Ok so my Rest In Peace V-bottom post a couple weekends ago was obviously a horrible title. The message within it was so far* pretty off in that I expected a drop back to the lows or lower lows after a decent size bounce. I certainly did not expect the bounce to take place so […]
There is no telling what Janet will say or how the market will take it. What I will say is that after looking at lots of charts it does seem like this move can and likely will go higher. Many charts look like they are ready for big breakouts, breadth is expanding, SPX made a...
Let’s be honest here, this market is completely bi-polar and for the most part crushing people. Taking a step back a few weeks ago to trade very short term was a brilliant move in hindsight. In fact, these past few weeks have been a great trading environment for anyone who was able to adapt and not...
There are a lot of earnings coming out next week so most of these I think we will need to reassess after they report. SPY: For right now this appears bullish with 195 as support. My current bias is it will stay above 195 till at least Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. If it loses 195...
GM everyone. I am fairly surprised to not see us lower upon the Ebola news last night. I will say that I really don’t see much edge going in to today. We have had a really great weak and the last thing I want to do is give back some profits before my weekend. I...
GM – what a week it has been and it’s only Wednesday morning! Going back to my weekend write-up this was the move I was leaning to (albeit I did not expect it to happen in 4 days as u can see below). In both those scenarios I am looking for a target of first...
GM – Futures up nicely this morning. Not only does this not phase me, but I was hoping for this scenario. As I said over the weekend I would like to see us rally the first part of the week so that we can look for opportunities to fade. Now I’m sure you are asking,...
Overall I see a lot of opportunity with these open interest charts; however they all have to meet certain conditions. I have notes on them all, but the main premise is we want to get a strong market bounce next week so that price gets over many of these high calls. Then we want to...
There is no doubt that this market is really tricky right now and there is no telling where it’s going to go. To say that a bottom is in I think is currently premature. We got very oversold and relieved much of that with the bounce on Thursday and Friday; however the strength behind the...
GM – As of now things are looking great for the open. For the most part we were very patient this week and then getting long and holding it overnight was a good choice. I am going to outline a few open interest charts that I think can provide opportunities for you day traders. I...
As I have been pointing out the conditions are definitely in place for a rally minus a TRIN over 2. In the last two years not every condition to bounce had to be met, which is more proof that this time is different (as if you didn’t already know). A TRIN reading over 2 would...
GM- I figured this would be easier than posting a million things on TWTR. So here is the deal. We are no doubt oversold. This is not a secret and pretty much everyone knows that, which I feel is the danger in catching a bounce. However, I see nothing compelling right now about shorting. This...
When trying to think of a title for this post, really the only word that came to mind was “destruction.” Although the market had already been going through stages of destruction for weeks, seen by looking further back at the Russel 2000, the energy sector, or even just how many individual stocks have been failing to […]
Last week was no doubt tough, but I felt that we actually managed pretty well. Definitely took some losses, but luckily made them up with some nice gains elsewhere. I am not in a rush to start putting swings on so next week I am going to look to play bounces and then see if there...
SPY: I am going to show you one look of the SPY open interest here and then a different look in the set-ups section for reasons you can read there. In terms of this look it’s not very telling except if we can bounce hard than we can try to anticipate a move back to...
If you haven’t had a chance to read my overall picture then read it here. Basically, I don’t feel confident that we definitely put in a good low just yet and am waiting for a few more signals. In the meantime there are really great long set-ups so if that was the low these set-ups...
Here’s the thing about these shallow V-shaped pullbacks hallmark of our market since the end of 2012 – everyone knows that they won’t last. As we potentially approach the eleventh straight vertical rally from a shallow pullback, the anticipation for the one that finally fails is once again heightened. I too fall victim to this anticipation and find […]
Looking at the overall open interest there really is no overall theme that can help clarify if we are indeed ready to take the market vertically higher or put in another low. Note: I am skipping PCLN as it has not been of much use recently. I will bring it back when and if it gains...
I don’t know if today’s candlestick hammer in the S&P 500 represents the low that will take us back to new highs, but it should come as no surprise if it does. If the market follows the protocol over the last two years then the odds are high that the low is in for now. Over […]
Every once in a while preparation meets luck and magic happens. Yesterday afternoon I tweeted this to my subscribers This morning per my thoughts above I was patient and waited to see if we flushed. I know I could have been wrong, but easier to be wrong while waiting patiently on the sidelines instead […]
R.I.P. To V-Bottoms – What’s Next?
In last weeks post, Destruction!!! What’s Next??? I noted that the V-bottoms we knew and have become accustomed to over the last two years might have been coming to an end. I also noted that there was strong evidence we would see a bounce, but that the bottom was likely not in. I clearly laid out […]
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