Great great week. We waited for the right opportunity and when it came the returns were huge. A great reminder that sitting out when the risk/reward isn’t great pays forward. I understand it is frustrating sitting out when you see people on twitter saying they made this much and they caught this bottom etc. However, I...
One of the most insane weeks in months, perhaps years. I was very clear last week that I was not in the camp of an imminent bounce and that was key. By remaining on the sidelines we were actually able to catch the main thrust of the bounce. Now the question becomes, is it a...
Last week here I discussed a more bullish bias with the caveat that there was one big strike at on the SPY open interest at 205 and price could get there or undercut it by a bit. I also said that it would be a great place to buy the dip. I was wrong and […]
Hands down bears won last week. The move lower is not over. Whether we flush first and then move higher or we bounce and then move lower is not something anyone can predict; however, we can and will play this volatility. There is no doubt the market is oversold, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the market...
Whoa! Didn’t see that coming. Open interest got smacked by the selling. The last time that happened on a monthly OPEX was October 2014 (which provided information that I carried forward into last week). On Thursday, after the failure of price to get back above 205 a second time, I stopped trying to catch the bounce....
Last week here I wrote: “I am still not convinced the market has bottomed, but overall my main bias for next week leans bullish” and gave a guide on SPY and what to expect (how to play it). Below is what I wrote: “Here is a guide for SPY next week: SPY below 208 and not able to […]
AMAZING WEEK!!!!! We nailed pretty much every market turn to the upside and downside AND had huge winners in individual stocks. Next week is monthly OPEX so most of the open interest will not change during the week. SPY: Overall this is a bullish open interest graph. Having said that there is not much put...
Superb week, which is wonderful and should be acknowledged, but now back to work so we can continue the streak. Monthly OPEX in general tends to be bullish, but that is not something I would base my analysis on. However, it’s helpful to know because it coincides with a bullish open interest. As I said in the...
Last week here I wrote “Taking the open interest at face value first suggests that price will continue to gravitate to the 210/211 level and second, suggests a more neutral to bearish week is upon us.” I also outlined several thorough scenarios of what to expect based on where price goes and if you go […]
Last week the game plan was right on point, but as you saw it was extremely difficult to trade and required lots of patience. This trading environment is so tricky and it’s teaching me/us the importance of sticking to the plan because they really do work. As I mentioned last week, I don’t think the bottom...
What a draining week. The open interest definitely nailed the outcome, but man did they make it so hard to hold those puts after that gap up Wednesday. It really does just reaffirm that it’s best to stick to the plan because more times than not it works and over time that averages to mostly...
Last week the open interest pointed to a bullish week with a potential target for SPY 210 and then 211. That worked, but it definitely wasn’t easy. Earnings are winding down now so the open interest for the momentum stocks will become more relevant again. Also, based on the decent high strikes of puts or...
It was correct to be bullish biased last week with a buy the dip mentality. It didn’t lead to a whole lot gains with such small movements and being too early, but so be it. In the open interest post I highlight that next week appears to have a neutral to bearish bias. As you...
Last week here I wrote that I am “still not convinced that the lows for the year were in and after last week am more convinced that they are not. Having said that, I do think the market will bounce first before moving lower.” That worked out well and my view has not changed. Having already bounced […]
Will the Bulls Charge Their Way to New Highs?
Last week here I stressed that oversold can stay oversold and that I believed the market had not bottomed. I laid out the bullish and bearish arguments and it was clear that the bearish ones had more going for them. I also drew some comparisons to the 2014 October correction as an exercise that steep […]
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