Last week here I outlined the three open interest charts for SPY which pinned fairly well for the most part (as you can see at the bottom of this post). Wednesday didn’t pin, but after the 283 calls closed (I showed that via twitter Wednesday morning), the resistance became much less powerful allowing price to […]
Last week the bulls held control as price closed over all the high calls for each expiration. Next week is monthly options expiration. If you have not yet subscribed to my weekly freebie you can do so below to get next weeks free trade IDEA (not alert – if you want an alert you need to […]
Hope everyone had a lovely holiday. Last week the free weekly post was off, but you can see below that all three expirations for SPY did indeed pin. In fact, those that either belong to my service or took it upon themselves to look at Friday’s open interest would have known the high likelihood of […]
Last week here we had three expirations that didn’t give much in the way of a “best pin,” but did offer information about where there would be high put support and/or call resistance. I mentioned the high puts at 276 for Friday’s expiration and said that upon a first touch or break of that it […]
Last week here we had 3 different ranges to gauge where SPY would likely not close on each expiration day. Even after undercutting the Tuesday high puts, by expiration all the puts fell back out of the money. Bottom line, the ranges worked and are always very helpful to know because they offer buy or […]
If you have not yet subscribed to my weekly freebie you can do so below to get next weeks free trade IDEA (not alert – if you want an alert you need to be a subscriber) sent to your mailbox Monday morning. Last week we were off, but two weeks ago was $FB and it was […]
Last week here I gave the the three SPY open interest charts which pretty much suggested a rangebound market. Not only was it rangebound, but all three expirations pinned almost perfectly. That’s a market that doesn’t have strong buyers or sellers. You can see their pins at the bottom of this post. If you have […]
Last week here there was definitely a bias for both some upside (given the high 262 puts) as well as a bit of a rangebound market because of Friday’s expiration. In the end the Monday open interest failed to keep prices up, but the down move did provide a great buying opportunity for Wednesday’s pin. […]
Last week here I showed the several open interests for SPY expiration and for the most part there was lots of put support. I described what can happen if that put support didn’t hold (delta hedging), but it didn’t come to that as it held and price stayed above. If you were shorting before those […]
Last week here we had three SPY expirations, but the most important one was Friday’s because it was monthly expiration. The Monday expiration pinned well, the Wednesday was so so, but the Friday one was what really affected price. SPY got as high as 280.41 last week and if you read my post you knew […]
What you could learn from last weeks rare open interest: Last week here I discussed that SPY 273 was likely a magnet, but that it probably would not pin there. I described how you could use the type of open interest we had (a rare open interest) to determine the type of trading environment we […]
Lessons you can learn from last weeks open interest: Last week here I showed three SPY expirations as we now have Monday expiration. I showed where the best Monday pin would be, but said that if we opened and held over 275 that it was a go with and it likely wouldn’t pin. That indeed […]
Last week here I outlined the levels of high puts and calls that would likely act as support or resistance respectively. I also mentioned the possibility of a 270 SPY pin for Wednesday. Although the price action Wednesday morning was tricky to see 270 was still a possibility, if you were looking for the correct […]
Last week here I discussed that there were more puts in the open interest and that if price could stay over them then there was a lot of room higher. I discussed that 266 was a bit of an inflection point which is right where price stalled on both Monday and Tuesday. Once it cleared […]
Last week here I discussed the high calls a 280 and mentioned that if price got and held above it it was not worth fighting. Indeed price flew above that level at the start of the week and never looked back. If you have not yet subscribed to my weekly freebie you can do so […]
Last week here I discussed that it was monthly OPEX and thus, the obvious pin which was way below price would likely fail. I also said that should price fall back to SPY 256 it was likely a good buy opportunity (that information was not based on the open interest, but technical analysis). Price got to […]
Last week here I wrote that if SPY could not hold over 265 early in the week it was unlikely to get back over that level until at least after Wednesday expiration because of all the high calls. SPY closed under 265 on Monday and with that came a very small pullback, but SPY didn’t […]
Last week here I stated that if price were to open and hold above the high SPY calls of 260 next week to go with it and not fight it. If you did go with that then you were handsomely reward as SPY gained over 2% during the week. If you struggled to make gains […]
Hope everyone had a lovely Thanksgiving weekend. Open Interest: SPY-W: (48 of 63 pins since Wednesday expiration inception).* The only thing that sticks out is the high 260 calls. If price opens Monday over 260 or quickly gets over that level and doesn’t look back then you want to go with because it is showing great […]
Last week here I said that SPY was likely to make a new high and showed the resistance and support areas for SPY’s Wednesday and Friday’s expiration. Both expirations pinned fairly well, which is no surprise given the slow nature of the move. SPY is likely to make another new high again in the next […]
Last week here I showed the open interest for both Wednesday and Friday expiration and wrote that after two closes over the high calls it was likely that SPX would take some time to consolidate and was unlikely to close over the high calls again. SPX consolidated in a very strong tight range and indeed […]
Last week here I gave the basic SPY call and put parameters. Both Wednesday and Friday SPY did what it does best….pinned. Onto next week: Open Interest: SPY-W: (43/54 since Wednesday expiration inception).* The current best pin is between 249.5 and 250, but can easily change if there is decent price movement early in the week. […]
Last week here I suggested that both the Wednesday and Friday SPY open interest supported a rangebound week. That came to fruition and there really only was one good opportunity which came Tuesday when SPY fell below two levels of high puts. Knowing where the likely pin would be Wednesday, combined with technical support levels, […]
I’m back and here is your SPY open interest for next week. If you want the real goods you should subscribe below. SPY-W: (41 of 51 pins since Wednesday expiration inception).* The current best pin is clearly 247. There is also more puts at that strike than calls making it pretty good support coupled with the […]
Last week here along with the SPY open interest notes, I shared my thoughts that I did not believe the lows were in yet. The open interest turned out to be very helpful (as it usually is) because when SPY traded above the high calls for Wednesday’s expiration (which happened to also be technical resistance) […]
Last week here I showed both the SPY Wednesday and Friday expiration. I pointed out the very good put support for Wednesday and the call resistance (248). I also pointed out that there was pretty much no put support for Friday. If you weren’t suspicious of the Tuesday morning up move (which blew through the […]
Last week here I displayed the SPY open interest for Wednesday and Friday. The Wednesday expiration pinned where I described the best pin to be. The Friday expiration changed mid-week, which I posted to twitter since the change was fairly significant and changed the odds of where Friday would close. Indeed Friday also resulted in a […]
Last week here I gave you the SPY parameters for both Wednesday and Friday (and updated them over twitter). What you did with them I have no idea, but they worked well (see below for last weeks pin information). For newbies to open interest, knowing where SPY won’t go is often just as valuable as […]
Last week here I gave the SPY open interest range and also wrote that based on last Friday’s close higher prices were likely coming. I clearly laid out where there was put support and where there was call resistance – both got hit and rejected price. Knowing where SPY can go and will likely fail is […]
Last week here I stated the open interest favored higher prices and was “notably bullish.” I showed that there were no calls in the way of making new highs, something that doesn’t happen very often. And now here we are at all time highs. Open Interest: SPY-W: SPY-W: (36 of 44 pins since Wednesday expiration inception).* The current […]
It’s been a couple of weeks since I’ve posted, but in the meantime I have tweeted the weekly open interest for SPY charts and continue to keep track of them which you can view at the bottom. Open Interest: SPY-W: (35 of 43 pins since Wednesday expiration inception). Taken at face value this open interest is bullish […]
Last week here in the summary of my post I wrote: “In Sum, the grind higher is likely to continue in SPY; however, a pullback into support is possible and also a buying opportunity if it happens toward the beginning of the week…..“. This was available for anyone to read and was a HUGE trade […]
Two weeks ago here, I wrote that if the SPX gaps filled it was a good buying opportunity. Then last week here, I wrote that the market would likely grind higher once again and possibly break new highs after the Wednesday SPY expiration. Yes, yes and yes! Open Interest: SPY-W: (29 of 37 pins since Wednesday […]
Last week here I discussed that it would be difficult for SPY to stay over 240 based on the open interest for both Wednesday and Friday expiration. I also said that if SPY took out the lows from the previous week that it may be headed for both it’s gap fills and added that it was […]
Last week here I said SPX was likely to make a new high – Check ✅ (albeit by a very small amount). I also showed that both the Wednesday and Friday open interests had calls stacked at 240. Going into the week I believed that the right set-up existed for bulls to really push SPY over […]
Last week here I said the path of least resistance remained higher and that SPX was likely to make a new high in the coming weeks. I also discussed the heavy call resistance for both Wednesday and Friday’s expiration. In the end, the call resistance did hold SPY back for most of the week, but the […]
Last week there was no post, but in previous posts, both at the end of March and the beginning of April (see here) I continued to suggest that SPX would likely get to old highs or make new ones before a more meaningful correction took place. That has now been achieved as SPX went within 2 […]
Last week here I laid out reasons why both the bulls and bears should curb their enthusiasm. The open interest suggested that price action would likely be rangebound, with a slight edge to the bulls. As the week progressed and the market moved lower, the open interested shifted a bit not giving much of an […]
Last week here I discussed that the overall trend was still higher, but that bulls needed to “curb their enthusiasm” as there were a lot of open calls that would act as resistance for both the Wednesday and Friday SPY expiration. I then updated that during the week over twitter with the message that bears should […]
Last week here I summed things up with: “Currently, the market is near or already oversold and likely to bounce soon if that has not already begun late Friday. Should price immediately go lower it will become even more oversold and not a place to initiate shorts.” Furthermore, I discussed that the open interest suggested that the […]
Last week here I stated that the edge continued to remain with the bulls, but that I expected a slow and rangebound week. Obviously, I was wrong in that I didn’t see the range breaking to the downside; however, minus the drop on Tuesday, the rest of the week was definitely slow and rangebound. I also […]
Last week here I wrote that the path of least resistance remained higher despite the possibility of remaining in a range. Importantly, I showed the Wednesday open interest and suggested that pullbacks to or under 237 would likely be bought. Thus, the pullback early in the week provided an excellent opportunity to get long into Wednesday. Below you […]
Last week here I made the case for a likely pullback/pause. Indeed, the market did pullback, but by the end of the week recovered some of its losses to close 10 points lower than last Friday. Next week is Quad witching/OPEX, which tends to have a bullish bias. Although I do think it’s possible for SPX to […]
Last week here I suggested that there was likely a new high to be made. That indeed worked out, but for the first time in a while some cracks* began to show late in the week. I am not ready to call for a pullback and would not be surprised to see another new high […]
Last week here I stated “there is no reason not to expect another new high to be made as the edge continues to reside with the bulls.” That worked out nicely and I am now making a similar statement regarding next week. There is one wild card that can derail the bull run (namely Trump addressing Congress […]
Last week here I wrote “For next week, if SPX stays below 1872, then assume all bounces should be sold and price is likely headed to 1850, and then near or below 1812.” Furthermore, I posted the open interest for SPY which suggested a close over 185 by Friday. Somehow, both things worked out even though […]
Last week was a good example of what can happen when price begins to fall through heavy put strikes and something that short term traders should be aware of even if they don’t trade options. Last week here, I posted the open interest for the start of the week which had a more bullish look […]
Last week here, I was bullish biased thinking the market wouldn’t do too much as it waited for the Fed, but that it would at least hold up due to all the puts that had potential to act as support. Instead price struggled from the start of the week to push over the puts and […]
It’s been a while since I’ve mused, and hoping I begin to contribute more regularly again. Let’s discuss 2015 a bit shall we. What a game of f***ery. Traders love to say the volatility provides such a great environment to make quick dough and they are correct; however, much easier said than done. As much […]
October OPEX + Monday & Wednesday Open Interest
Last week here I discussed the possibility for delta hedging. If you don’t understand the concept I encourage you to take the time to read about here. Although it doesn’t happen often, it’s helpful to know when it is a possibility and the outcome of it. If you have not yet subscribed to my weekly […]
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