Overall I believe that March has more upside to it; however the timing is where it gets tricky. Next week the more favorable scenario is for price to either consolidate below 1950 or even better pullback to the 1900 level or even slightly below. Should price hold above 1960 then their exists a high probability that...
Closing the week pretty much flat really seemed like the best way to go. Anything other than that just seemed like guessing to me. SPX got to a 20-day high last week and currently the bulls do have the edge despite the Friday close. There are tons of support levels below, namely 1942 (Friday’s close), 1930...
Last week here I showed how split traders were as to what was next (not surprising), but offered levels to watch to help dictate your week. I said “A gap open over 1865 that is not filled would increase the odds of a continued rally.” That coupled with the SPY open interest having heavy 190 puts […]
That gap up Monday morning combined with the SPY open interest was enough to let us know the market was probably not going back down and would close over 190 by Friday. It’s still a very split market with not all stocks rallying when the market does, which makes sense given the market is still in...
Next week has a neutral bias to it that includes both a little lower and higher. We know where the market is going to find heavy resistance because of the open interest, but we don’t know how it will play out. There are some clues that I will point out below, but for the most...
As I said in the open interest post, there is no consensus on how the market may open Tuesday. A gap down, would certainly be bearish, whereas a gap up isn’t necessarily bullish unless it can hold and follow through. Recall just a couple weeks ago Friday closed on the highs and the then Monday’s...
I took a poll on Twitter asking do we open higher or lower on Tuesday. The results were exactly split 50/50. What does this tell us? No one has a clue. What’s interesting is last week, despite the insane moves, lots of things ended up pinning. I’ve noticed that pinning tends to work when the...
Last week I titled my post Was Friday’s Bullish Candle a Trap? I was of course referring to the huge rally on Friday 1/29. Now we know the answer. Yes, it obviously was because the only day that went higher last week was Monday. From there on the market took back all of 1/29 gains […]
I don’t even know how to recap the week. It was all over the place, but of course, in general is was once again bearish – the 2016 theme so far. For the most part the momo stocks had been holding up fairly well given the rest of the market, but no longer. Last week...
I’m still in awe of how much LNKD fell on Friday. This is a huge message to traders, especially ones that trade the big momentum names. It’s time to sell all rips. Quality stocks (the more boring ones) and some sector rotation ones can be bought on dips and the growth ones are to be...
Perhaps a Stall, but Edge Lies with the Bulls
Last week here I discussed that bulls had the edge, but that neither bulls or bears should get too enthusiastic about breakouts/breakdowns. That was the case up until Thursday, where SPY was set to break the 194 level for a third time. At that point shorting the rip was no longer appealing and instead going with […]
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