Set-ups and Commentary for Week Starting 3/2/15

The last few weeks we have been able to ride the trend well and find good opportunities among select stocks. Next week I believe is going to be more challenging because I don’t see good risk/reward for either the upside or downside. My bias is that we have more room to the downside then the upside next week,...

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Open Interest for Expiration 3/28/15

The last few weeks have been great with lots of good opportunities. Unfortunately, I think next week is going to offer less opportunity and might require a bit more patience and tactical trades. The market is near a spot that doesn’t offer much reward in either direction (more about that in the set-ups/commentary post). My...

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A Healthy Market Pause Looming

Last week here I wrote “I took a look at every bullish weekly MACD signal cross since March 2009. In each of the 10 instances, the market continued to make higher highs the following week 100% of the time. Furthermore, in 9 of 10 instances the market also closed higher to end the week. The one instance […]

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February

Riskier/short-term...

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New Year, New Highs, Same Ole Bears

Last week here I wrote that the path of least resistance for the week ahead was higher, which played out nicely. This week, the same is true, yet as a short-term trader I am more cognizant of the psychology starting to shift regarding the current market place as I will explain. Last week, anecdotally speaking, my sense was […]

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week Starting 2/23/15

Last week we again were on the correct side of the market. A couple paper-cuts early in the week were made up for with very profitable trades at end of the week. More and more stocks are looking good, which is bullish; however, often when that happens it’s time to prepare for a mild pull-back/consolidation....

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Open Interest for Expiration 2/27/15

Last week the open interest did a pretty good job of helping us determine ranges as well as  breakouts (such as FB, TSLA) and which ones weren’t ready (such as GOOGL). Next week also has some good ranges and open interests that I think will lead to good trades in these momentum stocks. Lots of them below look...

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Is the Chop Really Over?

After over two months of rangebound choppy action we finally made all time highs on Friday. Those that have fought the recent rally can list a plethora or reasons why the recent high is bearish; however, let there be no mistake that closing at highs is bullish as it has been in every other instance since […]

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Open Interest for Expiration 2/20/15

Monthly expiration is upon us which means the open interest will change less throughout the week and allow us the opportunity to see potential ranges as well as trade them. It also gives us insight into how strong the below momentum stocks are based on how they respond to high call areas that typically align with...

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Set-ups & Commentary for Week Starting 2/17/15

After over two months of rangebound choppy action we finally made all time highs on Friday. This is bullish, especially since it is being met with at or near highs on the other indices. Being bullish though doesn’t necessarily mean it is going to go higher next week as a consolidation period is often followed...

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Open Interest for Expiration 2/13/15

As I said last week I think the open interest has been very useful recently. Sometimes (for instance during trending slower markets) open interest helps, but is more difficult to interpret and play. With the pick up in volatility I am noticing the calls and puts as being much more informative and helpful. Also, as...

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week Starting 2/9/15

We had a good week playing the volatility last week and as of now it appears we had a false breakdown (Monday morning) and are now breaking to the upside. With the recent volatility and still no sold evidence that we will in fact trend higher I will again lay out several scenarios we can...

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Stay On Your Toes Or Be Stepped On

Last week here I wrote that I wouldn’t be surprised if we went below SPY 200 and then went on to test the other side of the recent range at 204. Both did in fact take place before the market then went on to break the wedge that many market participants have had their eyes on. The […]

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Yo We Goin’ Lower Next Week or What?

After last week I haven’t read much except for bearish implications. I too have already discussed that in my posts, particularly the one titled An Intermittent Bottom Perhaps, but Swing Bottom in Question, posted on January 19th. I still do not think the bottom is in; however, I also don’t think there won’t be some shake-outs […]

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Open Interest for Expiration 2/6/15

With all the increased volatility I’m seeing larger strikes on both sides. This is a positive for us because it helps define ranges better and based on how this week plays out (whether we start down or start up) I will use the open interest ranges to find good trades. I noticed that the last...

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Set-ups and Weekly Commentary for Week Starting 2/2/15

This market is definitely making things very challenging. In my view that is a good thing because I strive off challenges and this market is certainly providing opportunities if you can be on the right side of them. I have only a couple of set-ups only because my main focus is going to be on...

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January 2015

Risky/Lotto’s...

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Next Weeks Road Map $SPY $QQQ $IWM

In last weeks post I talked about a probable bounce, but a new high being in question. We got the bounce and so the obvious question becomes do we see a 2013/2014 move to new highs now or are we putting in a lower high and continuing back into correction zone? With the Greek election outcome, a […]

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Open Interest for 1/30/15 Expiration

This could be a really fun week with earnings and potential run up to earnings. All the ones that have earnings I will post but without comment since earnings can and probably will change them. After earnings I will comment on them regarding what might happen next. I also will likely play weeklies next week. For...

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week Starting 1/26/15

So we got the bounce and of course the big question now is will it take us to new highs or has it now trapped many longs? With the Greek elections not going in the markets favor there is a chance for a gap down tonight/tomorrow. As usual, we are not going to know how...

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An Intermittent Bottom perhaps, but Swing Bottom in Question

As I mentioned in my post One Big Game of F***ery on Thursday, I think a lot of the price action last week had to do with January expiration. Given that it was a monthly expiration and the first one of the year it had quite a large amount of open calls and puts that when being closed or […]

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Set-ups and Commentary for Week Starting 1/20/15

Last week was completely crazy and as I said all week it was one big vacuum of premium. Basically the entire week just seemed to revolve around pinning. Obviously more was at work than that, but it would be hard to deny that options played a HUGE role. Anyway, we did end up going lower...

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Open Interest for Expiration 1/23/15

Now that the monthly January OPEX is over, the pinning will again become a little more muted so the ranges will be more flexible and we can hopefully get better movement in the market. SPY: This one is interesting and I am going to show you two different views. The first one shows where we...

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One Big Game of F***ery!

It’s been a while since I’ve mused, and hoping I begin to contribute more regularly again. Let’s discuss 2015 a bit shall we. What a game of f***ery. Traders love to say the volatility provides such a great environment to make quick dough and they are correct; however, much easier said than done. As much […]

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