Bear Bear Go Away, Come Again Another Day?

Last week here I stated that the SPY open interest suggested “that the market will be rangebound next week, with very little room to move higher, but room to give back some of last weeks gains.” I also thought that shallow dips would be bought, but laid out a game plan in case that failed to […]

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Surprise – The V is Back, but is it a Trap?

Last week here I wrote that my bias was up and there was a good chance SPY would find its way to the 210 level. I had not anticipated that it would continue higher when I originally wrote the post, but did update my views on twitter mid week. First, I cautioned any short attempts by […]

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Setups and Commentary for 7/20/15

What an insanely busy and good week. Good feeling to be on the right side of the trade. Next week we still have big earnings, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the market will have some big moves. In fact, typically after a move similar to what we just got there is either some consolidation or...

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Open Interest for Expiration 7/24/25

EPIC EPIC EPIC week! I had no idea we were going to put in a bounce like that last week, but good thing is I didn’t need to know to benefit. I had the direction right and that made all the difference. Let’s get right into next week. SPY: The open interest suggests that next week...

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Bounce or Bottom? Next Week’s Game Plan

Last week here I discussed my bias being up and that if we were to get a dip below 205 it was a gift and to buy it. That turned out to be very sound advice even with all the volatility. About a month ago I warned of an impending small correction, which as you can see […]

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Set-ups & Market Commentary for 7/13/15

I barely remember what my bias even was last week with all that ended up happening, but it turned out pretty great anyway. As I said last week I am not convinced the lows are in. I still think we could see another flush down, but we will get there when the time is right....

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Open Interest for 7/17/15

Killer week we had. Honestly, there is no way I could have traded the way we did without knowing open interest. Let’s hope the volatility stays. Next week is monthly expiration and just as a reminder, the open interest changes less (if at all) during monthly expiration. Let’s hop right into next week. SPY: Here’s...

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Open Interest for Expiration 7/10/15

The theme I outlined last week based on the open interest was bearish and that turned out to be correct. Most of it happened overnight and Monday so the rest of the week ended up being pretty slow. It was also a good demonstration of the importance of when to trade and when not to. Trading only...

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Set-ups & Market Commentary for 7/6/15

Well I’ve been saying I was smelling a correction around the corner. Now we are in correction territory and navigating through it. There is no way to know how we will open Monday morning which is why I decided not to keep any SPY options over the weekend. With all the uncertainty over the weekend...

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Will the Bears Cheer or Jeer Next Week?

For the last few weeks, I have been writing about a looming small correction. Last weekend here I was bearish biased and that turned out to be correct, but if you hadn’t come into Monday short it was definitely difficult to play. I would be surprised if the low for 2015 was in; however, my main […]

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Protected: June

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Will Bears Finally Catch a Break?

Last weekend here I was biased toward a bounce, but after further weakness.  That plan was shattered right from the get-go with a gap up Monday morning. Knowing I was wrong had me quickly adjust my expectations and for the most part sit on my hands. With all the Greek news, potential for window dressing, as well […]

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Open Interest for Expiration 7/02/15

Last week right from the get-go we opened around 212 SPY. That threw things off from what my bias had been and kept me very patient rather than forcing trades. I had outlined last weekend that I knew when I was wrong and that I would have to change my approach. All in, the information...

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week 6/29/15

Last week was tough and really there weren’t may trades to be had. Next week presents another challenge in that there is likely going to be some Greek news (perhaps over the weekend) and how the market will react to that is a total guess. Also, it’s the end of the quarter and there is...

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Breakout, Fake-out, or Something Else?

Last week here I wrote that I expected a dip toward the beginning of the week and that it was a buy for a rip into the end of the week. I also stated that I thought come Friday or Monday we would begin to sell off again which would start a larger correction (more […]

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Open Interest for Expiration 6/26/15

Monthly expirations are so awesome. They give so much information to help us make (or not make trades). Last week played out exactly how I thought it would. Now comes the harder part because although I still have a similar bias going forward (that we correct soon); I may need to adjust my timing. I don’t...

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Set-ups and Market Commentary for 6/22/15

Nailed last week perfectly! As you know I had expected a correction (rather than a tiny pull-back) to begin Friday. We did move lower Friday, but I didn’t see the kind of action that would lead me to believe the correction has begun. We are not overbought, there was no buying climax, and many individual...

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Open Interest for 6/19/15 Expiration

Last week worked out very nicely for us knowing where bounces would likely come in and that the market would likely continue to gravitate to the 210 pin. Next week is monthly OPEX so you know the ranges don’t often move to much throughout the week. As much as we can we will take advantage...

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Set-ups and Commentary for 6/15/15

Great week last week as we were as prepared as can be in a market that is unpredictable. For the last couple of weeks I have been discussing what I think is looming and I am still in that frame of mind. Before I go into it, let me preface it with I will remain...

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June Swoon, but First…..

Last week here I outlined levels of importance and what to expect based on those levels. That worked out perfectly. I said below SPY 209.5 odds increase of a touch to 207 (check). Then I said above 210 and good chance we see 212 (check). Then I said that we could easily keep gravitating to 210 all […]

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One Perspective on the Market for Next Week

Last week here, I wrote the importance of the 210 level, which did hold during the first dip of the week. Later in the week I updated the open interest over twitter and said that 209 was becoming more relevant and in fact price reached a low of 208.98 and held. We are now back in […]

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Open Interest for Expiration 6/12/15

Open interest was a fantastic guide for pretty much everything last week. One of the best uses of open interest that people fail to see is that it can prevent you from getting into stocks that technically look good, but their open interest doesn’t give it a favorable risk/reward ratio. Just as an example, both...

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week 6/8/15

The theme I had going into last week was that bonds (TLT) would drop and financials would catch a bid. That played out very nicely. I also outlined what is potentially setting up in the next couple weeks. Next week I intend to closely monitor all the correlations that would give us clues to see...

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Protected: May

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Next Week Determines it All

It’s sarcasm, calm down. I couldn’t think of (and wasn’t interested) in trying to be creative for my title this week. Anyway, as there isn’t much new to report I will make this quick and easy. Overbought/Oversold: There is very little interesting here, but will update it for regular readers. SPX stocks at 20-day highs: Completely […]

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Open Interest for Expiration 6/5/15

Last week was uneventful in the markets, hence why I had few trades. The pinning seemed to work very well though on most of the stocks. Now we enter June. Let’s get right into it. SPY: This is considered bullish as long as 210 holds. If price falls below 210 I think we could easily...

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week 6/1/15

Once again there isn’t much of anything new to report since the week pretty much ended where it started. We had a few good plays last week, but were mostly was hands off. Next week I believe there are more opportunities. Regarding the overall market you can see what I wrote in the open interest...

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Open Interest for Expiration 5/29/15

What an uneventful week except for having some nice profits on Thursday. Last expiration week for May coming up. SPY: I wish this told us more, but really the only thing it tells us is that if SPY can finally breakout it likely gets stopped in it’s track at 215. Other than that we need...

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week 5/26/15

Last weekend I had a ‘slightly’ bullish bias and it turns out we went ‘slightly’ higher, albeit most of  the gains took place early in the week. Overall for next week there really isn’t much more for me to say than what I have been saying on twitter all last week. We are consolidating at the highs,...

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Breakout or Fake-out, Again?

Last week here, I candidly admitted that I had no real bias coming into the week. That changed Tuesday morning at around 10:30, right about the time the market rallied higher never to look back. I even sent out a tweet right before the rally began to highlight what I was seeing.    Overbought/Oversold: I […]

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Open Interest for Expiration 5/22/15

Monthly opex over and we are back to weeklies. Was an interesting week with finally some movement after holding 210 for a few days. The big question of course is does the breakout hold. Because we are back to weeklies there will be more open interest changes during the week then there was last week....

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week 5/18/15

I’m glad I came into the week without a bias because I never would have been able to predict how the week played out. It also allowed me to be flexible and cover my SPY puts at pretty much the perfect time. Although we are at all time highs, it’s very hard to be super...

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Open Interest for Expiration 5/15/15

Another week where we went nowhere and yet had a decent down move as I had suspected based on the SPY open interest. Next week is Monthly OPEX and as you know those have much more staying power and rarely change throughout the week. Here we go: SPY: Currently best pin is at 210 and...

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Set-ups & Market Commentary for Week 5/11/15

First, I want to thank you all for your patience while I was less active due to visiting my family in LA. As we now know in hindsight I really didn’t miss much and it probably kept me out of trouble. The market is still in a range and until then I think scraping money out...

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The Big Move Is…..

Last week I was out of town and posted the SPY open interest on my twitter stating that it looked similar to the week prior and worth a read (which is here). The main take away was that any rally would likely be sold and a swift sell-off was a good probability. That indeed happened as Monday […]

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Set-ups & Commentary for Week 5/4/15

Last week we didn’t get caught chasing the market knowing that the odds did not favor a breakout, but did favor a swift sell-off which is what ended up happening. The market is still not trending frustrating everyone. As I noted in the open interest, next week is offering a similar set-up although rare to...

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Open Interest for Expiration 5/8/15

Continues to be a directionless market making the open interest even more important for clues. SPY of course never got anywhere near 215 just as I had premised last weekend and we did indeed get a pretty gross sell-off (although wish I had been in IWM puts instead of SPY!) I said on Friday SPY...

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Protected: APRIL

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Will Bulls Go For Gold or Pass the Baton to Bears?

Last week here I gave a few scenarios for next week with levels on SPY to guide you. Specifically, I said that if we gap higher or get above 208 then as long as that held, the bias was bullish. I also stated that, “Once again, the market is in a similar predicament in which […]

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week Starting 4/27/15

I had said last week that the way we closed was very similar to a couple weeks ago when we ended up going higher. We knew where support was and what to look for Monday morning to guide us. We gapped over all the puts and then monitored them all week giving us the clue that...

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Open Interest for Expiration 5/1/15

Once again we saw how the open interest was a great guide for SPY and the momo’s.  Next week again is weekly expiration again, which means that the open interest is more susceptible to changes during the week. It’s also the last week for the major earnings releases. We had a couple great weekly trades and...

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Stuck, Trend-less, Choppy Markets

Pick an adjective, there are a plethora to choose from in the English language, but they all describe the market environment we are trading in. The bull isn’t winning, the bear isn’t winning, although premium sellers are likely winning. Last week here, I wrote that the likely scenario would be a choppy to lower start to […]

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Open Interest for Expiration 4/24/15

The open interest range on SPY held the entire week from Monday to Friday. On top of that, all those stocks that I said had interesting open interests with one strike carrying both the calls and the puts – well, they indeed ended up pinning with most of the damage done Friday. We are back...

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week 4/20/15

Last week I said the market would likely be choppy do down at the start and that it was a buyable dip if support held. That turned out to be correct. Once we got above 210 I said that level would become support. I didn’t anticipate that we would get all the way back down...

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week 4/13/15

Last week the SPY open interest told us everything we needed to know right from the start of the week. We got over the 207 level very quickly which was a tell that bulls had control unless that got breached. Once I was able to adapt to the bullish environment then my mind shifted and...

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Open Interest for Expiration 4/17/15

Tons of pinning last week. The open interest was super helpful to gauge our range and also got us into that huge LNKD winner. The open interest is also why I went out a bit further on TWTR and AAPL because the pinning was just too strong. Next week is the big monthly OPEX plus earnings...

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Will This Breakout Be For Real?

If you missed my Benzinga radio interview, check it out here. Last week here my bias was more bearish; however, I clearly stated that if we got above SPY 207 then the downside would likely be limited. My caution to be ready for multiple scenarios was even quoted in MarketWatch Monday morning. That information proved to be […]

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Open Interest for Week Expiring 4/10/15

What an exhausting and yet boring week. Yet, in the end many of the open interest charts once again proved to show the range we would see very well (the quarterly and the weeklies). This is the second week in a row that I pretty much had to just sit on my hands because really there...

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week Starting 4/6/15

Another week of trend-less activity and from the futures action Friday things don’t look so pretty. Of course we have to take into context that futures were open 45 minutes and a lot of the move was very reactionary, but perhaps it’s the start of the washout I keep mentioning I’m looking for before a...

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Market in Need of A Washout

I will be live on Benzinga radio this Wednesday April 8th at 9:00 am. Last week here I wrote both about the potential for a rally at the start of the week with ‘window dressing’ and potential for quarter pinning. We got that rally. Then I gave a specific level to watch for to determine if the […]

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Protected: March

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Open Interest for Expiration 4/02/15

Last week sure had a lot of pinning. The open interest was definitely very helpful in letting us know where stocks were very likely NOT going to go. Some of you even had some good shorts with stocks that got above their ranges. Good job on those! Last week was boring for the most part...

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week 4/30/15

Gross week in the market. I’m very happy that I took a lot of profits on the swings a week earlier and that I didn’t chase anything once I saw 211 on SPY not being able to hold. I definitely didn’t see that sizable drop coming or I would have shorted, but at least I...

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Troubled Markets Ahead

First, I just wanted to thank all of you that tuned into Fox Business during my appearance last Tuesday. I appreciate all the support I have received as the media is still very new to me. Here is a link in case you missed it. Second, I wanted to mention that I will be attending […]

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Open Interest for Expiration 3/27/15

Quad witching over, hooray! We are back to the weeklies which typically have larger changes as the week goes on. The good news is even if the market is choppy next week I see a lot of good opportunities with these momentum stocks. The open interest and the technicals have aligned well for next week and...

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week 3/23/15

Last week was an AMAZING week for us. Not only did our short term trades work very well, but the swings we bought on dips paid off handsomely. That is the thing about this market. If you buy with good timing then you can sell when others are chasing. I would like to continue this great...

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The Path of Least Resistance is Higher

Note: I will be on Fox Business Tuesday at 4:00 pm so please tune in :-). Last week here I wrote that the most likely scenario would be a choppy start to the week followed by a rally in both equites and treasuries. That was right on and those prepared for it were paid handsomely. Keeping […]

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Open Interest for Expiration 3/20/15

Monthly OPEX is upon us so expect less movement in the open interest as the week goes on because many of these puts and calls were bought over a long period of time. That also means that the likelihood of these stocks staying within their ranges or pinning is pretty good. What’s interesting about next...

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Set-ups & Commentary for Week 3/16/15

Last week I had expected us to make a lower low, which we got. I also said that I was looking for a bottom within the next couple of weeks. It’s unclear if we have hit a secure bottom yet, but from the looks of it, if we haven’t there probably isn’t much lower to...

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Have We Bottomed Yet? Next Weeks Game Plan

Last week here I wrote that we were likely to bounce, but also to make a lower low. Both did indeed take place. The question now becomes have we bottomed or is there more downside to come and if so, how far? A look at how oversold the market is: 20-day highs went below 5% which […]

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A Bounce and A Lower Low – Which Comes First?

Last week here I wrote that the most likely scenario based on the evidence was a period of consolidation and/or pullback. Based on the open interest I also discussed the drop that would likely happen if we breached the 210 level on SPY more than once. Both scenarios played out and now we find ourselves threatening […]

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Set-ups & Commentary for Week Starting 3/9/15

I was expecting some consolidation with a possible pull-back last week and we got both. I had mentioned that it would be better to buy dips than breakouts and that patience would likely be rewarded. The set-up for next week is going to be tricky as I do expect a bounce, but I also expect...

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Open Interest for Expiration 3/15/15

I mentioned last weekend that the set-up wasn’t as favorable for taking many trades and that patience was going to be key. As usual the open interest gave me many clues as to what kind of market we would be facing and it didn’t favor chasing breakouts or being too eager to buy dips. Next week...

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week Starting 3/2/15

The last few weeks we have been able to ride the trend well and find good opportunities among select stocks. Next week I believe is going to be more challenging because I don’t see good risk/reward for either the upside or downside. My bias is that we have more room to the downside then the upside next week,...

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Open Interest for Expiration 3/28/15

The last few weeks have been great with lots of good opportunities. Unfortunately, I think next week is going to offer less opportunity and might require a bit more patience and tactical trades. The market is near a spot that doesn’t offer much reward in either direction (more about that in the set-ups/commentary post). My...

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A Healthy Market Pause Looming

Last week here I wrote “I took a look at every bullish weekly MACD signal cross since March 2009. In each of the 10 instances, the market continued to make higher highs the following week 100% of the time. Furthermore, in 9 of 10 instances the market also closed higher to end the week. The one instance […]

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Protected: February

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New Year, New Highs, Same Ole Bears

Last week here I wrote that the path of least resistance for the week ahead was higher, which played out nicely. This week, the same is true, yet as a short-term trader I am more cognizant of the psychology starting to shift regarding the current market place as I will explain. Last week, anecdotally speaking, my sense was […]

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week Starting 2/23/15

Last week we again were on the correct side of the market. A couple paper-cuts early in the week were made up for with very profitable trades at end of the week. More and more stocks are looking good, which is bullish; however, often when that happens it’s time to prepare for a mild pull-back/consolidation....

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Open Interest for Expiration 2/27/15

Last week the open interest did a pretty good job of helping us determine ranges as well as  breakouts (such as FB, TSLA) and which ones weren’t ready (such as GOOGL). Next week also has some good ranges and open interests that I think will lead to good trades in these momentum stocks. Lots of them below look...

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Is the Chop Really Over?

After over two months of rangebound choppy action we finally made all time highs on Friday. Those that have fought the recent rally can list a plethora or reasons why the recent high is bearish; however, let there be no mistake that closing at highs is bullish as it has been in every other instance since […]

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Open Interest for Expiration 2/20/15

Monthly expiration is upon us which means the open interest will change less throughout the week and allow us the opportunity to see potential ranges as well as trade them. It also gives us insight into how strong the below momentum stocks are based on how they respond to high call areas that typically align with...

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Set-ups & Commentary for Week Starting 2/17/15

After over two months of rangebound choppy action we finally made all time highs on Friday. This is bullish, especially since it is being met with at or near highs on the other indices. Being bullish though doesn’t necessarily mean it is going to go higher next week as a consolidation period is often followed...

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Open Interest for Expiration 2/13/15

As I said last week I think the open interest has been very useful recently. Sometimes (for instance during trending slower markets) open interest helps, but is more difficult to interpret and play. With the pick up in volatility I am noticing the calls and puts as being much more informative and helpful. Also, as...

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week Starting 2/9/15

We had a good week playing the volatility last week and as of now it appears we had a false breakdown (Monday morning) and are now breaking to the upside. With the recent volatility and still no sold evidence that we will in fact trend higher I will again lay out several scenarios we can...

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Stay On Your Toes Or Be Stepped On

Last week here I wrote that I wouldn’t be surprised if we went below SPY 200 and then went on to test the other side of the recent range at 204. Both did in fact take place before the market then went on to break the wedge that many market participants have had their eyes on. The […]

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Yo We Goin’ Lower Next Week or What?

After last week I haven’t read much except for bearish implications. I too have already discussed that in my posts, particularly the one titled An Intermittent Bottom Perhaps, but Swing Bottom in Question, posted on January 19th. I still do not think the bottom is in; however, I also don’t think there won’t be some shake-outs […]

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Open Interest for Expiration 2/6/15

With all the increased volatility I’m seeing larger strikes on both sides. This is a positive for us because it helps define ranges better and based on how this week plays out (whether we start down or start up) I will use the open interest ranges to find good trades. I noticed that the last...

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Set-ups and Weekly Commentary for Week Starting 2/2/15

This market is definitely making things very challenging. In my view that is a good thing because I strive off challenges and this market is certainly providing opportunities if you can be on the right side of them. I have only a couple of set-ups only because my main focus is going to be on...

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Protected: January 2015

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Next Weeks Road Map $SPY $QQQ $IWM

In last weeks post I talked about a probable bounce, but a new high being in question. We got the bounce and so the obvious question becomes do we see a 2013/2014 move to new highs now or are we putting in a lower high and continuing back into correction zone? With the Greek election outcome, a […]

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Open Interest for 1/30/15 Expiration

This could be a really fun week with earnings and potential run up to earnings. All the ones that have earnings I will post but without comment since earnings can and probably will change them. After earnings I will comment on them regarding what might happen next. I also will likely play weeklies next week. For...

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week Starting 1/26/15

So we got the bounce and of course the big question now is will it take us to new highs or has it now trapped many longs? With the Greek elections not going in the markets favor there is a chance for a gap down tonight/tomorrow. As usual, we are not going to know how...

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An Intermittent Bottom perhaps, but Swing Bottom in Question

As I mentioned in my post One Big Game of F***ery on Thursday, I think a lot of the price action last week had to do with January expiration. Given that it was a monthly expiration and the first one of the year it had quite a large amount of open calls and puts that when being closed or […]

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week Starting 1/20/15

Last week was completely crazy and as I said all week it was one big vacuum of premium. Basically the entire week just seemed to revolve around pinning. Obviously more was at work than that, but it would be hard to deny that options played a HUGE role. Anyway, we did end up going lower...

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Open Interest for Expiration 1/23/15

Now that the monthly January OPEX is over, the pinning will again become a little more muted so the ranges will be more flexible and we can hopefully get better movement in the market. SPY: This one is interesting and I am going to show you two different views. The first one shows where we...

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One Big Game of F***ery!

It’s been a while since I’ve mused, and hoping I begin to contribute more regularly again. Let’s discuss 2015 a bit shall we. What a game of f***ery. Traders love to say the volatility provides such a great environment to make quick dough and they are correct; however, much easier said than done. As much […]

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week Starting 1/5/15

Well well well, not the most fantastic start to the new year. This market is in a very difficult spot as the overall trend is still bullish, seasonality is bullish, selling has not been strong (as seen by the breadth levels), volume has been especially low BUT price action has been very poor the last...

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Open Interest for Expiration 1/9/15

The momentum stocks aren’t acting very well lately. Not only that but they aren’t giving much opportunity because although they aren’t giving large upside moves, they aren’t giving large downside moves either. They are for the most part in no-mans land and hopefully with the new year and portfolio’s readjusting we can see which ones...

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Open Interest Update for Expiration 1/2/15

Happy New Year! The last trading day of holiday trading (a long two weeks, but always a needed break to reset). I will once again go over the updates for all the open interest charts for tomorrows expiration for those of you trading intra-day during this week and need a refresher. I don’t even have hopium...

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week Starting 12/29/15

2015 is about to be upon us!!! Given that not a whole lot changed last week my stance remains the same as last week. The trend is up and I am bullish overall. Regarding just next week though, I am neutral in the sense that some chop and consolidation is definitely a possibility and would...

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Open Interest for Expiration 1/2/15

First time writing expiration for 2015!!! Beginning of the new year, new money coming in, new types of challenges and new ways to make $$$$$$. I have mentioned this once before, but with the popularity of options increasing I am noticing weekly options and pinning has been changing a bit. I can’t conclude anything yet, but...

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Open Interest Update for 12/26/14

Merry Christmas or Happy Holidays! I hope you guys are all taking time off and not trading much. I promise the markets will be there later with many opportunities. Try to enjoy time off when wall street is off and trading volume is pretty negligent. I am updated all of the open interest for those...

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Open Interest For Expiration 12/26/14

The bottom line is the trend is up. Next week is a shortened week and typically a bullish one. I looked at last years open interest charts and how each stock did during this week. (Note, this by no means is an indication of what will happen this year, but I thought it would at...

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week Starting 12/22/14

Simply stated the trend is up. Last week I wrote that my bias was for a bottom to be put in Wednesday and we got that exact thing. I am bullish for next week as you are aware and am holding IWM calls for a swing trade and looking for a breakout. The only thing I don’t...

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week Starting 12/15/14

Following seasonality almost perfectly the market fell out of bed last week. It has gotten pretty oversold on several measures, but could still get more oversold especially with everyone looking for the bounce. As of right now I still do believe we rally into the new year. What gets me a bit nervous is that...

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Open Interest for Expiration 12/20/14

Next week is monthly expiration so there is more calls and puts on each side that can push stocks around. VIX also expires on Wednesday morning. This month is one of the first in a very long time that there are more puts then calls so it seems people didn’t buy protection which probably exacerbated the sell...

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week Starting 12/8/14

The market is still very tight and rangebound with a more upside bias. It hasn’t done much over the last few weeks except for slowly creep up with tiny pull-backs not really letting anyone in. There is no saying how long that will continue. Seasonally next week tends to be the weakest in December (the...

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