an advantage in predicting a return on a stock price because no one has access to information not already available to everyone else. This year has been a frustrating one for both the bulls and bears. Regardless of the lack of returns thus far in 2014, […]
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