Going Against the Grain

In case you missed it, I had the privilege of being a guest to Anthony Crudele’s futures radio show. Tune in here. Last week here I went through reasons why I did not think the lows were in, but highlighted that the market will often rally into and after the FOMC meeting. My thoughts were […]

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest and Set-ups for 9/26/16

I really can’t remember the last time I had such a variety of short and long trades and many working at the same time. It’s more proof that the market is not being carried by the majority of stocks and I still do believe the bottom is not in. Next week is quarter end and...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

A Tale of Two Indices – One with an Obvious Divergence

Last week here I wrote that the bottom was unlikely in and that for the time being bounces should be sold. The market did go lower, but I wouldn’t necessarily say it bottomed. Regarding bounces being sold, that worked, but buying dips would have worked just as well. It was a choppy week and on […]

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest and Set-ups for 9/19/16

It seems that volatility is finally back. Quad witching, which tends to bring some volatility with it, is over, but there is still the Fed meeting on Wednesday. At this point and on a very short term basis (a few days) I am leaning bullish. However, looking out further, I think this market has not...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Quad Witching Time

Last week here (and for several weeks) I discussed some breadth divergences that are unfortunately not a timing tool, but a caution sign. More importantly I discussed the risks of so many expirations and analysed both the Wednesday and Friday SPY expiration. Wednesday (the first ever SPY Wednesday expiration) did not disappoint and pinned almost perfectly. Friday on […]

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest & Set-ups for Week 9/12/16

Finally some movement. Or actually, some HUGE movement very similar to what I was talking about all week over and over again. At the start of the week I mentioned that it was the weak before quad witching and that historically, it brings weakness around it either before or after. That coupled with my reluctance to get too long...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest and Set-ups for Week 9/6/16

Another week goes by and another week where SPX closed in range. Next week is a four day week and likely the start to more trading volume and hopefully, but not necessarily, some range expansion. For the most part its very hard to make the case for bulls or bears on a short time horizon. Longer...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

The New 2x Expirations for SPY + Breadth

Last week I was taking in the last bit of summer so let’s get right into next week. Breadth: The two potential themes I am seeing are 1) some signs that could be considered the market being short term oversold and 2) some caution signs of underneath deterioration. A quick recovery of breadth and expansion likely […]

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest & Set-ups for 8/30/16

Another relatively benign week until Friday which saw more intra-day movement than we have seen for a while. SPX still managed to close within the range it has remained in since the jobs number, but just by one tick. In the end though it is still in its range for now. With that said the...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Volatility or Rotation & Grind

Last week here I had little to say except that SPY would very likely not close over 220 and that as long as SPY remained above 217, it would be difficult to make a bearish case. The low last week was 217.02, the high 219.50. Perfect range for any short term bulls and bears to go crazy […]

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest and Set-ups for 8/22/16

What a dreadfully slow OPEX week. Now that it’s over I think things will get better (meaning more movement), but let’s not forget that there are two weeks left of summer. This is a big travel time and thus not the time to be getting into big positions. For the next two weeks I think...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

It’s OPEX Time!

Last week here I summed things up with: In sum: The market strength on Friday is likely to lead to new highs being made; however be aware at the limitations the current breakout has in the near term. Should SPX fall before making a higher high next week, technical support levels will likely be quickly […]

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest and Set-ups for 8/15/16

Given how unbelievably slow the market was, we did pretty good. Nothing huge, but we have to trade the market we are given. Importantly we stayed out of trouble by not chasing some of the momo’s that had high call strikes. Next week is monthly OPEX and so the open interest will likely not change...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

A One Way Road to What Price?

Last week here I said that there was likely a new high coming, but that gains would likely be limited to 218 SPY. I also said that if SPY dips below 215, it was likely be a buy. There was a new high, there was a pullback below 215 that turned out to be a […]

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest and Set-ups for Week 8/8/16

The last week was very similar to the one before where overall the market was up and it looked like there was easy money, but we know that minus Monday and Friday it was all chop. BIIB was HUGE and lucky. Those don’t come around that often, but don’t worry I am always on the...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

A Rumbling Below the Surface

Last week in a post titled Reasonable Expectations I wrote: In sum, I wish I had something more impressive to say, but I’m not going to spend time trying to find something that makes me sound smart. The upside seems limited, but trying to time a short without a signal isn’t attractive. Thus for short term traders, […]

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest & Set-ups for 8/1/16

It’s been a very long consolidation and the movement on the indexes has been slow and choppy, but we have had some good gems so no complaints. The market finally made a new high after working off overbought conditions through time. Does that give us the all clear? I’m going to say no and likely any...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Reasonable Expectations

Last week here I wrote that the longer term trend was higher, but that there would likely be a pause, chop, and a grinding lower. I was right about all of it except that latter part as there really wasn’t much grinding lower. In fact BEFD (Buy Every F’N Dip) has not let up at […]

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest and Set-ups for Week 7/25/16

Last week the theme was patience and although I wasn’t expecting new highs,  that patience is what helped us be profitable. There was a lot of chop during the week and if we had piled into weekly long options those options would have been eaten by premium. Think about this, the high two Friday’s ago was...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Time to Reset

The last two weeks I made it pretty clear to Buy Every F’n Dip (BEFD). Unfortunately for those not well positioned there wasn’t much of a dip to take advantage of. Here is last weeks post. The easy part (for the time being) is likely over. Looking out several weeks though, the market looks set […]

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest and Set-ups for 7/18/16

Awesome week. We rode the wave and got out many of our positions just in time. As I had explained, when things are working too well it’s time to tighten up while things are good, even if things still look very bullish. At this point I am still bullish looking out a few weeks; however,...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest & Set-ups for 7/11/16 – Sample

This was originally published form subscribers on 7/9/16 The premise for last week was that we had to be patient and pick our spots carefully and not expect huge gains even though I was bullish. Most of the week was choppy and as I had said hard to make money with options. Friday was obviously […]

Read More →

Read More →

Keep on the B-E-F-D Train

Last week here I made it pretty clear that my premise was to buy every dip. I actually didn’t think the market would pullback as much as it did, but for those that were buying it was a gift. Next week is monthly OPEX and at the moment SPX has nothing to contend with except […]

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest & Set-ups for 7/11/16

The premise for last week was that we had to be patient and pick our spots carefully and not expect huge gains even though I was bullish. Most of the week was choppy and as I had said hard to make money with options. Friday was obviously a different story and even surpassed the 212...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Remember B-E-F-D? Brexit was the Bust Before the Thrust

Last week here I discussed that the market had lower to go, but was in a good position to begin looking for signs of a swing long. First, I admittedly had no idea that swing would come Monday. I highlighted that the market was short term oversold and likely had a bounce coming, but a swing […]

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest & Set-ups for Week 7/5/16

What an amazing buying opportunity Monday was. Unbelievable move. And how crazy was that quarterly pinning?!? Based on how the rest of the week went, I think it’s more probable that we see new highs before we see Monday’s low breached. Having said that, the market has been in a range for about 2 years...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

How Monday’s Drop & Open Interest Set-up a Long Trade

Over the weekend I posted that there was a good probability of the market going lower before finding a bottom. I’m still not sure if we hit a cycle bottom, but based on the quarterly index open interest and 20-day lows, the risk/reward for a bounce was too good to pass up. As a reminder here […]

Read More →

Read More →

More Downside to Come

I’m back. Thanks for all the congratulatory comments while I was away. This will be a short to the point. For much more relevant information take the premium plunge. If you recall a month or two ago I repeatedly wrote in my posts that the market never reached an oversold reading that is typical of […]

Read More →

Read More →

Set-ups/Open Interest for Week 6/27/16

I’m back. Thank you all for the support and congratulatory comments. Not such a nice welcome back from the market, but at least the big FOMC and Brexit is now done (well the vote not the aftermath). Some of you will recall that a couple months ago I continently said that it is rare for...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest for 6/24/16

Hi everyone! Thank you all for the support and comments! The wedding turned out to be AMAZING. It was supposed to be on the beach, but that day there was a storm that came through and it had to be moved indoors, but it was with glass windows/doors and the ocean was still right behind...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest for Expiration 6/17/16

Awesome week. The end wasn’t as great, but if you think about all the trades we took it proves two points. 1) Take some off the table when profits are there and 2) leave some on so that you can continue to profit if the stock isn’t done. Easier said than done sometimes, but as...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Set-ups & Game Plan for 6/13/16

Recall that last week I described the scenario we saw for months when SPX hung around 2050 before finally breaking into a new range and mentioned that we could easily see something very similar around 2100. So far that seems to be the case and with two big events over the next two weeks (FOMC & Brexit)...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

June Swoon or to the Moon

Last week here I took a spin on BTFD and termed BEFD (buy every f’n dip). Is there a difference? Probably not, but I was trying to emphasize that if the market dips, but stays above 2084, it will probably rip back up. That happened 4 our of 4 times last week. At this point […]

Read More →

Read More →

Set-ups & Game Plan for Week 6/6/10

Once again we find ourselves at that 2100 level. Remember how long we stayed at the 2050 level. We could be headed into a similar period of chop around 2100 for a couple weeks until the June FOMC and Brexit is over; however, if that doesn’t end up happening then I think for now we...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest for Expiration 6/10/16

My new framed term BEFD worked extremely well last week. We had some really nice plays despite Friday being a dud day. I’m a bit torn about the next couple of weeks in that it’s possible the rally has reached exhaustion and is ready to pullback to shake out some bulls. On the other hand...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

B-E-F-D Until Bulls Fumble

Buy-Every-F*****g-Dip Last week here I proposed that the chop would likely continue and that any gains that came before better oversold readings would likely not hold. The caveat was if we closed and had follow through over 2084. As you know the premise was wrong and the exception instead came into fruition – which hopefully […]

Read More →

Read More →

Set-ups and Game Plan for Week

The chop zone is finally over. Of course it happens after OPEX, which we had thought was a possibility anyway. So does the market now finally get over 2100 and then possibly make all time highs? I would say yes that is likely, but I’m sure there will be some chop and backtesting along the...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest for Expiration 6/03/16

Last week was great. I didn’t think SPX would make it over 2084, but being flexible shows that it didn’t really matter what I thought. We are about to enter the summer months so we need to keep in mind that things will be slower (which is hard to believe) on many days. That also means...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Read More →

Set-ups & Game Plan for Week 5/23/16

Last week was tiring and challenging, but we totally nailed it. Now that OPEX is over maybe we can get some real price discovery – meaning break the chop zone the market cannot seem to get out of. As a side note, keep in mind that as next week is coming to an end things will...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest for Expiration 5/27/16

Last week played out exactly how we anticipated. SPY vacillated through 205, but always found it’s way back. In no way was it easy to play, but we navigated it amazingly well. The chop range is now a bit wider with SPX 2025 being the low end and 2084 being the high end. Now that OPEX...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

It’s That Time Again: Welcome to OPEX Week

Last week here I discussed that the market likely has not seen the lows of this cycle and any news gains would likely be given back. I am still in that camp. I also said that a close above 2083 would make things more bullish. What I should have said is a close with follow […]

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest for Expiration 5/20/16

The chop continues. It definitely hasn’t been easy to navigate, but we have luckily found several spots of opportunity. Less is more until things become more resolved. Next week is monthly OPEX so the open interest tends to change less throughout the week since these are more popular options than weeklies. The close on Friday...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Set-ups and Game Plan for Week 5/16/16

Currently SPX is trading in the range of 2039 to 2084. For now it has had a failed breakout over 2083 and unless it can close above 2084 (and follow through) then we assume SPX will either stay in the range of 2039 to 2084 or move below 2039 and create a new range. I...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Did Friday’s Reversal Give the All Clear?

Apologies ahead of time, but this post will be brief due to my best friends birthday and Mothers Day. Last week here I said that if Friday (4/29) was a reversal and the market traded higher, it would likely be given back and that below 2052 opened the door to more selling. I also highlighted support […]

Read More →

Read More →

Set-ups and Game Plan for Week 5/9/16

A very choppy week that ended above the key support of 2052. At this point, taken together with the open interest, the bulls have the short term edge, but the intermediate is still neutral to slightly bearish. One of the support levels I outlined in last weeks post was 2039 and it held insanely well on...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest for Expiration 5/13/16

Well I said I expected a choppy week. The entire week was a very very slow grind lower until magically the 205 SPY calls were saved. There is no way to know if Friday will get follow through or not. The fact that the momentum stocks were so strong definitely makes it seem plausible, yet...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Set-ups and Game Plan for Week 5/2/16 – Open

This was one of two premium posts  for members posted before week starting 5/2/16 As I said last week, it’s time to begin thinking about selling the rip and not just buying. Even though I had that written and had it in mind, it was much harder to do last week given all the disconnects […]

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest for Expiration 5/6/16 – open

This was one of two premium posts  for members posted before week starting 5/2/16 Volatility is back – at least for the time being. We knew at the start of the week that there was SPY 210 and 215 high calls. The 210’s never closed and last week SPY got close but was never able to […]

Read More →

Read More →

Mayday! Mayday! Or Just May?

Last week here, I discussed the bulls having the edge, but that any edge they had would likely be limited and possibly given back at the end of the week (I mentioned to look for clues in the SPY open interest). I also mentioned possible rotation into the QQQ’s. I was right about the former […]

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest for Expiration 5/6/16

Volatility is back – at least for the time being. We knew at the start of the week that there was SPY 210 and 215 high calls. The 210’s never closed and last week SPY got close but was never able to even make it above 210. Even though we knew that was a possibliity, last...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Set-ups and Game Plan for Week 5/2/16

As I said last week, it’s time to begin thinking about selling the rip and not just buying. Even though I had that written and had it in mind, it was much harder to do last week given all the disconnects (well isn’t it always harder then it would seem?). Now that we are entering...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest for Expiration 4/29/16 – Open

This was one of two premium posts  for members posted before week starting 4/25/16 It was a very disconnected week which made picking the right trades challenging. All three days, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday were fake-outs if you will. Luckily we remained level headed and watched the internals. Even though that is what made things confusing, […]

Read More →

Read More →

Set-ups & Game Plan for Week 4/25/16 – Open

This was one of two premium posts  for members posted before week starting 4/25/16 Once again as extreme as it may seem the lack of selling pressure continues to support the bull thesis and thus buying the dip is more attractive then shorting. With that being said, last week at least brought in some selling […]

Read More →

Read More →

Can QQQ’s Get Some Love? And What’s with the 215 SPY Calls?

Last week here I made the case for higher prices, but that they would likely either be slow or hampered. Indeed prices rose, but then were hampered. The week was no doubt challenging as there were may disconnects that began Wednesday and went on through the rest of the week. Over TWTR and Stocktwits on Wednesday […]

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest for Expiration 4/29/16

It was a very disconnected week which made picking the right trades challenging. All three days, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday were fake-outs if you will. Luckily we remained level headed and watched the internals. Even though that is what made things confusing, it saved us from trying to get short. As I mentioned over and over...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Set-ups & Game Plan for Week 4/25/16

Once again as extreme as it may seem the lack of selling pressure continues to support the bull thesis and thus buying the dip is more attractive then shorting. With that being said, last week at least brought in some selling in individual sectors and momentum stocks that suggest cracks are beginning to show up....

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest for Expiration 4/22/16 – Open

This was one of two premium posts  for members posted before week starting 4/18/16 Two weeks in a row the market gave us good opportunity in the beginning of the week, which we took advantage of, and then just sucked premium the rest of it. There is no denying that there is a lack of […]

Read More →

Read More →

Set-ups and Game Plan for Week 4/18/16 – Open

This was one of two premium posts  for members posted before week starting 4/18/16 I have two examples of why the market is strong and why for now buying the dip needs to be more prevalent on our minds than shorting. Last week many of the momo stocks and some ETF’s that I casually watch […]

Read More →

Read More →

Is the high SPY 210 Call Strike Meaningful?

In last weeks post here, the main take away was that there would likely be a break of either SPX 2040 or 2070, but that neither would likely lead to a large move. I also mentioned some breadth divergences that were beginning to creep in, but were not yet at a point that shorting was encouraged. As […]

Read More →

Read More →

Set-ups and Game Plan for Week 4/18/16

I have two examples of why the market is strong and why for now buying the dip needs to be more prevalent on our minds than shorting. Last week many of the momo stocks and some ETF’s that I casually watch got to their high strike calls. Meaning the price slammed right into or went...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest for Expiration 4/22/16

Two weeks in a row the market gave us good opportunity in the beginning of the week, which we took advantage of, and then just sucked premium the rest of it. There is no denying that there is a lack of any significant selling pressure right now (more on that in the set-up post) and...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Set-ups and Game Plan for 4/11/16 – open

This was one of two premium posts  for members posted before week starting 4/11/16 The market has basically been in a range of 2040 to 2070 for two weeks. You could say it’s consolidating gains and creating a bull flag, but for now (and in the short term) I am leaning more bearish than bullish. […]

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest for Expiration 4/15/16 – open

This was one of two premium posts  for members posted before week starting 4/11/16 Well the weak wasn’t as calm as I expected even though it basically closed in the same place as it did on Tuesday. I can’t argue that there was lots of movement to be played though. Next week is monthly OPEX […]

Read More →

Read More →

Choppy Waters Ahead

From Convergex: Looking at every time average sector correlations have dropped below 70% – 6 times in total since the beginning of 2010 – the average one month forward return is 0.6%.  While that is lower than the 0.9% averaged compounded monthly return since the start of the period, the volatility of returns ranges from a […]

Read More →

Read More →

Set-ups and Game Plan for 4/11/16

The market has basically been in a range of 2040 to 2070 for two weeks. You could say it’s consolidating gains and creating a bull flag, but for now (and in the short term) I am leaning more bearish than bullish. The low of last week was 2033 so that is basically the short term...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest for Expiration 4/15/16

Well the weak wasn’t as calm as I expected even though it basically closed in the same place as it did on Tuesday. I can’t argue that there was lots of movement to be played though. Next week is monthly OPEX and usually the open interest doesn’t shift as much as it does for weeklies,...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest for Expiration 4/8/16 – Open

This was one of two premium posts  for members posted before week starting 4/4/16 Awesome week! For now the bulls are still in charge, but at this point there is likely to be limited upside before either a pullback or consolidation. Earnings are just around the corner and until they get underway, dips will very […]

Read More →

Read More →

Set-ups and Game Plan for Week 4/4/16 – open

This was one of two premium posts  for members posted before week starting 4/4/16 Last week SPX remained above 2022, the level I said kept the ball in the bull court. Once price got over 2055 we knew that the bulls took price from neutral/bullish to bullish. There is still room higher before larger resistance […]

Read More →

Read More →

A Calm Week Ahead

Last week here I laid out the case for the bulls, again (seems crazy to me too). I also talked about the possibility of a performance chase into the quarters end. In other words, I made it pretty clear that as long as SPX remained above 2022 to be a buyer. The bulls indeed still […]

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest for Expiration 4/8/16

Awesome week! For now the bulls are still in charge, but at this point there is likely to be limited upside before either a pullback or consolidation. Earnings are just around the corner and until they get underway, dips will very likely be buyable. Let’s get straight into the open interest. General note for the...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Set-ups and Game Plan for Week 4/4/16

Last week SPX remained above 2022, the level I said kept the ball in the bull court. Once price got over 2055 we knew that the bulls took price from neutral/bullish to bullish. There is still room higher before larger resistance steps in, but any further highs next week will likely be muted. The first...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Set-ups and Game Plan for 3/28/16 – open

This was one of two premium posts  for members posted before week starting 3/28/16. One of the hardest things to do as an options trader is not chase breakups that technically look great. Often traders concentrate just on making money and forget that not losing money is more important to survival; and as we know, […]

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest for Expiration 4/1/16 – open

This was one of two premium posts  for members posted before week starting 3/28/16. Good week given the opportunities that we were actually given. One important take away is how patience was rewarded. The start to the week I kept preaching not to chase. Options are not friendly to a still market and especially one […]

Read More →

Read More →

Performance Chase?

Last week here, I outlined reasons why there was likely more downside than upside to be had last week. In the end, there wasn’t as much downside as I had anticipated, but anyone that chased what looked like a breakout early in the week likely ended the week in disappointment. From last week: “In sum, based on the […]

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest for Expiration 4/1/16

Good week given the opportunities that we were actually given. One important take away is how patience was rewarded. The start to the week I kept preaching not to chase. Options are not friendly to a still market and especially one that suddenly pulls back. Although we only came away with small profits, I’m pretty...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Set-ups and Game Plan for 3/28/16

One of the hardest things to do as an options trader is not chase breakups that technically look great. Often traders concentrate just on making money and forget that not losing money is more important to survival; and as we know, options have no mercy. In some regard, even though last week was only minimally profitable,...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Set-ups and Game Plan for Week 3/21/16 (open)

This was one of two premium posts  for members posted before week starting 3/21/16. Last week I had a very clear bias as to where the market was likely headed. Next week isn’t as clear cut. I think there is still more upside in this current cycle as breadth has kept up very well with […]

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest for 3/24/16 (open)

This was one of two premium posts for members prior to week starting 3/21/16. Last week the open interest saved us from getting long some of the momo’s that looked like they were going to break out. Sometimes the open interest is just a way to assess risk to reward. With SPY, it went ex-dividend […]

Read More →

Read More →

Time for Some Bear Love

Last week here I clearly laid out a bullish scenario backed by solid reasoning. I summed up my thoughts with this: In sum, current breadth and the weekly MACD cross suggest further upside next week. Given the market is overbought it may pause or slightly pull-back, but the evidence at hand supports buying a dip or consolidation. With […]

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest for 3/24/16

Last week the open interest saved us from getting long some of the momo’s that looked like they were going to break out. Sometimes the open interest is just a way to assess risk to reward. With SPY, it went ex-dividend and was left with the high calls at 205 and 206. SPY closed at...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Set-ups and Game Plan for Week 3/21/16

Last week I had a very clear bias as to where the market was likely headed. Next week isn’t as clear cut. I think there is still more upside in this current cycle as breadth has kept up very well with price. However, I do believe that there is a shakeout coming before higher prices...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

The Bulls Set for a Further Run Next Week?

Last week here I made the case for the bulls and summed up my post with this “In sum, the expansion in breadth with price supports further upside over the next few weeks and suggests taking on a buy the dip mentality. However, the current overbought levels and technical resistance may lead to a pullback or […]

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest for Expiration 3/18/16

Fairly volatile week. In the end, the bulls had the edge and the dips were bought, as I mentioned was the bias going into the week. We were very patient and very disciplined – thus, rewarded. Next week is monthly OPEX so the majority of the open interest will not change and will have more...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Set-ups and Game Plan for Week 3/14/16

Last week once again proves that patience is really key to profits. Thanks by the way for those that directly contacted me to share how well you did last week. I am very pleased. Next week is a VERY heavy week. There is the BOJ, FOMC and it’s OPEX. Furthermore, although this seems silly, college...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Set-ups and Game plan for 3/14/16 (open)

This was one of two premium posts last weekend for members. Last week once again proves that patience is really key to profits. Thanks by the way for those that directly contacted me to share how well you did last week. I am very pleased. Next week is a VERY heavy week. There is the […]

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest for Expiration 3/18/16 (open)

This was one of two premium posts last weekend for members. Fairly volatile week. In the end, the bulls had the edge and the dips were bought, as I mentioned was the bias going into the week. We were very patient and very disciplined – thus, rewarded. Next week is monthly OPEX so the majority […]

Read More →

Read More →

What are Market Internals Hinting at?

Last week here I showed why bulls were in charge and described that there could be a pullback in the short term (that should be bought), but that if price got over SPY 197 then shorting should be avoided and price would likely see 200 very quickly. The exception ended up the rule last week. […]

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest for Expiration 3/11/16

Last week I posted three scenario’s and of course the least preferable one took place, which meant we didn’t have much opportunity to buy the dip. In the end it didn’t matter and we were able to find some gems that provided nice returns. Lately I have really been trying to stress patience and practice it myself....

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Set-ups and Game Plan for 3/7/16

As of now the bulls have the edge. The market is in a tough spot because going long at these levels doesn’t offer great risk to reward and yet shorting too early (especially with options) leads to pain. Going out essentially flat with a couple longer term swings feels the most comfortable and gives us...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Protected: February

There is no excerpt because this is a protected post....

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Perhaps a Stall, but Edge Lies with the Bulls

Last week here I discussed that bulls had the edge, but that neither bulls or bears should get too enthusiastic about breakouts/breakdowns. That was the case up until Thursday, where SPY was set to break the 194 level for a third time. At that point shorting the rip was no longer appealing and instead going with […]

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest for Expiration 3/4/16

Overall I believe that March has more upside to it; however the timing is where it gets tricky. Next week the more favorable scenario is for price to either consolidate below 1950 or even better pullback to the 1900 level or even slightly below. Should price hold above 1960 then their exists a high probability that...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Set-ups and Game Plan for 2/29/16

Closing the week pretty much flat really seemed like the best way to go. Anything other than that just seemed like guessing to me. SPX got to a 20-day high last week and currently the bulls do have the edge despite the Friday close. There are tons of support levels below, namely 1942 (Friday’s close), 1930...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Whether a Bull or a Bear, Curb that Enthusiasm Next Week

Last week here I showed how split traders were as to what was next (not surprising), but offered levels to watch to help dictate your week. I said “A gap open over 1865 that is not filled would increase the odds of a continued rally.” That coupled with the SPY open interest having heavy 190 puts […]

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest for Expiration 2/26/16

That gap up Monday morning combined with the SPY open interest was enough to let us know the market was probably not going back down and would close over 190 by Friday. It’s still a very split market with not all stocks rallying when the market does, which makes sense given the market is still in...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Set-ups and Game Plan for 2/22/16

Next week has a neutral bias to it that includes both a little lower and higher. We know where the market is going to find heavy resistance because of the open interest, but we don’t know how it will play out. There are some clues that I will point out below, but for the most...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

No One Has a Clue, but for Next Week Know This…

Last week here I wrote “For next week, if SPX stays below 1872, then assume all bounces should be sold and price is likely headed to 1850, and then near or below 1812.” Furthermore, I posted the open interest for SPY which suggested a close over 185 by Friday. Somehow, both things worked out even though […]

Read More →

Read More →

Set-ups & Game Plan for 2/16/16

As I said in the open interest post, there is no consensus on how the market may open Tuesday. A gap down, would certainly be bearish, whereas a gap up isn’t necessarily bullish unless it can hold and follow through. Recall just a couple weeks ago Friday closed on the highs and the then Monday’s...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest for Expiration 2/19/16

I took a poll on Twitter asking do we open higher or lower on Tuesday. The results were exactly split 50/50. What does this tell us? No one has a clue. What’s interesting is last week, despite the insane moves, lots of things ended up pinning. I’ve noticed that pinning tends to work when the...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Top