Will Bulls Go For Gold or Pass the Baton to Bears?

Last week here I gave a few scenarios for next week with levels on SPY to guide you. Specifically, I said that if we gap higher or get above 208 then as long as that held, the bias was bullish. I also stated that, “Once again, the market is in a similar predicament in which […]

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week Starting 4/27/15

I had said last week that the way we closed was very similar to a couple weeks ago when we ended up going higher. We knew where support was and what to look for Monday morning to guide us. We gapped over all the puts and then monitored them all week giving us the clue that...

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Open Interest for Expiration 5/1/15

Once again we saw how the open interest was a great guide for SPY and the momo’s.  Next week again is weekly expiration again, which means that the open interest is more susceptible to changes during the week. It’s also the last week for the major earnings releases. We had a couple great weekly trades and...

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Stuck, Trend-less, Choppy Markets

Pick an adjective, there are a plethora to choose from in the English language, but they all describe the market environment we are trading in. The bull isn’t winning, the bear isn’t winning, although premium sellers are likely winning. Last week here, I wrote that the likely scenario would be a choppy to lower start to […]

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Open Interest for Expiration 4/24/15

The open interest range on SPY held the entire week from Monday to Friday. On top of that, all those stocks that I said had interesting open interests with one strike carrying both the calls and the puts – well, they indeed ended up pinning with most of the damage done Friday. We are back...

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week 4/20/15

Last week I said the market would likely be choppy do down at the start and that it was a buyable dip if support held. That turned out to be correct. Once we got above 210 I said that level would become support. I didn’t anticipate that we would get all the way back down...

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week 4/13/15

Last week the SPY open interest told us everything we needed to know right from the start of the week. We got over the 207 level very quickly which was a tell that bulls had control unless that got breached. Once I was able to adapt to the bullish environment then my mind shifted and...

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Open Interest for Expiration 4/17/15

Tons of pinning last week. The open interest was super helpful to gauge our range and also got us into that huge LNKD winner. The open interest is also why I went out a bit further on TWTR and AAPL because the pinning was just too strong. Next week is the big monthly OPEX plus earnings...

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Will This Breakout Be For Real?

If you missed my Benzinga radio interview, check it out here. Last week here my bias was more bearish; however, I clearly stated that if we got above SPY 207 then the downside would likely be limited. My caution to be ready for multiple scenarios was even quoted in MarketWatch Monday morning. That information proved to be […]

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Open Interest for Week Expiring 4/10/15

What an exhausting and yet boring week. Yet, in the end many of the open interest charts once again proved to show the range we would see very well (the quarterly and the weeklies). This is the second week in a row that I pretty much had to just sit on my hands because really there...

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week Starting 4/6/15

Another week of trend-less activity and from the futures action Friday things don’t look so pretty. Of course we have to take into context that futures were open 45 minutes and a lot of the move was very reactionary, but perhaps it’s the start of the washout I keep mentioning I’m looking for before a...

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Market in Need of A Washout

I will be live on Benzinga radio this Wednesday April 8th at 9:00 am. Last week here I wrote both about the potential for a rally at the start of the week with ‘window dressing’ and potential for quarter pinning. We got that rally. Then I gave a specific level to watch for to determine if the […]

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Protected: March

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Open Interest for Expiration 4/02/15

Last week sure had a lot of pinning. The open interest was definitely very helpful in letting us know where stocks were very likely NOT going to go. Some of you even had some good shorts with stocks that got above their ranges. Good job on those! Last week was boring for the most part...

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week 4/30/15

Gross week in the market. I’m very happy that I took a lot of profits on the swings a week earlier and that I didn’t chase anything once I saw 211 on SPY not being able to hold. I definitely didn’t see that sizable drop coming or I would have shorted, but at least I...

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Troubled Markets Ahead

First, I just wanted to thank all of you that tuned into Fox Business during my appearance last Tuesday. I appreciate all the support I have received as the media is still very new to me. Here is a link in case you missed it. Second, I wanted to mention that I will be attending […]

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Open Interest for Expiration 3/27/15

Quad witching over, hooray! We are back to the weeklies which typically have larger changes as the week goes on. The good news is even if the market is choppy next week I see a lot of good opportunities with these momentum stocks. The open interest and the technicals have aligned well for next week and...

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week 3/23/15

Last week was an AMAZING week for us. Not only did our short term trades work very well, but the swings we bought on dips paid off handsomely. That is the thing about this market. If you buy with good timing then you can sell when others are chasing. I would like to continue this great...

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The Path of Least Resistance is Higher

Note: I will be on Fox Business Tuesday at 4:00 pm so please tune in :-). Last week here I wrote that the most likely scenario would be a choppy start to the week followed by a rally in both equites and treasuries. That was right on and those prepared for it were paid handsomely. Keeping […]

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Open Interest for Expiration 3/20/15

Monthly OPEX is upon us so expect less movement in the open interest as the week goes on because many of these puts and calls were bought over a long period of time. That also means that the likelihood of these stocks staying within their ranges or pinning is pretty good. What’s interesting about next...

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Set-ups & Commentary for Week 3/16/15

Last week I had expected us to make a lower low, which we got. I also said that I was looking for a bottom within the next couple of weeks. It’s unclear if we have hit a secure bottom yet, but from the looks of it, if we haven’t there probably isn’t much lower to...

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Have We Bottomed Yet? Next Weeks Game Plan

Last week here I wrote that we were likely to bounce, but also to make a lower low. Both did indeed take place. The question now becomes have we bottomed or is there more downside to come and if so, how far? A look at how oversold the market is: 20-day highs went below 5% which […]

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A Bounce and A Lower Low – Which Comes First?

Last week here I wrote that the most likely scenario based on the evidence was a period of consolidation and/or pullback. Based on the open interest I also discussed the drop that would likely happen if we breached the 210 level on SPY more than once. Both scenarios played out and now we find ourselves threatening […]

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Set-ups & Commentary for Week Starting 3/9/15

I was expecting some consolidation with a possible pull-back last week and we got both. I had mentioned that it would be better to buy dips than breakouts and that patience would likely be rewarded. The set-up for next week is going to be tricky as I do expect a bounce, but I also expect...

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Open Interest for Expiration 3/15/15

I mentioned last weekend that the set-up wasn’t as favorable for taking many trades and that patience was going to be key. As usual the open interest gave me many clues as to what kind of market we would be facing and it didn’t favor chasing breakouts or being too eager to buy dips. Next week...

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