Open Interest for Expiration 5/29/15

What an uneventful week except for having some nice profits on Thursday. Last expiration week for May coming up. SPY: I wish this told us more, but really the only thing it tells us is that if SPY can finally breakout it likely gets stopped in it’s track at 215. Other than that we need...

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week 5/26/15

Last weekend I had a ‘slightly’ bullish bias and it turns out we went ‘slightly’ higher, albeit most of  the gains took place early in the week. Overall for next week there really isn’t much more for me to say than what I have been saying on twitter all last week. We are consolidating at the highs,...

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Breakout or Fake-out, Again?

Last week here, I candidly admitted that I had no real bias coming into the week. That changed Tuesday morning at around 10:30, right about the time the market rallied higher never to look back. I even sent out a tweet right before the rally began to highlight what I was seeing.    Overbought/Oversold: I […]

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Open Interest for Expiration 5/22/15

Monthly opex over and we are back to weeklies. Was an interesting week with finally some movement after holding 210 for a few days. The big question of course is does the breakout hold. Because we are back to weeklies there will be more open interest changes during the week then there was last week....

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week 5/18/15

I’m glad I came into the week without a bias because I never would have been able to predict how the week played out. It also allowed me to be flexible and cover my SPY puts at pretty much the perfect time. Although we are at all time highs, it’s very hard to be super...

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Open Interest for Expiration 5/15/15

Another week where we went nowhere and yet had a decent down move as I had suspected based on the SPY open interest. Next week is Monthly OPEX and as you know those have much more staying power and rarely change throughout the week. Here we go: SPY: Currently best pin is at 210 and...

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Set-ups & Market Commentary for Week 5/11/15

First, I want to thank you all for your patience while I was less active due to visiting my family in LA. As we now know in hindsight I really didn’t miss much and it probably kept me out of trouble. The market is still in a range and until then I think scraping money out...

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The Big Move Is…..

Last week I was out of town and posted the SPY open interest on my twitter stating that it looked similar to the week prior and worth a read (which is here). The main take away was that any rally would likely be sold and a swift sell-off was a good probability. That indeed happened as Monday […]

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Set-ups & Commentary for Week 5/4/15

Last week we didn’t get caught chasing the market knowing that the odds did not favor a breakout, but did favor a swift sell-off which is what ended up happening. The market is still not trending frustrating everyone. As I noted in the open interest, next week is offering a similar set-up although rare to...

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Open Interest for Expiration 5/8/15

Continues to be a directionless market making the open interest even more important for clues. SPY of course never got anywhere near 215 just as I had premised last weekend and we did indeed get a pretty gross sell-off (although wish I had been in IWM puts instead of SPY!) I said on Friday SPY...

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Protected: APRIL

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Will Bulls Go For Gold or Pass the Baton to Bears?

Last week here I gave a few scenarios for next week with levels on SPY to guide you. Specifically, I said that if we gap higher or get above 208 then as long as that held, the bias was bullish. I also stated that, “Once again, the market is in a similar predicament in which […]

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week Starting 4/27/15

I had said last week that the way we closed was very similar to a couple weeks ago when we ended up going higher. We knew where support was and what to look for Monday morning to guide us. We gapped over all the puts and then monitored them all week giving us the clue that...

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Open Interest for Expiration 5/1/15

Once again we saw how the open interest was a great guide for SPY and the momo’s.  Next week again is weekly expiration again, which means that the open interest is more susceptible to changes during the week. It’s also the last week for the major earnings releases. We had a couple great weekly trades and...

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Stuck, Trend-less, Choppy Markets

Pick an adjective, there are a plethora to choose from in the English language, but they all describe the market environment we are trading in. The bull isn’t winning, the bear isn’t winning, although premium sellers are likely winning. Last week here, I wrote that the likely scenario would be a choppy to lower start to […]

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Open Interest for Expiration 4/24/15

The open interest range on SPY held the entire week from Monday to Friday. On top of that, all those stocks that I said had interesting open interests with one strike carrying both the calls and the puts – well, they indeed ended up pinning with most of the damage done Friday. We are back...

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week 4/20/15

Last week I said the market would likely be choppy do down at the start and that it was a buyable dip if support held. That turned out to be correct. Once we got above 210 I said that level would become support. I didn’t anticipate that we would get all the way back down...

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week 4/13/15

Last week the SPY open interest told us everything we needed to know right from the start of the week. We got over the 207 level very quickly which was a tell that bulls had control unless that got breached. Once I was able to adapt to the bullish environment then my mind shifted and...

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Open Interest for Expiration 4/17/15

Tons of pinning last week. The open interest was super helpful to gauge our range and also got us into that huge LNKD winner. The open interest is also why I went out a bit further on TWTR and AAPL because the pinning was just too strong. Next week is the big monthly OPEX plus earnings...

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Will This Breakout Be For Real?

If you missed my Benzinga radio interview, check it out here. Last week here my bias was more bearish; however, I clearly stated that if we got above SPY 207 then the downside would likely be limited. My caution to be ready for multiple scenarios was even quoted in MarketWatch Monday morning. That information proved to be […]

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Open Interest for Week Expiring 4/10/15

What an exhausting and yet boring week. Yet, in the end many of the open interest charts once again proved to show the range we would see very well (the quarterly and the weeklies). This is the second week in a row that I pretty much had to just sit on my hands because really there...

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week Starting 4/6/15

Another week of trend-less activity and from the futures action Friday things don’t look so pretty. Of course we have to take into context that futures were open 45 minutes and a lot of the move was very reactionary, but perhaps it’s the start of the washout I keep mentioning I’m looking for before a...

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Market in Need of A Washout

I will be live on Benzinga radio this Wednesday April 8th at 9:00 am. Last week here I wrote both about the potential for a rally at the start of the week with ‘window dressing’ and potential for quarter pinning. We got that rally. Then I gave a specific level to watch for to determine if the […]

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Protected: March

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Open Interest for Expiration 4/02/15

Last week sure had a lot of pinning. The open interest was definitely very helpful in letting us know where stocks were very likely NOT going to go. Some of you even had some good shorts with stocks that got above their ranges. Good job on those! Last week was boring for the most part...

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