July, 2015
Set-ups & Weekly Commentary for 7/27/15
Going into last week I stated that there was limited upside due to the open interest and that turned out to be correct. I did not however think we would get all the way down to 207.5, but I did say that a break of 209 and that was the next likely target. Where I...
Open Interest for Expiration 7/31/15
Overall fantastic week even though it ended poorly. ‘You win some, you lose some’ works as long as we win more than we lose which we did :-). Next time I have huge gains like I have in the last two weeks I just got take a couple days off! Anyway, let’s get to next...
Surprise – The V is Back, but is it a Trap?
Last week here I wrote that my bias was up and there was a good chance SPY would find its way to the 210 level. I had not anticipated that it would continue higher when I originally wrote the post, but did update my views on twitter mid week. First, I cautioned any short attempts by […]
Setups and Commentary for 7/20/15
What an insanely busy and good week. Good feeling to be on the right side of the trade. Next week we still have big earnings, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the market will have some big moves. In fact, typically after a move similar to what we just got there is either some consolidation or...
Open Interest for Expiration 7/24/25
EPIC EPIC EPIC week! I had no idea we were going to put in a bounce like that last week, but good thing is I didn’t need to know to benefit. I had the direction right and that made all the difference. Let’s get right into next week. SPY: The open interest suggests that next week...
Bounce or Bottom? Next Week’s Game Plan
Last week here I discussed my bias being up and that if we were to get a dip below 205 it was a gift and to buy it. That turned out to be very sound advice even with all the volatility. About a month ago I warned of an impending small correction, which as you can see […]
Set-ups & Market Commentary for 7/13/15
I barely remember what my bias even was last week with all that ended up happening, but it turned out pretty great anyway. As I said last week I am not convinced the lows are in. I still think we could see another flush down, but we will get there when the time is right....
Open Interest for 7/17/15
Killer week we had. Honestly, there is no way I could have traded the way we did without knowing open interest. Let’s hope the volatility stays. Next week is monthly expiration and just as a reminder, the open interest changes less (if at all) during monthly expiration. Let’s hop right into next week. SPY: Here’s...
Open Interest for Expiration 7/10/15
The theme I outlined last week based on the open interest was bearish and that turned out to be correct. Most of it happened overnight and Monday so the rest of the week ended up being pretty slow. It was also a good demonstration of the importance of when to trade and when not to. Trading only...
Set-ups & Market Commentary for 7/6/15
Well I’ve been saying I was smelling a correction around the corner. Now we are in correction territory and navigating through it. There is no way to know how we will open Monday morning which is why I decided not to keep any SPY options over the weekend. With all the uncertainty over the weekend...
Will the Bears Cheer or Jeer Next Week?
For the last few weeks, I have been writing about a looming small correction. Last weekend here I was bearish biased and that turned out to be correct, but if you hadn’t come into Monday short it was definitely difficult to play. I would be surprised if the low for 2015 was in; however, my main […]
Bear Bear Go Away, Come Again Another Day?
Last week here I stated that the SPY open interest suggested “that the market will be rangebound next week, with very little room to move higher, but room to give back some of last weeks gains.” I also thought that shallow dips would be bought, but laid out a game plan in case that failed to […]
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