I really can’t remember the last time I had such a variety of short and long trades and many working at the same time. It’s more proof that the market is not being carried by the majority of stocks and I still do believe the bottom is not in. Next week is quarter end and...
Last week here I wrote that the bottom was unlikely in and that for the time being bounces should be sold. The market did go lower, but I wouldn’t necessarily say it bottomed. Regarding bounces being sold, that worked, but buying dips would have worked just as well. It was a choppy week and on […]
It seems that volatility is finally back. Quad witching, which tends to bring some volatility with it, is over, but there is still the Fed meeting on Wednesday. At this point and on a very short term basis (a few days) I am leaning bullish. However, looking out further, I think this market has not...
Last week here (and for several weeks) I discussed some breadth divergences that are unfortunately not a timing tool, but a caution sign. More importantly I discussed the risks of so many expirations and analysed both the Wednesday and Friday SPY expiration. Wednesday (the first ever SPY Wednesday expiration) did not disappoint and pinned almost perfectly. Friday on […]
Finally some movement. Or actually, some HUGE movement very similar to what I was talking about all week over and over again. At the start of the week I mentioned that it was the weak before quad witching and that historically, it brings weakness around it either before or after. That coupled with my reluctance to get too long...
Another week goes by and another week where SPX closed in range. Next week is a four day week and likely the start to more trading volume and hopefully, but not necessarily, some range expansion. For the most part its very hard to make the case for bulls or bears on a short time horizon. Longer...
Last week I was taking in the last bit of summer so let’s get right into next week. Breadth: The two potential themes I am seeing are 1) some signs that could be considered the market being short term oversold and 2) some caution signs of underneath deterioration. A quick recovery of breadth and expansion likely […]
Going Against the Grain
In case you missed it, I had the privilege of being a guest to Anthony Crudele’s futures radio show. Tune in here. Last week here I went through reasons why I did not think the lows were in, but highlighted that the market will often rally into and after the FOMC meeting. My thoughts were […]
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