pinning

Insights from the Open Interest for Next Week

Last week here I showed where there would likely be call resistance on SPY prior to expiration. At the start of the week SPY blew through the high call resistance with strong breadth and never looked back. It was one of the first times in a while SPY was able to make such a leap […]

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September OPEX

Last week here I suggested that both the Wednesday and Friday SPY open interest supported a rangebound week. That came to fruition and there really only was one good opportunity which came Tuesday when SPY fell below two levels of high puts. Knowing where the likely pin would be Wednesday, combined with technical support levels, […]

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What Open Interest Says about Next Week

I’m back and here is your SPY open interest for next week. If you want the real goods you should subscribe below. SPY-W: (41 of 51 pins since Wednesday expiration inception).* The current best pin is clearly 247. There is also more puts at that strike than calls making it pretty good support coupled with the […]

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Open Interest Clues to Next Week

Last week here along with the SPY open interest notes, I shared my thoughts that I did not believe the lows were in yet. The open interest turned out to be very helpful (as it usually is) because when SPY traded above the high calls for Wednesday’s expiration (which happened to also be technical resistance) […]

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August OPEX

Last week here I showed both the SPY Wednesday and Friday expiration. I pointed out the very good put support for Wednesday and the call resistance (248). I also pointed out that there was pretty much no put support for Friday. If you weren’t suspicious of the Tuesday morning up move  (which blew through the […]

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Your Open Interest Road Map to Next Week

Last week here I displayed the SPY open interest for Wednesday and Friday. The Wednesday expiration pinned where I described the best pin to be. The Friday expiration changed mid-week, which I posted to twitter since the change was fairly significant and changed the odds of where Friday would close. Indeed Friday also resulted in a […]

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Your Open Interest Map to the Start of August

Last week here I gave you the SPY parameters for both Wednesday and Friday (and updated them over twitter). What you did with them I have no idea, but they worked well (see below for last weeks pin information). For newbies to open interest, knowing where SPY won’t go is often just as valuable as […]

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Your Open Interest Road Map to Next Week

Last week here I gave the SPY open interest range and also wrote that based on last Friday’s close higher prices were likely coming. I clearly laid out where there was put support and where there was call resistance – both got hit and rejected price. Knowing where SPY can go and will likely fail is […]

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OPEX Time

Last week here I stated the open interest favored higher prices and was “notably bullish.” I showed that there were no calls in the way of making new highs, something that doesn’t happen very often. And now here we are at all time highs. Open Interest: SPY-W: SPY-W: (36 of 44 pins since Wednesday expiration inception).* The current […]

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Next Weeks Open Interest Favors Higher Prices

It’s been a couple of weeks since I’ve posted, but in the meantime I have tweeted the weekly open interest for SPY charts and continue to keep track of them which you can view at the bottom. Open Interest: SPY-W: (35 of 43 pins since Wednesday expiration inception). Taken at face value this open interest is bullish […]

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Will That 240 Strike Come into Play This Week?

Last week here in the summary of my post I wrote: “In Sum, the grind higher is likely to continue in SPY; however, a pullback into support is possible and also a buying opportunity if it happens toward the beginning of the week…..“. This was available for anyone to read and was a HUGE trade […]

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What Open Interest Says About Next Week

Two weeks ago here, I wrote that if the SPX gaps filled it was a good buying opportunity. Then last week here, I wrote that the market would likely grind higher once again and possibly break new highs after the Wednesday SPY expiration. Yes, yes and yes! Open Interest: SPY-W: (29 of 37 pins since Wednesday […]

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Back to a Slow Grind

Last week here I discussed that it would be difficult for SPY to stay over 240 based on the open interest for both Wednesday and Friday expiration. I also said that if SPY took out the lows from the previous week that it may be headed for both it’s gap fills and added that it was […]

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Will Friday’s Open Interest Block the Bulls Again?

Last week here I said SPX was likely to make a new high – Check ✅ (albeit by a very small amount). I also showed that both the Wednesday and Friday open interests had calls stacked at 240. Going into the week I believed that the right set-up existed for bulls to really push SPY over […]

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Strength Begets Strength

Last week here I said the path of least resistance remained higher and that SPX was likely to make a new high in the coming weeks. I also discussed the heavy call resistance for both Wednesday and Friday’s expiration. In the end, the call resistance did hold SPY back for most of the week, but the […]

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Price Action Says to Stay in May

Last week there was no post, but in previous posts, both at the end of March and the beginning of April (see here) I continued to suggest that SPX would likely get to old highs or make new ones before a more meaningful correction took place. That has now been achieved as SPX went within 2 […]

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A Tight Range with a Slightly Bullish Bias (Says the OI)

Last week here I discussed that the overall trend was still higher, but that bulls needed to “curb their enthusiasm” as there were a lot of open calls that would act as resistance for both the Wednesday and Friday SPY expiration. I then updated that during the week over twitter with the message that bears should […]

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Bulls Should Curb their Enthusiasm Next Week

Last week here I summed things up with: “Currently, the market is near or already oversold and likely to bounce soon if that has not already begun late Friday. Should price immediately go lower it will become even more oversold and not a place to initiate shorts.” Furthermore, I discussed that the open interest suggested that the […]

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What Next Weeks Open Interest Suggests for the Market

Last week here I wrote that the path of least resistance remained higher despite the possibility of remaining in a range. Importantly, I showed the Wednesday open interest and suggested that pullbacks to or under 237 would likely be bought. Thus, the pullback early in the week provided an excellent opportunity to get long into Wednesday. Below you […]

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Yellen, OPEX & Bears Oh My!

Last week here I made the case for a likely pullback/pause. Indeed, the market did pullback, but by the end of the week recovered some of its losses to close 10 points lower than last Friday. Next week is Quad witching/OPEX, which tends to have a bullish bias. Although I do think it’s possible for SPX to […]

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Does the Energizer Bull Have any Battery Left?

Last week here I suggested that there was likely a new high to be made. That indeed worked out, but for the first time in a while some cracks* began to show late in the week. I am not ready to call for a pullback and would not be surprised to see another new high […]

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How Open Interest Can Signal a Trend Change

Last week here I stated “there is no reason not to expect another new high to be made as the edge continues to reside with the bulls.” That worked out nicely and I am now making a similar statement regarding next week. There is one wild card that can derail the bull run (namely Trump addressing Congress […]

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The Countdown is Finally Over

Last week here, I was bullish biased thinking the market wouldn’t do too much as it waited for the Fed, but that it would at least hold up due to all the puts that had potential to act as support. Instead price struggled from the start of the week to push over the puts and […]

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Have We Bottomed Yet? Next Weeks Game Plan

Last week here I wrote that we were likely to bounce, but also to make a lower low. Both did indeed take place. The question now becomes have we bottomed or is there more downside to come and if so, how far? A look at how oversold the market is: 20-day highs went below 5% which […]

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A Bounce and A Lower Low – Which Comes First?

Last week here I wrote that the most likely scenario based on the evidence was a period of consolidation and/or pullback. Based on the open interest I also discussed the drop that would likely happen if we breached the 210 level on SPY more than once. Both scenarios played out and now we find ourselves threatening […]

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One Big Game of F***ery!

It’s been a while since I’ve mused, and hoping I begin to contribute more regularly again. Let’s discuss 2015 a bit shall we. What a game of f***ery. Traders love to say the volatility provides such a great environment to make quick dough and they are correct; however, much easier said than done. As much […]

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What is MaxPain or Options Pinning?

Investopedia defines maxpain as: the point at which options expire worthless. The term, max pain, stems from the Maximum Pain theory, which states that most traders who buy and hold options contracts until expiration will lose money. According to the theory, this is due to the tendency for the price of a underlying stock to […]

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