Is there any Silver Lining for Next Week?

Last week I titled my post Was Friday’s Bullish Candle a Trap? I was of course referring to the huge rally on Friday 1/29. Now we know the answer. Yes, it obviously was because the only day that went higher last week was Monday. From there on the market took back all of 1/29 gains […]

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Open Interest for Expiration 2/12/16

I don’t even know how to recap the week. It was all over the place, but of course, in general is was once again bearish – the 2016 theme so far. For the most part the momo stocks had been holding up fairly well given the rest of the market, but no longer. Last week...

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Set-ups/Game Plan for 2/8/16

I’m still in awe of how much LNKD fell on Friday. This is a huge message to traders, especially ones that trade the big momentum names. It’s time to sell all rips. Quality stocks (the more boring ones) and some sector rotation ones can be bought on dips and the growth ones are to be...

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Open Interest for 2/1/16

Fun times. Definitely a very challenging environment; but rising to the occasion can be very profitable. As of now the path of least resistance seems higher (with the caveat that next week must have follow through). I don’t believe a bull market is resuming. Thus, although we will concentrate on longs, I will be sure...

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Was Friday’s Bullish Candle a Trap?

Last week here I laid out my thesis for why I was more bullish biased and the importance of 1887. Ironically, even with my bullish bias, I pretty much benefitted more from shorting the first few days of the week and didn’t get long till Thursday. It just goes to show that as much as I […]

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Set-ups and Game Plan for 2/1/16

Crazy week, challenging week, overall profitable week! There is not much I have to say below as I said most of it in the open interest section. Right now we assume higher as long as we see follow through with price and breadth. SPX levels of resistance: 1944, 1950, 1960, 1984. A pullback to 1924...

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Protected: January

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Countertrend Rally or Muted Bounce?

Last week I titled my post Why Friday Afternoon Was a Good Time to Buy and Pyschology. I’m pretty sure that title nailed it as Friday was a good time to buy (at least for the gap up and then the end of the week), but you definitely needed to check your emotions in order to survive […]

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Set-ups and Game Plan for 1/25/16

What we learned to rely on during the bullish trend is over. We really do need to reset our minds to focus on selling stocks into resistance and during counter trend rallies not getting too bullish. I understand people are excited about the current rally and it’s potential, but all it is right now is a...

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Open Interest for Expiration 1/29/16

Most of us love the markets cause we like a good challenge. The market is not letting us down in that sense. Getting long last Friday was the correct play, but profits had to be taken quick because the selling definitely wasn’t done. After getting back bearish we then had to switch again. The good news...

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Why Friday Afternoon Was a Good Time to Buy & Psychology

Last week here I was very clear that our market was no longer one you blindly buy the dip into, that the rules have changed, and that to survive you would need to adapt pronto. I further went on to describe that we were likely trading in a bear market, which I had also suggested and wrote […]

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Open Interest for 1/22/16 Expiration

Last week did some serious damage to the market and probably to many psyche’s. I know a lot of people got very hurt and I am super grateful that I was able to figure out what was going on and be on the correct side. This market is anything buy easy. The volatility is great...

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Set-ups and Game Plan for Week 1/19/16

In my opinion we nailed last week. In one of the largest drawdowns in this bull market we were 1) on the correct side and 2) didn’t get trapped into buying every dip. That to me is a win. I know for a fact that had we been playing the buy the dip game all week...

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The Bears Have Awoken and Have Spoken

Last week here I discussed the possibility of a buying opportunity as things were getting close to oversold and the open interest favored buying the dip. BOY WAS I WRONG! After things started to really deteriorate Tuesday I started to wake up to the fact that this wasn’t the normal get a bit over sold […]

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Open Interest for Expiration 1/15/16

Stocks drop for 5 days straight, Happy New Year folks!!!! LOL. I was definitely on the wrong side at the start of the week with a BTD mentality. Luckily I saw the light quickly and adapted. When so much of the open interest is not working, it’s always a big clue. As I said last...

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Set-ups & Game Plan for 1/11/16

It’s been quite the week. I’m pretty sure nobody  (including myself) expected that type of start to the year. Regardless, as traders it doesn’t really matter as long as we can align ourselves with the correct side, which we did mid-week. Although the market is oversold based on what oversold has looked like for the last few...

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A New Year & New Trends, But Maybe Not Yet

New year, new trends, new opportunities. Of course the market is just going to continue from where it left off, but since we measure trends and out-performers (i.e. NFLX, AMZN) /under-performers (i.e. anything energy related) often by years, we will begin to see new ones emerge. What comes to mind in that sense is opportunity! […]

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Game Plan and Set-ups for Week 1/4/16

Very nice end to a very challenging year. With a new year will come new trends and out-perfomers/under-performers, but they will likely take a little time to develop. In that sense, whatever happens next week may not necessarily be the gauge to the rest of the year. Although most people will be back at their...

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Open Interest for Expiration 1/8/16

Welcome to 2016! 2015 ended essentially flat and I am happy to be moving on from it and hope we soon start to trend again. New year, new opportunities, and hopefully new trading environment. Let’s get right into it. SPY: On the surface this is bullish and once again we start the week with the...

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Protected: 2015

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A Year to Forget & Probably a Week to Forget as Well

Last week here I mentioned the positives and negatives demonstrating that there was better chances of a bounce early in the week due to seasonality, oversold conditions, and the VIX expiration on Wednesday morning. I posted the open interest to show that the upside could be limited by the high calls at 206. The week pretty […]

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Open Interest for Expiration 12/31/15

Last week the VIX and SPY expiration led us the right way. Market bounced and then basically stalled the rest of the week. Also pretty much all the momentum stocks followed their open interest by not exceeding their high call or put strikes. That led to a great play with GS so with next week...

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Set-ups and Game plan for week 12/28/15

Last week price got the bounce I mentioned due to being oversold and the VIX expiration, but price couldn’t rally much from there. Next week we know will be super slow so any opportunities we take are going to be for short-term plays. The year is almost over and there could be some funds readjusting....

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12/23 Update

Market completely lame and choppy until the last 15 minutes when it appears Santa may be on his way. Currently futures moving higher as I write this and it seems as of now a good sign. For now I think we can continue to see rallying especially given everything I wrote this weekend. If that...

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Did the Crazy Weather Prevent Santa From Flying in This Year?

Last week here I anticipated a likely bounce before the Fed to SPY 205. It overachieved that. I also highlighted the risk of a drop due to all the puts and delta hedging. In no way was last week easy to play and I missed a lot of it being on a trip and then […]

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Set-ups and Game Plan for 12/21/15

Only two more weeks left. Remember next week is shortened so options should be cheaper (meaning don’t overpay as if it was a Monday), but you also have much less time for things to work. I outlined most of SPY in the overall market. Here is what it has going for it: Seasonality is strong...

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Open Interest for Expiration 12/24/15

What a week! Granted I missed a lot of it (probably for the best), but we did go back up to the area around 205 by Fed, which I had anticipated well. The events after FOMC were a whole another story. I imagine it was a very tough week for anyone there the entire week,...

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Open Interest for Expiration 12/18/15

What a nasty week!! The two best things I did all week was sell 3/4 of my CMG puts Monday morning and tell us (me and you guys) to keep everything small till the FOMC. Next week is Quad witching, but more important is obviously FOMC. In case you missed it, I will not be trading or...

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Important Lessons From Last Week – Delta Hedging & Options

Last week was a good example of what can happen when price begins to fall through heavy put strikes and something that short term traders should be aware of even if they don’t trade options. Last week here, I posted the open interest for the start of the week which had a more bullish look […]

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The Countdown is Finally Over

Last week here, I was bullish biased thinking the market wouldn’t do too much as it waited for the Fed, but that it would at least hold up due to all the puts that had potential to act as support. Instead price struggled from the start of the week to push over the puts and […]

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Market Countdown to FOMC

Last week here I said the path of least resistance was higher, but not to be too ambitious about how far it can go. I also tweeted out several times to “curb your enthusiasm on any rallies.” Indeed the market did go higher to hit exactly 211, but was met with a swift rejection. The […]

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Open Interest for Expiration 12/11/15

Open interest seriously told the story last week. It could not have been more accurate. Of course it’s hard to know which direction comes first, but it definitely gave opportunities (too many that I missed!). I don’t know if next week will be more of the same, but it will be likely for many of...

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Set-ups and Game Plan for 12/7/15

There was nothing easy about last week, but we played it pretty well given the high volatility (some of you better than me from my alerts – ahem’QQQ :-)). And we are going to have an awesome Monday morning thanks to CMG (I did say they would have to guide down – didn’t realize it would...

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Is the Path of Least Resistance too Ambitious?

Last week here instead of just writing about what I expected from the market as a whole (since my expectations were of mostly a grind) I gave some stock ideas. All of the ones that triggered except for one reached at least its initial target (with room for more) and one is still on its […]

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Open Interest for 12/4/15 Expiration

One month left!!! Last week was basically a waste of time. Took some profits from winners, added a couple things and mostly sat around bored. With one month left and volume likely to dry up toward Christmas, next week hopefully sees some better action. Plus the big anticipated ‘rate decision’ is coming this month. SPY:...

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Set-ups and Game Plan for week 11/30/15

Last week was rather boring where the market remained in a very tight range. We managed to find a couple good gems, but really was a waste of a week. I imagine that range breaks next week and the path of least resistance is higher; however I think we need to be on the lookout...

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Update for Expiration 11/27/15

Happy Thanksgiving! Here is a quick update on a few with open interest changes. Given the half day and light volume most of these will likely pin, but if we get a couple gap ups over their high calls we know there could be a winner. Remember that Friday will most likely be very very...

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A Thanksgiving of Momentum?

Last week here I was definitely leaning bearish and boy was I wrong. After the Monday afternoon strength I reassessed the evidence and flipped bullish by Tuesday morning. Not only was price invalidating my bearish thesis, but so was psychology as you can see with my comments to subscribers below. From there on, the week […]

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Set-ups/Game Plan for Week 11/23/15

Next week is a shortened week and there will be light volume and possibly a slow grind higher in SPX. We are coming off an awesome week so plan for next week is to keep it light in terms of starting swings, but definitely take opportunities where we see them in momentum movers. Next week...

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Open Interest for 11/27/15

Killer week! It just goes to show that letting go of ego is so important to trading. I came in bearish and had I stayed that way I would have been decimated. Instead we banked big time. Next week is a shortened week because Thursday is closed and Friday is a half day. That will...

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The Times They Are a-Changin’

Last week here I was neutral short term, but expecting pullbacks to be bought. Here is what I wrote: Main view for next week: I’m neutral as to whether we move higher, consolidate sideways or pull back. You may not find that helpful, but I’m not going to lie and tell you I have a strong […]

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Set-ups and Game Plan for 11/16/15

Last week was something to sit-up and take notice of.  It was a definite sign that the rally from the September low was a bear market rally and not the resumption of the bullish trend since 2009. It is still too early to know, but as of now it is looking much more like it....

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Open Interest for Expiration 11/20/15

After an amazing streak, last week was rough. It happens. It is part of the game and now it’s time to shake it off and come back with a clear head so we can get back onto a winning streak. I read that the last time we had a fall similar to last week after...

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Did Wall Street or Spain Term the Phrase Running of the Bulls?

Just kidding, I know the answer. Last week here, I was bullish overall, but biased for a minor pullback. However, I wrote “Although I am biased toward a minor pullback ensuing next week I am open to the possibility that it won’t take place. What would change my mind is a further rally above Friday’s high with internal […]

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Open Interest for Expiration 11/13/15

SICK SICK SICK week! Ok moving on. In a strong market similar to the last month, pins tend to get destroyed and price moves above the highest calls with strength (this happens the opposite way in a very weak market). As you may have noticed I have been less focused on pins and call resistance...

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Set-ups and Game Plan for 11/9/15

We have had an amazing month and I remember last weekend saying that gains that big will be harder to come by and yet we had an even better week last week. So I feel the need to remind myself mostly (but also you guys) that expecting such huge returns often leads to greed and...

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Protected: October

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Will the Bears Make Their Move in November?

Last week here, I put forth another case for the bulls after already being a bull for three straight weeks. That of course worked out very well. Last week I also made it very clear here and several times on twitter, that a weekly MACD cross has resulted in a higher close the following week 10 out […]

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Open Interest for Expiration 11/06/15

Killer week!!!! It’s been an amazing October. I’m just going to get right into the open interest for next week. The overall theme for these momentum stocks is to buy call options on pull-backs into support. Much of where support will be found will depend on the overall market in general, but below is a guide...

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Set-ups and Game Plan for Week 11/2/15

Last week I discussed that the weekly MACD bullish cross has left us higher 10 out of 10 times. Now that stat stands at 11 out of 11. It was a fun (and exhausting) week. I don’t think November is going to be straight up like October so we got our work cut out for...

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Surprise: A Christmas (Hanukkah) in October

Last week here (and for the last 3 weeks), I very clearly laid out a more bullish bias. Furthermore, I highlighted possible weakness Tuesday into Wednesday, but tweeted out during that weakness “but don’t forget to buy the dip.” I appreciate that so many followers of mine find my work helpful and want to know […]

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Open Interest for Expiration 10/30/15

Phenomenal week! Although for the second week in a row a lot of things did not pin, it didn’t stop us from being long the right things. Sometimes it’s just better not to go with the pin and instead just go with the chart. We have more earnings around the corner so as usual those graphs I won’t...

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Set-ups and Game Plan for Week 10/26/15

Spot on last week being on the bullish side. Last week was the second week in a row that seemed as if nobody was on the bullish page with me (just anecdotally through twitter). However, by the end of the week it seemed a lot of people had been converted. That typically spells trouble, but...

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Up Up and …….

Last week here I outlined a bullish thesis and recommended getting long on dips at specific levels that were outlined. Then on Wednesday when SPX pulled back to 1995 I tweeted out this: It turned out that was indeed very good support and longs initiated there were handsomely rewarded. As a side note, I want new traders (or […]

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Open Interest for Expiration 10/23/15

Last week was tricky, something I had anticipated in last weekends post. One big thing that happened last week is many things failed to pin even though it was monthly OPEX. Notice last week for some stocks I didn’t trust that they would pin and went with the technical picture instead (SPY, FB, etc). This was...

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Set-ups and Game Plan for 10/19/15

Very challenging week. Honestly I think one of the most challenging parts for me was the amount of bearishness I was reading during the down days last week. I felt like the lone bull. It’s always hard to trust what you know when you see others smart people making logical points. In the end I...

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Running of the Bulls

Last week here, I laid out a compelling bullish case for the week and targeted the 200-201 SPY area. I said from there it was likely to stall and even more likely to pull-back. Stall it did, pull-back it did not. If you had the direction of the market correct last week, the opportunities were […]

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Open Interest for Expiration 10/16/15

Insanely great week! Nothing more to say about it then that, so let’s get onto next week. It’s monthly expiration so the open interest tends to stick better and not change as much throughout the week. We are also headed into earnings season, so for earnings plays I don’t comment on the open interest because...

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Set-ups and Game Plan for 10/12/15

We were completely in-tune with the market last week. I very clearly outlined the scenario to 200/201 level and it worked out beautifully. It even continued to my astonishment showing no signs of anything being given back, which is why we didn’t fight it. Where the market currently sits, makes things a bit trickier than...

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Taylor Swift Asks, ‘Are we out of the Woods?’

Last week here I outlined a more bullish thesis and showed two separate open interest graphs for SPY, the quarterly and the weekly. The main theses was we would close above 192 on Wednesday (check), and that the best pin on Friday would be 195 (check). The path to getting  those was surely not smooth or […]

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Open Interest for Expiration 10/09/15

Phenomenal ending to a challenging week. I admit it started out a bit rough, but I stuck to my guns, was open minded and it ended up being an awesome week. Over 1000% in a day is nothing to sneeze about! As I said on Friday the open interest suggests a bullish week ahead, but that was...

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Set-ups and Game Plan for 10/5/15

Insane week! I did say last week the best pin was 195. The path it took to get there though was definitely not anticipated. In the end it was a very successful week even though I think I need to start checking my hair for grays now. Onto next week. As of now the short-term...

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One Last Hurrah or Sayonara?

Last week here I was more biased to the upside as long as SPY stayed above 195. Well it failed to stay above there and I tweeted an updated open interest that looked much less bullish, suggesting that 190 would be the next support. Buying a little ahead of that on Thursday proved to be […]

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Open Interest for Expiration 10/02/15

Disturbing week to say the least. Overall, the week went OK. I wish I had bought a bunch of bio puts Friday morning to change an ok week to a phenomenal week, but then that would have been too perfect right. Anyway, won some, lost some and moving on. I am going to post both the...

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Set-ups & Game Plan for 9/28/15

This market is definitely not letting up with the volatility. Although that makes things very challenging, you can see how it can also lead to enormous gains in a very short period of time with options. I will continue to concentrate on the high momentum stocks and indexes, but have some other gem set-ups below. Bottom line,...

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A Bounce Potential Early Next Week?

Last week here, I discussed my bullish bias and that if SPY remained above 195 there was a good chance we would get to at least 200. That worked out perfectly as SPY hit 200 on Wednesday. I tweeted out Wednesday that my target had been hit and I had no expectations going into the […]

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Set-ups and Game Plan for Week 9/21/15

The volatility continues and as long as that is the case we will continue to play things with shorter time frames and through the larger movers. Last week was great. When we have weeks like that it’s important not to put all the money back to work and risk losing the profits made. This volatility...

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Open Interest for 9/25/15 Expiration

Crushed last week! Now onto next week. We are still in an intermediate term downtrend and the odds of a V-shape rally to new highs are not great, but it is still possible we have another bounce coming very soon. Of note though (and this is just to keep in the back of our mind, not as a...

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Quad Witching, S&P Roll Over, & FOMC Oh My!

Last week here I showed the enormous amount of puts from 193 and below. I discussed how that is typically a bullish sign, but hard to trust in the recent environment. Then on Tuesday morning I tweeted an update that showed a bunch of calls from 200 on. In the end SPY pinned in between them […]

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Open Interest for Expiration 9/18/15

Quad witching coming right up! These past few weeks have been insane! Not the greatest start to the week, but the week ended much better. Volatility helps in that respect. Next week is monthly OPEX, therefore most of these open interest graphs will not change much. Let’s get right into it! SPY: As I said on...

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Set-ups/Game Plan for Week 9/14/15

Last week wore me out. Very happy Friday gave us some good trades. Staying afloat is major in this market. Anyway, the volatility is likely not over, partly because of the big FOMC decision next week. Given that, I’m going to continue with the same format that I have for the past several weeks. I will...

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Will Put Holders be Rewarded This Week?

Last week here I went over the 2011 period, not as an analogue, but to demonstrate an outcome other than the V-bottoms we have become accustomed to. If you haven’t read it, I recommend that you take a look as there are many similarities between the 2011 correction and this current one. Again I don’t […]

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Open Interest for Expiration 9/11/15

Super tough and volatile week and yet profitable. This market is NOT easy, but look how so many of those option levels helped us navigate (i.e. the AMZN trade or GS if we had taken it). In this environment I can’t rely on the open interest as much, but they definitely are helping us know where...

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Set-ups/Game Plan for Week 9/8/15

Market definitely keeping us on our toes, but I’m loving the challenge. Not losing money in this environment is challenging enough so it’s awesome that we are profiting. The strategy for this next week is going to remain the same. We will concentrate on the momo’s and the indexes. Trying to find set-ups everywhere is...

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Will the Bulls Charge Their Way to New Highs?

Last week here I stressed that oversold can stay oversold and that I believed the market had not bottomed. I laid out the bullish and bearish arguments and it was clear that the bearish ones had more going for them. I also drew some comparisons to the 2014 October correction as an exercise that steep […]

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Open Interest for Expiration 9/04/15

Great great week. We waited for the right opportunity and when it came the returns were huge. A great reminder that sitting out when the risk/reward isn’t great pays forward. I understand it is frustrating sitting out when you see people on twitter saying they made this much and they caught this bottom etc. However, I...

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Set-ups and Game Plan for Week 8/31/15

One of the most insane weeks in months, perhaps years. I was very clear last week that I was not in the camp of an imminent bounce and that was key. By remaining on the sidelines we were actually able to catch the main thrust of the bounce. Now the question becomes, is it a...

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Buy the dip or Sell the Rip?

Last week here I discussed a more bullish bias with the caveat that there was one big strike at on the SPY open interest at 205 and price could get there or undercut it by a bit. I also said that it would be a great place to buy the dip. I was wrong and […]

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Set-ups and Game Plan for 8/24/15

Hands down bears won last week. The move lower is not over. Whether we flush first and then move higher or we bounce and then move lower is not something anyone can predict; however, we can and will play this volatility. There is no doubt the market is oversold, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the market...

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Open Interest for Expiration 8/28/15

Whoa! Didn’t see that coming. Open interest got smacked by the selling. The last time that happened on a monthly OPEX was October 2014 (which provided information that I carried forward into last week). On Thursday, after the failure of price to get back above 205 a second time, I stopped trying to catch the bounce....

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OPEX and One Strike Domination

Last week here I wrote: “I am still not convinced the market has bottomed, but overall my main bias for next week leans bullish” and gave a guide on SPY and what to expect (how to play it). Below is what I wrote: “Here is a guide for SPY next week: SPY below 208 and not able to […]

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Open Interest for Expiration 8/21/15

AMAZING WEEK!!!!! We nailed pretty much every market turn to the upside and downside AND had huge winners in individual stocks. Next week is monthly OPEX so most of the open interest will not change during the week. SPY: Overall this is a bullish open interest graph. Having said that there is not much put...

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Set-ups and Game Plan for 8/17/15

Superb week, which is wonderful and should be acknowledged, but now back to work so we can continue the streak. Monthly OPEX in general tends to be bullish, but that is not something I would base my analysis on. However, it’s helpful to know because it coincides with a bullish open interest. As I said in the...

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What Goes Up Must Come Down – So Opposite True Right?

Last week here I wrote “Taking the open interest at face value first suggests that price will continue to gravitate to the 210/211 level and second, suggests a more neutral to bearish week is upon us.” I also outlined several thorough scenarios of what to expect based on where price goes and if you go […]

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Set-ups and Trading Plan for Week 8/10/15

Last week the game plan was right on point, but as you saw it was extremely difficult to trade and required lots of patience. This trading environment is so tricky and it’s teaching me/us the importance of sticking to the plan because they really do work. As I mentioned last week, I don’t think the bottom...

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Open Interest for Expiration 8/14/15

What a draining week. The open interest definitely nailed the outcome, but man did they make it so hard to hold those puts after that gap up Wednesday. It really does just reaffirm that it’s best to stick to the plan because more times than not it works and over time that averages to mostly...

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Open Interest For Expiration for 8/7/15

Last week the open interest pointed to a bullish week with a potential target for SPY 210 and then 211. That worked, but it definitely wasn’t easy. Earnings are winding down now so the open interest for the momentum stocks will become more relevant again. Also, based on the decent high strikes of puts or...

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Set-ups and Commentary for 8/03/15

It was correct to be bullish biased last week with a buy the dip mentality. It didn’t lead to a whole lot gains with such small movements and being too early, but so be it. In the open interest post I highlight that next week appears to have a neutral to bearish bias. As you...

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Are Bulls for Real or Will a Bear Appear?

Last week here I wrote that I am  “still not convinced that the lows for the year were in and after last week am more convinced that they are not. Having said that, I do think the market will bounce first before moving lower.” That worked out well and my view has not changed. Having already bounced […]

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Protected: July

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Set-ups & Weekly Commentary for 7/27/15

Going into last week I stated that there was limited upside due to the open interest and that turned out to be correct. I did not however think we would get all the way down to 207.5, but I did say that a break of 209 and that was the next likely target. Where I...

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Open Interest for Expiration 7/31/15

Overall fantastic week even though it ended poorly. ‘You win some, you lose some’ works as long as we win more than we lose which we did :-). Next time I have huge gains like I have in the last two weeks I just got take a couple days off! Anyway, let’s get to next...

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Bear Bear Go Away, Come Again Another Day?

Last week here I stated that the SPY open interest suggested “that the market will be rangebound next week, with very little room to move higher, but room to give back some of last weeks gains.” I also thought that shallow dips would be bought, but laid out a game plan in case that failed to […]

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Surprise – The V is Back, but is it a Trap?

Last week here I wrote that my bias was up and there was a good chance SPY would find its way to the 210 level. I had not anticipated that it would continue higher when I originally wrote the post, but did update my views on twitter mid week. First, I cautioned any short attempts by […]

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Setups and Commentary for 7/20/15

What an insanely busy and good week. Good feeling to be on the right side of the trade. Next week we still have big earnings, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the market will have some big moves. In fact, typically after a move similar to what we just got there is either some consolidation or...

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Open Interest for Expiration 7/24/25

EPIC EPIC EPIC week! I had no idea we were going to put in a bounce like that last week, but good thing is I didn’t need to know to benefit. I had the direction right and that made all the difference. Let’s get right into next week. SPY: The open interest suggests that next week...

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