Buy the dip or Sell the Rip?

Last week here I discussed a more bullish bias with the caveat that there was one big strike at on the SPY open interest at 205 and price could get there or undercut it by a bit. I also said that it would be a great place to buy the dip. I was wrong and […]

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Set-ups and Game Plan for 8/24/15

Hands down bears won last week. The move lower is not over. Whether we flush first and then move higher or we bounce and then move lower is not something anyone can predict; however, we can and will play this volatility. There is no doubt the market is oversold, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the market...

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Open Interest for Expiration 8/28/15

Whoa! Didn’t see that coming. Open interest got smacked by the selling. The last time that happened on a monthly OPEX was October 2014 (which provided information that I carried forward into last week). On Thursday, after the failure of price to get back above 205 a second time, I stopped trying to catch the bounce....

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OPEX and One Strike Domination

Last week here I wrote: “I am still not convinced the market has bottomed, but overall my main bias for next week leans bullish” and gave a guide on SPY and what to expect (how to play it). Below is what I wrote: “Here is a guide for SPY next week: SPY below 208 and not able to […]

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Open Interest for Expiration 8/21/15

AMAZING WEEK!!!!! We nailed pretty much every market turn to the upside and downside AND had huge winners in individual stocks. Next week is monthly OPEX so most of the open interest will not change during the week. SPY: Overall this is a bullish open interest graph. Having said that there is not much put...

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Set-ups and Game Plan for 8/17/15

Superb week, which is wonderful and should be acknowledged, but now back to work so we can continue the streak. Monthly OPEX in general tends to be bullish, but that is not something I would base my analysis on. However, it’s helpful to know because it coincides with a bullish open interest. As I said in the...

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What Goes Up Must Come Down – So Opposite True Right?

Last week here I wrote “Taking the open interest at face value first suggests that price will continue to gravitate to the 210/211 level and second, suggests a more neutral to bearish week is upon us.” I also outlined several thorough scenarios of what to expect based on where price goes and if you go […]

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Set-ups and Trading Plan for Week 8/10/15

Last week the game plan was right on point, but as you saw it was extremely difficult to trade and required lots of patience. This trading environment is so tricky and it’s teaching me/us the importance of sticking to the plan because they really do work. As I mentioned last week, I don’t think the bottom...

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Open Interest for Expiration 8/14/15

What a draining week. The open interest definitely nailed the outcome, but man did they make it so hard to hold those puts after that gap up Wednesday. It really does just reaffirm that it’s best to stick to the plan because more times than not it works and over time that averages to mostly...

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Open Interest For Expiration for 8/7/15

Last week the open interest pointed to a bullish week with a potential target for SPY 210 and then 211. That worked, but it definitely wasn’t easy. Earnings are winding down now so the open interest for the momentum stocks will become more relevant again. Also, based on the decent high strikes of puts or...

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Set-ups and Commentary for 8/03/15

It was correct to be bullish biased last week with a buy the dip mentality. It didn’t lead to a whole lot gains with such small movements and being too early, but so be it. In the open interest post I highlight that next week appears to have a neutral to bearish bias. As you...

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Are Bulls for Real or Will a Bear Appear?

Last week here I wrote that I am  “still not convinced that the lows for the year were in and after last week am more convinced that they are not. Having said that, I do think the market will bounce first before moving lower.” That worked out well and my view has not changed. Having already bounced […]

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Protected: July

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Set-ups & Weekly Commentary for 7/27/15

Going into last week I stated that there was limited upside due to the open interest and that turned out to be correct. I did not however think we would get all the way down to 207.5, but I did say that a break of 209 and that was the next likely target. Where I...

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Open Interest for Expiration 7/31/15

Overall fantastic week even though it ended poorly. ‘You win some, you lose some’ works as long as we win more than we lose which we did :-). Next time I have huge gains like I have in the last two weeks I just got take a couple days off! Anyway, let’s get to next...

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Bear Bear Go Away, Come Again Another Day?

Last week here I stated that the SPY open interest suggested “that the market will be rangebound next week, with very little room to move higher, but room to give back some of last weeks gains.” I also thought that shallow dips would be bought, but laid out a game plan in case that failed to […]

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Surprise – The V is Back, but is it a Trap?

Last week here I wrote that my bias was up and there was a good chance SPY would find its way to the 210 level. I had not anticipated that it would continue higher when I originally wrote the post, but did update my views on twitter mid week. First, I cautioned any short attempts by […]

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Setups and Commentary for 7/20/15

What an insanely busy and good week. Good feeling to be on the right side of the trade. Next week we still have big earnings, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the market will have some big moves. In fact, typically after a move similar to what we just got there is either some consolidation or...

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Open Interest for Expiration 7/24/25

EPIC EPIC EPIC week! I had no idea we were going to put in a bounce like that last week, but good thing is I didn’t need to know to benefit. I had the direction right and that made all the difference. Let’s get right into next week. SPY: The open interest suggests that next week...

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Bounce or Bottom? Next Week’s Game Plan

Last week here I discussed my bias being up and that if we were to get a dip below 205 it was a gift and to buy it. That turned out to be very sound advice even with all the volatility. About a month ago I warned of an impending small correction, which as you can see […]

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Set-ups & Market Commentary for 7/13/15

I barely remember what my bias even was last week with all that ended up happening, but it turned out pretty great anyway. As I said last week I am not convinced the lows are in. I still think we could see another flush down, but we will get there when the time is right....

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Open Interest for 7/17/15

Killer week we had. Honestly, there is no way I could have traded the way we did without knowing open interest. Let’s hope the volatility stays. Next week is monthly expiration and just as a reminder, the open interest changes less (if at all) during monthly expiration. Let’s hop right into next week. SPY: Here’s...

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Open Interest for Expiration 7/10/15

The theme I outlined last week based on the open interest was bearish and that turned out to be correct. Most of it happened overnight and Monday so the rest of the week ended up being pretty slow. It was also a good demonstration of the importance of when to trade and when not to. Trading only...

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Set-ups & Market Commentary for 7/6/15

Well I’ve been saying I was smelling a correction around the corner. Now we are in correction territory and navigating through it. There is no way to know how we will open Monday morning which is why I decided not to keep any SPY options over the weekend. With all the uncertainty over the weekend...

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Will the Bears Cheer or Jeer Next Week?

For the last few weeks, I have been writing about a looming small correction. Last weekend here I was bearish biased and that turned out to be correct, but if you hadn’t come into Monday short it was definitely difficult to play. I would be surprised if the low for 2015 was in; however, my main […]

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