spy

OPEX Time

Last week here I stated the open interest favored higher prices and was “notably bullish.” I showed that there were no calls in the way of making new highs, something that doesn’t happen very often. And now here we are at all time highs. Open Interest: SPY-W: SPY-W: (36 of 44 pins since Wednesday expiration inception).* The current […]

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Next Weeks Open Interest Favors Higher Prices

It’s been a couple of weeks since I’ve posted, but in the meantime I have tweeted the weekly open interest for SPY charts and continue to keep track of them which you can view at the bottom. Open Interest: SPY-W: (35 of 43 pins since Wednesday expiration inception). Taken at face value this open interest is bullish […]

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Bullish Open Interest Wednesday, But Less so For Qtr/Month End

I’ve been on vacation for a bit, but I just got back so here is a very quick post for next week. Open Interest: SPY-W: (33 of 41 pins since Wednesday expiration inception).* This open interest is more bullish and currently suggests a pin of 234 to 244. With that said, there is very little call resistance […]

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What Open Interest Says About Next Week

Two weeks ago here, I wrote that if the SPX gaps filled it was a good buying opportunity. Then last week here, I wrote that the market would likely grind higher once again and possibly break new highs after the Wednesday SPY expiration. Yes, yes and yes! Open Interest: SPY-W: (29 of 37 pins since Wednesday […]

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Back to a Slow Grind

Last week here I discussed that it would be difficult for SPY to stay over 240 based on the open interest for both Wednesday and Friday expiration. I also said that if SPY took out the lows from the previous week that it may be headed for both it’s gap fills and added that it was […]

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Will Friday’s Open Interest Block the Bulls Again?

Last week here I said SPX was likely to make a new high – Check ✅ (albeit by a very small amount). I also showed that both the Wednesday and Friday open interests had calls stacked at 240. Going into the week I believed that the right set-up existed for bulls to really push SPY over […]

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Strength Begets Strength

Last week here I said the path of least resistance remained higher and that SPX was likely to make a new high in the coming weeks. I also discussed the heavy call resistance for both Wednesday and Friday’s expiration. In the end, the call resistance did hold SPY back for most of the week, but the […]

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April OPEX

Last week here I laid out reasons why both the bulls and bears should curb their enthusiasm. The open interest suggested that price action would likely be rangebound, with a slight edge to the bulls. As the week progressed and the market moved lower, the open interested shifted a bit not giving much of an […]

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A Tight Range with a Slightly Bullish Bias (Says the OI)

Last week here I discussed that the overall trend was still higher, but that bulls needed to “curb their enthusiasm” as there were a lot of open calls that would act as resistance for both the Wednesday and Friday SPY expiration. I then updated that during the week over twitter with the message that bears should […]

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Bulls Should Curb their Enthusiasm Next Week

Last week here I summed things up with: “Currently, the market is near or already oversold and likely to bounce soon if that has not already begun late Friday. Should price immediately go lower it will become even more oversold and not a place to initiate shorts.” Furthermore, I discussed that the open interest suggested that the […]

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A Trend Change? What the Open Interest Says for Next Week

Last week here I stated that the edge continued to remain with the bulls, but that I expected a slow and rangebound week. Obviously, I was wrong in that I didn’t see the range breaking to the downside; however, minus the drop on Tuesday, the rest of the week was definitely slow and rangebound. I also […]

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What Next Weeks Open Interest Suggests for the Market

Last week here I wrote that the path of least resistance remained higher despite the possibility of remaining in a range. Importantly, I showed the Wednesday open interest and suggested that pullbacks to or under 237 would likely be bought. Thus, the pullback early in the week provided an excellent opportunity to get long into Wednesday. Below you […]

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Yellen, OPEX & Bears Oh My!

Last week here I made the case for a likely pullback/pause. Indeed, the market did pullback, but by the end of the week recovered some of its losses to close 10 points lower than last Friday. Next week is Quad witching/OPEX, which tends to have a bullish bias. Although I do think it’s possible for SPX to […]

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Does the Energizer Bull Have any Battery Left?

Last week here I suggested that there was likely a new high to be made. That indeed worked out, but for the first time in a while some cracks* began to show late in the week. I am not ready to call for a pullback and would not be surprised to see another new high […]

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How Open Interest Can Signal a Trend Change

Last week here I stated “there is no reason not to expect another new high to be made as the edge continues to reside with the bulls.” That worked out nicely and I am now making a similar statement regarding next week. There is one wild card that can derail the bull run (namely Trump addressing Congress […]

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No One Has a Clue, but for Next Week Know This…

Last week here I wrote “For next week, if SPX stays below 1872, then assume all bounces should be sold and price is likely headed to 1850, and then near or below 1812.” Furthermore, I posted the open interest for SPY which suggested a close over 185 by Friday. Somehow, both things worked out even though […]

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Important Lessons From Last Week – Delta Hedging & Options

Last week was a good example of what can happen when price begins to fall through heavy put strikes and something that short term traders should be aware of even if they don’t trade options. Last week here, I posted the open interest for the start of the week which had a more bullish look […]

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The Path of Least Resistance is Higher

Note: I will be on Fox Business Tuesday at 4:00 pm so please tune in :-). Last week here I wrote that the most likely scenario would be a choppy start to the week followed by a rally in both equites and treasuries. That was right on and those prepared for it were paid handsomely. Keeping […]

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A Healthy Market Pause Looming

Last week here I wrote “I took a look at every bullish weekly MACD signal cross since March 2009. In each of the 10 instances, the market continued to make higher highs the following week 100% of the time. Furthermore, in 9 of 10 instances the market also closed higher to end the week. The one instance […]

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New Year, New Highs, Same Ole Bears

Last week here I wrote that the path of least resistance for the week ahead was higher, which played out nicely. This week, the same is true, yet as a short-term trader I am more cognizant of the psychology starting to shift regarding the current market place as I will explain. Last week, anecdotally speaking, my sense was […]

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Summer of Set-ups

The statistics state that we are about to embark on the worst two months of the year for stock returns. I say rubbish. How great would it be if Wall Street was trying to enjoy their Hampton summer homes expecting dreadful market returns in June and July only to be met with fear of missing […]

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This Market is on Crack Yo, Part III #SassyMusings 5/8/14

All day long, WTF goes through my head. Musk had a mixed day…..TSLA taken out back, SCTY rises like the sun (except in NYC where it never rises anymore). PCLN almost did a round trip. Get it, “trip.” Ok never mind, lame I know. If you think you know something, you don’t. Or I don’t. […]

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Bird Down Part II #SassyMusings 4/29/14

I am recycling pictures from last earnings. Honestly not sure why so many people went long TWTR before earnings. Not that I’m hating, but it wasn’t like they did anything meaningful to make me think metrics had changed. Plus even earnings beats have been beaten up this season. Anyway, if you are down, I am […]

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