Volatility is back – at least for the time being. We knew at the start of the week that there was SPY 210 and 215 high calls. The 210’s never closed and last week SPY got close but was never able to even make it above 210. Even though we knew that was a possibliity, last...
As I said last week, it’s time to begin thinking about selling the rip and not just buying. Even though I had that written and had it in mind, it was much harder to do last week given all the disconnects (well isn’t it always harder then it would seem?). Now that we are entering...
This was one of two premium posts for members posted before week starting 4/25/16 It was a very disconnected week which made picking the right trades challenging. All three days, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday were fake-outs if you will. Luckily we remained level headed and watched the internals. Even though that is what made things confusing, […]
This was one of two premium posts for members posted before week starting 4/25/16 Once again as extreme as it may seem the lack of selling pressure continues to support the bull thesis and thus buying the dip is more attractive then shorting. With that being said, last week at least brought in some selling […]
Last week here I made the case for higher prices, but that they would likely either be slow or hampered. Indeed prices rose, but then were hampered. The week was no doubt challenging as there were may disconnects that began Wednesday and went on through the rest of the week. Over TWTR and Stocktwits on Wednesday […]
It was a very disconnected week which made picking the right trades challenging. All three days, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday were fake-outs if you will. Luckily we remained level headed and watched the internals. Even though that is what made things confusing, it saved us from trying to get short. As I mentioned over and over...
Once again as extreme as it may seem the lack of selling pressure continues to support the bull thesis and thus buying the dip is more attractive then shorting. With that being said, last week at least brought in some selling in individual sectors and momentum stocks that suggest cracks are beginning to show up....
This was one of two premium posts for members posted before week starting 4/18/16 Two weeks in a row the market gave us good opportunity in the beginning of the week, which we took advantage of, and then just sucked premium the rest of it. There is no denying that there is a lack of […]
This was one of two premium posts for members posted before week starting 4/18/16 I have two examples of why the market is strong and why for now buying the dip needs to be more prevalent on our minds than shorting. Last week many of the momo stocks and some ETF’s that I casually watch […]
In last weeks post here, the main take away was that there would likely be a break of either SPX 2040 or 2070, but that neither would likely lead to a large move. I also mentioned some breadth divergences that were beginning to creep in, but were not yet at a point that shorting was encouraged. As […]
I have two examples of why the market is strong and why for now buying the dip needs to be more prevalent on our minds than shorting. Last week many of the momo stocks and some ETF’s that I casually watch got to their high strike calls. Meaning the price slammed right into or went...
Two weeks in a row the market gave us good opportunity in the beginning of the week, which we took advantage of, and then just sucked premium the rest of it. There is no denying that there is a lack of any significant selling pressure right now (more on that in the set-up post) and...
This was one of two premium posts for members posted before week starting 4/11/16 The market has basically been in a range of 2040 to 2070 for two weeks. You could say it’s consolidating gains and creating a bull flag, but for now (and in the short term) I am leaning more bearish than bullish. […]
This was one of two premium posts for members posted before week starting 4/11/16 Well the weak wasn’t as calm as I expected even though it basically closed in the same place as it did on Tuesday. I can’t argue that there was lots of movement to be played though. Next week is monthly OPEX […]
From Convergex: Looking at every time average sector correlations have dropped below 70% – 6 times in total since the beginning of 2010 – the average one month forward return is 0.6%. While that is lower than the 0.9% averaged compounded monthly return since the start of the period, the volatility of returns ranges from a […]
The market has basically been in a range of 2040 to 2070 for two weeks. You could say it’s consolidating gains and creating a bull flag, but for now (and in the short term) I am leaning more bearish than bullish. The low of last week was 2033 so that is basically the short term...
Well the weak wasn’t as calm as I expected even though it basically closed in the same place as it did on Tuesday. I can’t argue that there was lots of movement to be played though. Next week is monthly OPEX and usually the open interest doesn’t shift as much as it does for weeklies,...
This was one of two premium posts for members posted before week starting 4/4/16 Awesome week! For now the bulls are still in charge, but at this point there is likely to be limited upside before either a pullback or consolidation. Earnings are just around the corner and until they get underway, dips will very […]
This was one of two premium posts for members posted before week starting 4/4/16 Last week SPX remained above 2022, the level I said kept the ball in the bull court. Once price got over 2055 we knew that the bulls took price from neutral/bullish to bullish. There is still room higher before larger resistance […]
Last week here I laid out the case for the bulls, again (seems crazy to me too). I also talked about the possibility of a performance chase into the quarters end. In other words, I made it pretty clear that as long as SPX remained above 2022 to be a buyer. The bulls indeed still […]
Awesome week! For now the bulls are still in charge, but at this point there is likely to be limited upside before either a pullback or consolidation. Earnings are just around the corner and until they get underway, dips will very likely be buyable. Let’s get straight into the open interest. General note for the...
Last week SPX remained above 2022, the level I said kept the ball in the bull court. Once price got over 2055 we knew that the bulls took price from neutral/bullish to bullish. There is still room higher before larger resistance steps in, but any further highs next week will likely be muted. The first...
This was one of two premium posts for members posted before week starting 3/28/16. One of the hardest things to do as an options trader is not chase breakups that technically look great. Often traders concentrate just on making money and forget that not losing money is more important to survival; and as we know, […]
This was one of two premium posts for members posted before week starting 3/28/16. Good week given the opportunities that we were actually given. One important take away is how patience was rewarded. The start to the week I kept preaching not to chase. Options are not friendly to a still market and especially one […]
Mayday! Mayday! Or Just May?
Last week here, I discussed the bulls having the edge, but that any edge they had would likely be limited and possibly given back at the end of the week (I mentioned to look for clues in the SPY open interest). I also mentioned possible rotation into the QQQ’s. I was right about the former […]
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