Set-ups & Weekly Commentary for 7/27/15

Going into last week I stated that there was limited upside due to the open interest and that turned out to be correct. I did not however think we would get all the way down to 207.5, but I did say that a break of 209 and that was the next likely target. Where I...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest for Expiration 7/31/15

Overall fantastic week even though it ended poorly. ‘You win some, you lose some’ works as long as we win more than we lose which we did :-). Next time I have huge gains like I have in the last two weeks I just got take a couple days off! Anyway, let’s get to next...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Bear Bear Go Away, Come Again Another Day?

Last week here I stated that the SPY open interest suggested “that the market will be rangebound next week, with very little room to move higher, but room to give back some of last weeks gains.” I also thought that shallow dips would be bought, but laid out a game plan in case that failed to […]

Read More →

Read More →

Surprise – The V is Back, but is it a Trap?

Last week here I wrote that my bias was up and there was a good chance SPY would find its way to the 210 level. I had not anticipated that it would continue higher when I originally wrote the post, but did update my views on twitter mid week. First, I cautioned any short attempts by […]

Read More →

Read More →

Setups and Commentary for 7/20/15

What an insanely busy and good week. Good feeling to be on the right side of the trade. Next week we still have big earnings, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the market will have some big moves. In fact, typically after a move similar to what we just got there is either some consolidation or...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest for Expiration 7/24/25

EPIC EPIC EPIC week! I had no idea we were going to put in a bounce like that last week, but good thing is I didn’t need to know to benefit. I had the direction right and that made all the difference. Let’s get right into next week. SPY: The open interest suggests that next week...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Bounce or Bottom? Next Week’s Game Plan

Last week here I discussed my bias being up and that if we were to get a dip below 205 it was a gift and to buy it. That turned out to be very sound advice even with all the volatility. About a month ago I warned of an impending small correction, which as you can see […]

Read More →

Read More →

Set-ups & Market Commentary for 7/13/15

I barely remember what my bias even was last week with all that ended up happening, but it turned out pretty great anyway. As I said last week I am not convinced the lows are in. I still think we could see another flush down, but we will get there when the time is right....

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest for 7/17/15

Killer week we had. Honestly, there is no way I could have traded the way we did without knowing open interest. Let’s hope the volatility stays. Next week is monthly expiration and just as a reminder, the open interest changes less (if at all) during monthly expiration. Let’s hop right into next week. SPY: Here’s...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest for Expiration 7/10/15

The theme I outlined last week based on the open interest was bearish and that turned out to be correct. Most of it happened overnight and Monday so the rest of the week ended up being pretty slow. It was also a good demonstration of the importance of when to trade and when not to. Trading only...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Set-ups & Market Commentary for 7/6/15

Well I’ve been saying I was smelling a correction around the corner. Now we are in correction territory and navigating through it. There is no way to know how we will open Monday morning which is why I decided not to keep any SPY options over the weekend. With all the uncertainty over the weekend...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Will the Bears Cheer or Jeer Next Week?

For the last few weeks, I have been writing about a looming small correction. Last weekend here I was bearish biased and that turned out to be correct, but if you hadn’t come into Monday short it was definitely difficult to play. I would be surprised if the low for 2015 was in; however, my main […]

Read More →

Read More →

Protected: June

There is no excerpt because this is a protected post....

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Will Bears Finally Catch a Break?

Last weekend here I was biased toward a bounce, but after further weakness.  That plan was shattered right from the get-go with a gap up Monday morning. Knowing I was wrong had me quickly adjust my expectations and for the most part sit on my hands. With all the Greek news, potential for window dressing, as well […]

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest for Expiration 7/02/15

Last week right from the get-go we opened around 212 SPY. That threw things off from what my bias had been and kept me very patient rather than forcing trades. I had outlined last weekend that I knew when I was wrong and that I would have to change my approach. All in, the information...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Set-ups and Commentary for Week 6/29/15

Last week was tough and really there weren’t may trades to be had. Next week presents another challenge in that there is likely going to be some Greek news (perhaps over the weekend) and how the market will react to that is a total guess. Also, it’s the end of the quarter and there is...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Breakout, Fake-out, or Something Else?

Last week here I wrote that I expected a dip toward the beginning of the week and that it was a buy for a rip into the end of the week. I also stated that I thought come Friday or Monday we would begin to sell off again which would start a larger correction (more […]

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest for Expiration 6/26/15

Monthly expirations are so awesome. They give so much information to help us make (or not make trades). Last week played out exactly how I thought it would. Now comes the harder part because although I still have a similar bias going forward (that we correct soon); I may need to adjust my timing. I don’t...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Set-ups and Market Commentary for 6/22/15

Nailed last week perfectly! As you know I had expected a correction (rather than a tiny pull-back) to begin Friday. We did move lower Friday, but I didn’t see the kind of action that would lead me to believe the correction has begun. We are not overbought, there was no buying climax, and many individual...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest for 6/19/15 Expiration

Last week worked out very nicely for us knowing where bounces would likely come in and that the market would likely continue to gravitate to the 210 pin. Next week is monthly OPEX so you know the ranges don’t often move to much throughout the week. As much as we can we will take advantage...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Set-ups and Commentary for 6/15/15

Great week last week as we were as prepared as can be in a market that is unpredictable. For the last couple of weeks I have been discussing what I think is looming and I am still in that frame of mind. Before I go into it, let me preface it with I will remain...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

June Swoon, but First…..

Last week here I outlined levels of importance and what to expect based on those levels. That worked out perfectly. I said below SPY 209.5 odds increase of a touch to 207 (check). Then I said above 210 and good chance we see 212 (check). Then I said that we could easily keep gravitating to 210 all […]

Read More →

Read More →

One Perspective on the Market for Next Week

Last week here, I wrote the importance of the 210 level, which did hold during the first dip of the week. Later in the week I updated the open interest over twitter and said that 209 was becoming more relevant and in fact price reached a low of 208.98 and held. We are now back in […]

Read More →

Read More →

Open Interest for Expiration 6/12/15

Open interest was a fantastic guide for pretty much everything last week. One of the best uses of open interest that people fail to see is that it can prevent you from getting into stocks that technically look good, but their open interest doesn’t give it a favorable risk/reward ratio. Just as an example, both...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Set-ups and Commentary for Week 6/8/15

The theme I had going into last week was that bonds (TLT) would drop and financials would catch a bid. That played out very nicely. I also outlined what is potentially setting up in the next couple weeks. Next week I intend to closely monitor all the correlations that would give us clues to see...

This content is for Premium members only.
Log In Register

Read More →

Read More →

Top