Fun times. Definitely a very challenging environment; but rising to the occasion can be very profitable. As of now the path of least resistance seems higher (with the caveat that next week must have follow through). I don’t believe a bull market is resuming. Thus, although we will concentrate on longs, I will be sure...
Crazy week, challenging week, overall profitable week! There is not much I have to say below as I said most of it in the open interest section. Right now we assume higher as long as we see follow through with price and breadth. SPX levels of resistance: 1944, 1950, 1960, 1984. A pullback to 1924...
Last week I titled my post Why Friday Afternoon Was a Good Time to Buy and Pyschology. I’m pretty sure that title nailed it as Friday was a good time to buy (at least for the gap up and then the end of the week), but you definitely needed to check your emotions in order to survive […]
What we learned to rely on during the bullish trend is over. We really do need to reset our minds to focus on selling stocks into resistance and during counter trend rallies not getting too bullish. I understand people are excited about the current rally and it’s potential, but all it is right now is a...
Most of us love the markets cause we like a good challenge. The market is not letting us down in that sense. Getting long last Friday was the correct play, but profits had to be taken quick because the selling definitely wasn’t done. After getting back bearish we then had to switch again. The good news...
Last week here I was very clear that our market was no longer one you blindly buy the dip into, that the rules have changed, and that to survive you would need to adapt pronto. I further went on to describe that we were likely trading in a bear market, which I had also suggested and wrote […]
Last week did some serious damage to the market and probably to many psyche’s. I know a lot of people got very hurt and I am super grateful that I was able to figure out what was going on and be on the correct side. This market is anything buy easy. The volatility is great...
In my opinion we nailed last week. In one of the largest drawdowns in this bull market we were 1) on the correct side and 2) didn’t get trapped into buying every dip. That to me is a win. I know for a fact that had we been playing the buy the dip game all week...
Last week here I discussed the possibility of a buying opportunity as things were getting close to oversold and the open interest favored buying the dip. BOY WAS I WRONG! After things started to really deteriorate Tuesday I started to wake up to the fact that this wasn’t the normal get a bit over sold […]
Stocks drop for 5 days straight, Happy New Year folks!!!! LOL. I was definitely on the wrong side at the start of the week with a BTD mentality. Luckily I saw the light quickly and adapted. When so much of the open interest is not working, it’s always a big clue. As I said last...
It’s been quite the week. I’m pretty sure nobody (including myself) expected that type of start to the year. Regardless, as traders it doesn’t really matter as long as we can align ourselves with the correct side, which we did mid-week. Although the market is oversold based on what oversold has looked like for the last few...
New year, new trends, new opportunities. Of course the market is just going to continue from where it left off, but since we measure trends and out-performers (i.e. NFLX, AMZN) /under-performers (i.e. anything energy related) often by years, we will begin to see new ones emerge. What comes to mind in that sense is opportunity! […]
Very nice end to a very challenging year. With a new year will come new trends and out-perfomers/under-performers, but they will likely take a little time to develop. In that sense, whatever happens next week may not necessarily be the gauge to the rest of the year. Although most people will be back at their...
Welcome to 2016! 2015 ended essentially flat and I am happy to be moving on from it and hope we soon start to trend again. New year, new opportunities, and hopefully new trading environment. Let’s get right into it. SPY: On the surface this is bullish and once again we start the week with the...
Was Friday’s Bullish Candle a Trap?
Last week here I laid out my thesis for why I was more bullish biased and the importance of 1887. Ironically, even with my bullish bias, I pretty much benefitted more from shorting the first few days of the week and didn’t get long till Thursday. It just goes to show that as much as I […]
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