Open Interest for Expiration 4/02/15

Last week sure had a lot of pinning. The open interest was definitely very helpful in letting us know where stocks were very likely NOT going to go. Some of you even had some good shorts with stocks that got above their ranges. Good job on those! Last week was boring for the most part...

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week 4/30/15

Gross week in the market. I’m very happy that I took a lot of profits on the swings a week earlier and that I didn’t chase anything once I saw 211 on SPY not being able to hold. I definitely didn’t see that sizable drop coming or I would have shorted, but at least I...

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Troubled Markets Ahead

First, I just wanted to thank all of you that tuned into Fox Business during my appearance last Tuesday. I appreciate all the support I have received as the media is still very new to me. Here is a link in case you missed it. Second, I wanted to mention that I will be attending […]

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Open Interest for Expiration 3/27/15

Quad witching over, hooray! We are back to the weeklies which typically have larger changes as the week goes on. The good news is even if the market is choppy next week I see a lot of good opportunities with these momentum stocks. The open interest and the technicals have aligned well for next week and...

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week 3/23/15

Last week was an AMAZING week for us. Not only did our short term trades work very well, but the swings we bought on dips paid off handsomely. That is the thing about this market. If you buy with good timing then you can sell when others are chasing. I would like to continue this great...

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The Path of Least Resistance is Higher

Note: I will be on Fox Business Tuesday at 4:00 pm so please tune in :-). Last week here I wrote that the most likely scenario would be a choppy start to the week followed by a rally in both equites and treasuries. That was right on and those prepared for it were paid handsomely. Keeping […]

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Open Interest for Expiration 3/20/15

Monthly OPEX is upon us so expect less movement in the open interest as the week goes on because many of these puts and calls were bought over a long period of time. That also means that the likelihood of these stocks staying within their ranges or pinning is pretty good. What’s interesting about next...

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Set-ups & Commentary for Week 3/16/15

Last week I had expected us to make a lower low, which we got. I also said that I was looking for a bottom within the next couple of weeks. It’s unclear if we have hit a secure bottom yet, but from the looks of it, if we haven’t there probably isn’t much lower to...

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Have We Bottomed Yet? Next Weeks Game Plan

Last week here I wrote that we were likely to bounce, but also to make a lower low. Both did indeed take place. The question now becomes have we bottomed or is there more downside to come and if so, how far? A look at how oversold the market is: 20-day highs went below 5% which […]

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A Bounce and A Lower Low – Which Comes First?

Last week here I wrote that the most likely scenario based on the evidence was a period of consolidation and/or pullback. Based on the open interest I also discussed the drop that would likely happen if we breached the 210 level on SPY more than once. Both scenarios played out and now we find ourselves threatening […]

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Set-ups & Commentary for Week Starting 3/9/15

I was expecting some consolidation with a possible pull-back last week and we got both. I had mentioned that it would be better to buy dips than breakouts and that patience would likely be rewarded. The set-up for next week is going to be tricky as I do expect a bounce, but I also expect...

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Open Interest for Expiration 3/15/15

I mentioned last weekend that the set-up wasn’t as favorable for taking many trades and that patience was going to be key. As usual the open interest gave me many clues as to what kind of market we would be facing and it didn’t favor chasing breakouts or being too eager to buy dips. Next week...

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week Starting 3/2/15

The last few weeks we have been able to ride the trend well and find good opportunities among select stocks. Next week I believe is going to be more challenging because I don’t see good risk/reward for either the upside or downside. My bias is that we have more room to the downside then the upside next week,...

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Open Interest for Expiration 3/28/15

The last few weeks have been great with lots of good opportunities. Unfortunately, I think next week is going to offer less opportunity and might require a bit more patience and tactical trades. The market is near a spot that doesn’t offer much reward in either direction (more about that in the set-ups/commentary post). My...

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A Healthy Market Pause Looming

Last week here I wrote “I took a look at every bullish weekly MACD signal cross since March 2009. In each of the 10 instances, the market continued to make higher highs the following week 100% of the time. Furthermore, in 9 of 10 instances the market also closed higher to end the week. The one instance […]

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Protected: February

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New Year, New Highs, Same Ole Bears

Last week here I wrote that the path of least resistance for the week ahead was higher, which played out nicely. This week, the same is true, yet as a short-term trader I am more cognizant of the psychology starting to shift regarding the current market place as I will explain. Last week, anecdotally speaking, my sense was […]

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week Starting 2/23/15

Last week we again were on the correct side of the market. A couple paper-cuts early in the week were made up for with very profitable trades at end of the week. More and more stocks are looking good, which is bullish; however, often when that happens it’s time to prepare for a mild pull-back/consolidation....

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Open Interest for Expiration 2/27/15

Last week the open interest did a pretty good job of helping us determine ranges as well as  breakouts (such as FB, TSLA) and which ones weren’t ready (such as GOOGL). Next week also has some good ranges and open interests that I think will lead to good trades in these momentum stocks. Lots of them below look...

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Is the Chop Really Over?

After over two months of rangebound choppy action we finally made all time highs on Friday. Those that have fought the recent rally can list a plethora or reasons why the recent high is bearish; however, let there be no mistake that closing at highs is bullish as it has been in every other instance since […]

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Open Interest for Expiration 2/20/15

Monthly expiration is upon us which means the open interest will change less throughout the week and allow us the opportunity to see potential ranges as well as trade them. It also gives us insight into how strong the below momentum stocks are based on how they respond to high call areas that typically align with...

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Set-ups & Commentary for Week Starting 2/17/15

After over two months of rangebound choppy action we finally made all time highs on Friday. This is bullish, especially since it is being met with at or near highs on the other indices. Being bullish though doesn’t necessarily mean it is going to go higher next week as a consolidation period is often followed...

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Open Interest for Expiration 2/13/15

As I said last week I think the open interest has been very useful recently. Sometimes (for instance during trending slower markets) open interest helps, but is more difficult to interpret and play. With the pick up in volatility I am noticing the calls and puts as being much more informative and helpful. Also, as...

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week Starting 2/9/15

We had a good week playing the volatility last week and as of now it appears we had a false breakdown (Monday morning) and are now breaking to the upside. With the recent volatility and still no sold evidence that we will in fact trend higher I will again lay out several scenarios we can...

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Stay On Your Toes Or Be Stepped On

Last week here I wrote that I wouldn’t be surprised if we went below SPY 200 and then went on to test the other side of the recent range at 204. Both did in fact take place before the market then went on to break the wedge that many market participants have had their eyes on. The […]

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