June OPEX + SPY Mon & Wed Expiration

Last week here I showed the thee open interest ranges for SPY. They shifted a bit during the week with Monday and Wednesday both pinning. Wednesday actually landed right on the high calls, which demonstrated a lot of strength and lo and behold that strength continued into Friday and closed above the high calls.

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Open Interest: If you want more information on how to read the high calls and puts in the open interest see here.

SPY-M: (10 of 15 for pins since Monday expiration inception).* The best pin for Monday’s expiration is 277 to 278, but there is a decent size range from 276 to 280 that it can easily close within. 

SPY-W: (68 of 91 pins since Wednesday expiation inception).* There is really only two things to see for Wednesday’s expiration. There are high puts at 273 which means very high odds that price does not close below there on Wednesday. To the upside there is some call resistance at 278, but it’s not that high so any decent strength will be able to get through it. There is no call resistance as of now above that level. Thus, holding over 278 is a go with scenario; however, Friday’s expiration should be kept in mind which you will see below. Also remember this can shift during the week.

SPY-F: (53 of 84 pins since I began tracking Friday’s).* Because this is a monthly expiration there are high odds that the open interest won’t shift much throughout the week. Also, obvious pins on monthly expiration tend to not work so it would be wise to ignore the 270 calls and puts for now. The strikes to pay attention to at the start of the week are 275 and 280. If price remains strongly over 275 then it should also be ignored. If, instead, we do drop below there next week then it will make it harder to get back over that level for the rest of the week. Staying above leaves only the 280 calls that will likely act as resistance at least on the first touch. However, if price is strong enough to get above a second time and hold then those 280 calls may help push it even higher due to delta hedging.

Pinning Stuff:

*An explanation as to how I define range pinning can be found here. More information about what pinning is can be found under the education section or here.

Monday 6/4: Successful pin. 

Wednesday 6/6: Successful pin. Seems like someone wanted price to land on those calls.

Friday 6/8: Failed pin to the upside.

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