December, 2015
Open Interest for Expiration 12/31/15
Last week the VIX and SPY expiration led us the right way. Market bounced and then basically stalled the rest of the week. Also pretty much all the momentum stocks followed their open interest by not exceeding their high call or put strikes. That led to a great play with GS so with next week...
Set-ups and Game plan for week 12/28/15
Last week price got the bounce I mentioned due to being oversold and the VIX expiration, but price couldn’t rally much from there. Next week we know will be super slow so any opportunities we take are going to be for short-term plays. The year is almost over and there could be some funds readjusting....
12/23 Update
Market completely lame and choppy until the last 15 minutes when it appears Santa may be on his way. Currently futures moving higher as I write this and it seems as of now a good sign. For now I think we can continue to see rallying especially given everything I wrote this weekend. If that...
Did the Crazy Weather Prevent Santa From Flying in This Year?
Last week here I anticipated a likely bounce before the Fed to SPY 205. It overachieved that. I also highlighted the risk of a drop due to all the puts and delta hedging. In no way was last week easy to play and I missed a lot of it being on a trip and then […]
Set-ups and Game Plan for 12/21/15
Only two more weeks left. Remember next week is shortened so options should be cheaper (meaning don’t overpay as if it was a Monday), but you also have much less time for things to work. I outlined most of SPY in the overall market. Here is what it has going for it: Seasonality is strong...
Open Interest for Expiration 12/24/15
What a week! Granted I missed a lot of it (probably for the best), but we did go back up to the area around 205 by Fed, which I had anticipated well. The events after FOMC were a whole another story. I imagine it was a very tough week for anyone there the entire week,...
Open Interest for Expiration 12/18/15
What a nasty week!! The two best things I did all week was sell 3/4 of my CMG puts Monday morning and tell us (me and you guys) to keep everything small till the FOMC. Next week is Quad witching, but more important is obviously FOMC. In case you missed it, I will not be trading or...
Market Countdown to FOMC
Last week here I said the path of least resistance was higher, but not to be too ambitious about how far it can go. I also tweeted out several times to “curb your enthusiasm on any rallies.” Indeed the market did go higher to hit exactly 211, but was met with a swift rejection. The […]
Open Interest for Expiration 12/11/15
Open interest seriously told the story last week. It could not have been more accurate. Of course it’s hard to know which direction comes first, but it definitely gave opportunities (too many that I missed!). I don’t know if next week will be more of the same, but it will be likely for many of...
Set-ups and Game Plan for 12/7/15
There was nothing easy about last week, but we played it pretty well given the high volatility (some of you better than me from my alerts – ahem’QQQ :-)). And we are going to have an awesome Monday morning thanks to CMG (I did say they would have to guide down – didn’t realize it would...
A Year to Forget & Probably a Week to Forget as Well
Last week here I mentioned the positives and negatives demonstrating that there was better chances of a bounce early in the week due to seasonality, oversold conditions, and the VIX expiration on Wednesday morning. I posted the open interest to show that the upside could be limited by the high calls at 206. The week pretty […]
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