Will Bears Finally Catch a Break?

Last weekend here I was biased toward a bounce, but after further weakness.  That plan was shattered right from the get-go with a gap up Monday morning. Knowing I was wrong had me quickly adjust my expectations and for the most part sit on my hands. With all the Greek news, potential for window dressing, as well […]

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Open Interest for Expiration 7/02/15

Last week right from the get-go we opened around 212 SPY. That threw things off from what my bias had been and kept me very patient rather than forcing trades. I had outlined last weekend that I knew when I was wrong and that I would have to change my approach. All in, the information...

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week 6/29/15

Last week was tough and really there weren’t may trades to be had. Next week presents another challenge in that there is likely going to be some Greek news (perhaps over the weekend) and how the market will react to that is a total guess. Also, it’s the end of the quarter and there is...

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Breakout, Fake-out, or Something Else?

Last week here I wrote that I expected a dip toward the beginning of the week and that it was a buy for a rip into the end of the week. I also stated that I thought come Friday or Monday we would begin to sell off again which would start a larger correction (more […]

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Open Interest for Expiration 6/26/15

Monthly expirations are so awesome. They give so much information to help us make (or not make trades). Last week played out exactly how I thought it would. Now comes the harder part because although I still have a similar bias going forward (that we correct soon); I may need to adjust my timing. I don’t...

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Set-ups and Market Commentary for 6/22/15

Nailed last week perfectly! As you know I had expected a correction (rather than a tiny pull-back) to begin Friday. We did move lower Friday, but I didn’t see the kind of action that would lead me to believe the correction has begun. We are not overbought, there was no buying climax, and many individual...

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Open Interest for 6/19/15 Expiration

Last week worked out very nicely for us knowing where bounces would likely come in and that the market would likely continue to gravitate to the 210 pin. Next week is monthly OPEX so you know the ranges don’t often move to much throughout the week. As much as we can we will take advantage...

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Set-ups and Commentary for 6/15/15

Great week last week as we were as prepared as can be in a market that is unpredictable. For the last couple of weeks I have been discussing what I think is looming and I am still in that frame of mind. Before I go into it, let me preface it with I will remain...

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June Swoon, but First…..

Last week here I outlined levels of importance and what to expect based on those levels. That worked out perfectly. I said below SPY 209.5 odds increase of a touch to 207 (check). Then I said above 210 and good chance we see 212 (check). Then I said that we could easily keep gravitating to 210 all […]

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One Perspective on the Market for Next Week

Last week here, I wrote the importance of the 210 level, which did hold during the first dip of the week. Later in the week I updated the open interest over twitter and said that 209 was becoming more relevant and in fact price reached a low of 208.98 and held. We are now back in […]

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Open Interest for Expiration 6/12/15

Open interest was a fantastic guide for pretty much everything last week. One of the best uses of open interest that people fail to see is that it can prevent you from getting into stocks that technically look good, but their open interest doesn’t give it a favorable risk/reward ratio. Just as an example, both...

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week 6/8/15

The theme I had going into last week was that bonds (TLT) would drop and financials would catch a bid. That played out very nicely. I also outlined what is potentially setting up in the next couple weeks. Next week I intend to closely monitor all the correlations that would give us clues to see...

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Protected: May

There is no excerpt because this is a protected post....

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Next Week Determines it All

It’s sarcasm, calm down. I couldn’t think of (and wasn’t interested) in trying to be creative for my title this week. Anyway, as there isn’t much new to report I will make this quick and easy. Overbought/Oversold: There is very little interesting here, but will update it for regular readers. SPX stocks at 20-day highs: Completely […]

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Open Interest for Expiration 6/5/15

Last week was uneventful in the markets, hence why I had few trades. The pinning seemed to work very well though on most of the stocks. Now we enter June. Let’s get right into it. SPY: This is considered bullish as long as 210 holds. If price falls below 210 I think we could easily...

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week 6/1/15

Once again there isn’t much of anything new to report since the week pretty much ended where it started. We had a few good plays last week, but were mostly was hands off. Next week I believe there are more opportunities. Regarding the overall market you can see what I wrote in the open interest...

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Open Interest for Expiration 5/29/15

What an uneventful week except for having some nice profits on Thursday. Last expiration week for May coming up. SPY: I wish this told us more, but really the only thing it tells us is that if SPY can finally breakout it likely gets stopped in it’s track at 215. Other than that we need...

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week 5/26/15

Last weekend I had a ‘slightly’ bullish bias and it turns out we went ‘slightly’ higher, albeit most of  the gains took place early in the week. Overall for next week there really isn’t much more for me to say than what I have been saying on twitter all last week. We are consolidating at the highs,...

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Breakout or Fake-out, Again?

Last week here, I candidly admitted that I had no real bias coming into the week. That changed Tuesday morning at around 10:30, right about the time the market rallied higher never to look back. I even sent out a tweet right before the rally began to highlight what I was seeing.    Overbought/Oversold: I […]

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Open Interest for Expiration 5/22/15

Monthly opex over and we are back to weeklies. Was an interesting week with finally some movement after holding 210 for a few days. The big question of course is does the breakout hold. Because we are back to weeklies there will be more open interest changes during the week then there was last week....

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week 5/18/15

I’m glad I came into the week without a bias because I never would have been able to predict how the week played out. It also allowed me to be flexible and cover my SPY puts at pretty much the perfect time. Although we are at all time highs, it’s very hard to be super...

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Open Interest for Expiration 5/15/15

Another week where we went nowhere and yet had a decent down move as I had suspected based on the SPY open interest. Next week is Monthly OPEX and as you know those have much more staying power and rarely change throughout the week. Here we go: SPY: Currently best pin is at 210 and...

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Set-ups & Market Commentary for Week 5/11/15

First, I want to thank you all for your patience while I was less active due to visiting my family in LA. As we now know in hindsight I really didn’t miss much and it probably kept me out of trouble. The market is still in a range and until then I think scraping money out...

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The Big Move Is…..

Last week I was out of town and posted the SPY open interest on my twitter stating that it looked similar to the week prior and worth a read (which is here). The main take away was that any rally would likely be sold and a swift sell-off was a good probability. That indeed happened as Monday […]

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Set-ups & Commentary for Week 5/4/15

Last week we didn’t get caught chasing the market knowing that the odds did not favor a breakout, but did favor a swift sell-off which is what ended up happening. The market is still not trending frustrating everyone. As I noted in the open interest, next week is offering a similar set-up although rare to...

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