General Market Commentary

Will the Open Interest Stall the Uptrend Next Week?

Two weeks ago here I discussed the likelihood of news highs. That indeed came the following week and then continued on into last week. At this point there is no reason not to expect another new high to be made as the edge continues to reside with the bulls. Open Interest: I have pointed out […]

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Possible New High Targets Seen in the Open Interest

Last week here I went into length about reasons to be concerned with the long side (especially for last week because of the open interest), but pointed out that the overall trend remained bullish. I also described two separate breadth studies that concluded a pullback would likely be short-lived. In the end a gap down Monday morning […]

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Something for the Bears to Chew on

Last week here the title of my post said it all: The Trend Still Supports Bulls as Does the Open Interest. The roughly month in a half range finally broke to the upside and at the present moment bulls clearly have the edge. With that said, there are some concerns going into next week that could jeopardize […]

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Trend Still Supports Bulls as Does Next Weeks Open Interest

Last week here I conveyed that the path of least resistance was higher and explained why what looked like the best pin of 220 on SPY was unlikely to happen (refer back to read understand why). During the week I updated the open interest over twitter which further supported that price would likely stay above 225. (“interest” […]

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The First OPEX of 2017

Last week here I didn’t have much insight based on the open interest and instead just described the market as showing no evidence of being bearish. During the week the open interest changed and I posted updates over twitter that were indeed helpful, especially Wednesday’s. Wednesday morning I showed there was a large 226 put strike […]

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The Open Interest Paradox and Next Week

Happy New Year and happy all time highs! So far 2017 has begun with a bang and the major indexes are at all time highs (or close to them). Simply put this is bullish. About a month ago I showed a study related to 52 week highs minus lows shown below. Two weeks ago here I described […]

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A Farewell to 2016

Last week here I summarized my post with: “the most likely outcome is another few days to weak of tight rangebound consolidation that may (but doesn’t have to) include further minor (but buyable) weakness followed by strength.”  The rangebound part happened and I will lay out where my thinking was regarding “the followed by strength,” and why […]

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A Further Pre-Holiday Consolidation

It’s been a while since I’ve done a post. Most of you know I was traveling through SouthEast Asia (an amazing trip) and then right when I got back had to head to Los Angeles because of my grandfather’s passing (sad yes, but at least he lived to 90). Thanks for all the comments via […]

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Did Trump Make BTFD Great Again?

Last week here I discussed that the environment still looked more favorable to selling rips then buying dips, but that the election was a wild card. I went further to say that if there was a large rally to watch the overall breadth to determine the strength of the rally and if it would likely continue […]

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Will the Election Turn the Markets Frown Upside Down?

Last week here I continued to provide evidence in support of the bearish case and suggested to sell all rallies. That worked every day last week as every rally failed. So where are we now? Below I will present the facts of breadth and the open interest with the caveat that the election is next week […]

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Sell the Rips

Last weekend I took off and keeping this short because there really isn’t anything new to say, but here we go. The theme is sell rallies. Since the market has not been able to break we should all be open to the possibility of improvements underneath the surface, especially since we are entering a seasonly […]

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Evidence Points to Lower, but then there was OPEX

Last week here I discussed having to be neutral due to the impenetrable range, but described myself as having a bearish lean due to many red flags that I outlined in the post. I also discussed the SPY 212 area that had both a lot of put support and technical support. The range finally did break, but […]

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The Unyielding (pun intended) Calm Before the Storm

A double entendre, other words for unyielding according to theasauas.com are adamant, merciless, relentless, unrelenting, etc. (See more than just a finance blog) Last week here I discussed cracks in the market that were keeping me bearish, but with an open mind due to the improvements in breadth. In the end, the market kept flat and […]

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New Month! New Quarter! New Range?

If you missed my interview with the Futures Radio Show, please check it out here, where Anthony and I discuss options, psychology, and current markets.  Last week here I discussed a more bearish thesis looking out a couple weeks with the idea to sell into rips. I also pointed out that due to the end […]

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Going Against the Grain

In case you missed it, I had the privilege of being a guest to Anthony Crudele’s futures radio show. Tune in here. Last week here I went through reasons why I did not think the lows were in, but highlighted that the market will often rally into and after the FOMC meeting. My thoughts were […]

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A Tale of Two Indices – One with an Obvious Divergence

Last week here I wrote that the bottom was unlikely in and that for the time being bounces should be sold. The market did go lower, but I wouldn’t necessarily say it bottomed. Regarding bounces being sold, that worked, but buying dips would have worked just as well. It was a choppy week and on […]

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Quad Witching Time

Last week here (and for several weeks) I discussed some breadth divergences that are unfortunately not a timing tool, but a caution sign. More importantly I discussed the risks of so many expirations and analysed both the Wednesday and Friday SPY expiration. Wednesday (the first ever SPY Wednesday expiration) did not disappoint and pinned almost perfectly. Friday on […]

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The New 2x Expirations for SPY + Breadth

Last week I was taking in the last bit of summer so let’s get right into next week. Breadth: The two potential themes I am seeing are 1) some signs that could be considered the market being short term oversold and 2) some caution signs of underneath deterioration. A quick recovery of breadth and expansion likely […]

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Volatility or Rotation & Grind

Last week here I had little to say except that SPY would very likely not close over 220 and that as long as SPY remained above 217, it would be difficult to make a bearish case. The low last week was 217.02, the high 219.50. Perfect range for any short term bulls and bears to go crazy […]

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It’s OPEX Time!

Last week here I summed things up with: In sum: The market strength on Friday is likely to lead to new highs being made; however be aware at the limitations the current breakout has in the near term. Should SPX fall before making a higher high next week, technical support levels will likely be quickly […]

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A One Way Road to What Price?

Last week here I said that there was likely a new high coming, but that gains would likely be limited to 218 SPY. I also said that if SPY dips below 215, it was likely be a buy. There was a new high, there was a pullback below 215 that turned out to be a […]

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A Rumbling Below the Surface

Last week in a post titled Reasonable Expectations I wrote: In sum, I wish I had something more impressive to say, but I’m not going to spend time trying to find something that makes me sound smart. The upside seems limited, but trying to time a short without a signal isn’t attractive. Thus for short term traders, […]

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Reasonable Expectations

Last week here I wrote that the longer term trend was higher, but that there would likely be a pause, chop, and a grinding lower. I was right about all of it except that latter part as there really wasn’t much grinding lower. In fact BEFD (Buy Every F’N Dip) has not let up at […]

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Time to Reset

The last two weeks I made it pretty clear to Buy Every F’n Dip (BEFD). Unfortunately for those not well positioned there wasn’t much of a dip to take advantage of. Here is last weeks post. The easy part (for the time being) is likely over. Looking out several weeks though, the market looks set […]

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Keep on the B-E-F-D Train

Last week here I made it pretty clear that my premise was to buy every dip. I actually didn’t think the market would pullback as much as it did, but for those that were buying it was a gift. Next week is monthly OPEX and at the moment SPX has nothing to contend with except […]

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Remember B-E-F-D? Brexit was the Bust Before the Thrust

Last week here I discussed that the market had lower to go, but was in a good position to begin looking for signs of a swing long. First, I admittedly had no idea that swing would come Monday. I highlighted that the market was short term oversold and likely had a bounce coming, but a swing […]

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More Downside to Come

I’m back. Thanks for all the congratulatory comments while I was away. This will be a short to the point. For much more relevant information take the premium plunge. If you recall a month or two ago I repeatedly wrote in my posts that the market never reached an oversold reading that is typical of […]

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June Swoon or to the Moon

Last week here I took a spin on BTFD and termed BEFD (buy every f’n dip). Is there a difference? Probably not, but I was trying to emphasize that if the market dips, but stays above 2084, it will probably rip back up. That happened 4 our of 4 times last week. At this point […]

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B-E-F-D Until Bulls Fumble

Buy-Every-F*****g-Dip Last week here I proposed that the chop would likely continue and that any gains that came before better oversold readings would likely not hold. The caveat was if we closed and had follow through over 2084. As you know the premise was wrong and the exception instead came into fruition – which hopefully […]

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It’s That Time Again: Welcome to OPEX Week

Last week here I discussed that the market likely has not seen the lows of this cycle and any news gains would likely be given back. I am still in that camp. I also said that a close above 2083 would make things more bullish. What I should have said is a close with follow […]

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Did Friday’s Reversal Give the All Clear?

Apologies ahead of time, but this post will be brief due to my best friends birthday and Mothers Day. Last week here I said that if Friday (4/29) was a reversal and the market traded higher, it would likely be given back and that below 2052 opened the door to more selling. I also highlighted support […]

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Mayday! Mayday! Or Just May?

Last week here, I discussed the bulls having the edge, but that any edge they had would likely be limited and possibly given back at the end of the week (I mentioned to look for clues in the SPY open interest). I also mentioned possible rotation into the QQQ’s. I was right about the former […]

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Can QQQ’s Get Some Love? And What’s with the 215 SPY Calls?

Last week here I made the case for higher prices, but that they would likely either be slow or hampered. Indeed prices rose, but then were hampered. The week was no doubt challenging as there were may disconnects that began Wednesday and went on through the rest of the week. Over TWTR and Stocktwits on Wednesday […]

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Is the high SPY 210 Call Strike Meaningful?

In last weeks post here, the main take away was that there would likely be a break of either SPX 2040 or 2070, but that neither would likely lead to a large move. I also mentioned some breadth divergences that were beginning to creep in, but were not yet at a point that shorting was encouraged. As […]

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Choppy Waters Ahead

From Convergex: Looking at every time average sector correlations have dropped below 70% – 6 times in total since the beginning of 2010 – the average one month forward return is 0.6%.  While that is lower than the 0.9% averaged compounded monthly return since the start of the period, the volatility of returns ranges from a […]

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A Calm Week Ahead

Last week here I laid out the case for the bulls, again (seems crazy to me too). I also talked about the possibility of a performance chase into the quarters end. In other words, I made it pretty clear that as long as SPX remained above 2022 to be a buyer. The bulls indeed still […]

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Performance Chase?

Last week here, I outlined reasons why there was likely more downside than upside to be had last week. In the end, there wasn’t as much downside as I had anticipated, but anyone that chased what looked like a breakout early in the week likely ended the week in disappointment. From last week: “In sum, based on the […]

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Time for Some Bear Love

Last week here I clearly laid out a bullish scenario backed by solid reasoning. I summed up my thoughts with this: In sum, current breadth and the weekly MACD cross suggest further upside next week. Given the market is overbought it may pause or slightly pull-back, but the evidence at hand supports buying a dip or consolidation. With […]

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The Bulls Set for a Further Run Next Week?

Last week here I made the case for the bulls and summed up my post with this “In sum, the expansion in breadth with price supports further upside over the next few weeks and suggests taking on a buy the dip mentality. However, the current overbought levels and technical resistance may lead to a pullback or […]

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What are Market Internals Hinting at?

Last week here I showed why bulls were in charge and described that there could be a pullback in the short term (that should be bought), but that if price got over SPY 197 then shorting should be avoided and price would likely see 200 very quickly. The exception ended up the rule last week. […]

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Perhaps a Stall, but Edge Lies with the Bulls

Last week here I discussed that bulls had the edge, but that neither bulls or bears should get too enthusiastic about breakouts/breakdowns. That was the case up until Thursday, where SPY was set to break the 194 level for a third time. At that point shorting the rip was no longer appealing and instead going with […]

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Whether a Bull or a Bear, Curb that Enthusiasm Next Week

Last week here I showed how split traders were as to what was next (not surprising), but offered levels to watch to help dictate your week. I said “A gap open over 1865 that is not filled would increase the odds of a continued rally.” That coupled with the SPY open interest having heavy 190 puts […]

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No One Has a Clue, but for Next Week Know This…

Last week here I wrote “For next week, if SPX stays below 1872, then assume all bounces should be sold and price is likely headed to 1850, and then near or below 1812.” Furthermore, I posted the open interest for SPY which suggested a close over 185 by Friday. Somehow, both things worked out even though […]

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Is there any Silver Lining for Next Week?

Last week I titled my post Was Friday’s Bullish Candle a Trap? I was of course referring to the huge rally on Friday 1/29. Now we know the answer. Yes, it obviously was because the only day that went higher last week was Monday. From there on the market took back all of 1/29 gains […]

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Was Friday’s Bullish Candle a Trap?

Last week here I laid out my thesis for why I was more bullish biased and the importance of 1887. Ironically, even with my bullish bias, I pretty much benefitted more from shorting the first few days of the week and didn’t get long till Thursday. It just goes to show that as much as I […]

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Countertrend Rally or Muted Bounce?

Last week I titled my post Why Friday Afternoon Was a Good Time to Buy and Pyschology. I’m pretty sure that title nailed it as Friday was a good time to buy (at least for the gap up and then the end of the week), but you definitely needed to check your emotions in order to survive […]

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Why Friday Afternoon Was a Good Time to Buy & Psychology

Last week here I was very clear that our market was no longer one you blindly buy the dip into, that the rules have changed, and that to survive you would need to adapt pronto. I further went on to describe that we were likely trading in a bear market, which I had also suggested and wrote […]

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The Bears Have Awoken and Have Spoken

Last week here I discussed the possibility of a buying opportunity as things were getting close to oversold and the open interest favored buying the dip. BOY WAS I WRONG! After things started to really deteriorate Tuesday I started to wake up to the fact that this wasn’t the normal get a bit over sold […]

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A New Year & New Trends, But Maybe Not Yet

New year, new trends, new opportunities. Of course the market is just going to continue from where it left off, but since we measure trends and out-performers (i.e. NFLX, AMZN) /under-performers (i.e. anything energy related) often by years, we will begin to see new ones emerge. What comes to mind in that sense is opportunity! […]

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A Year to Forget & Probably a Week to Forget as Well

Last week here I mentioned the positives and negatives demonstrating that there was better chances of a bounce early in the week due to seasonality, oversold conditions, and the VIX expiration on Wednesday morning. I posted the open interest to show that the upside could be limited by the high calls at 206. The week pretty […]

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Did the Crazy Weather Prevent Santa From Flying in This Year?

Last week here I anticipated a likely bounce before the Fed to SPY 205. It overachieved that. I also highlighted the risk of a drop due to all the puts and delta hedging. In no way was last week easy to play and I missed a lot of it being on a trip and then […]

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Important Lessons From Last Week – Delta Hedging & Options

Last week was a good example of what can happen when price begins to fall through heavy put strikes and something that short term traders should be aware of even if they don’t trade options. Last week here, I posted the open interest for the start of the week which had a more bullish look […]

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The Countdown is Finally Over

Last week here, I was bullish biased thinking the market wouldn’t do too much as it waited for the Fed, but that it would at least hold up due to all the puts that had potential to act as support. Instead price struggled from the start of the week to push over the puts and […]

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Market Countdown to FOMC

Last week here I said the path of least resistance was higher, but not to be too ambitious about how far it can go. I also tweeted out several times to “curb your enthusiasm on any rallies.” Indeed the market did go higher to hit exactly 211, but was met with a swift rejection. The […]

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Is the Path of Least Resistance too Ambitious?

Last week here instead of just writing about what I expected from the market as a whole (since my expectations were of mostly a grind) I gave some stock ideas. All of the ones that triggered except for one reached at least its initial target (with room for more) and one is still on its […]

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A Thanksgiving of Momentum?

Last week here I was definitely leaning bearish and boy was I wrong. After the Monday afternoon strength I reassessed the evidence and flipped bullish by Tuesday morning. Not only was price invalidating my bearish thesis, but so was psychology as you can see with my comments to subscribers below. From there on, the week […]

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The Times They Are a-Changin’

Last week here I was neutral short term, but expecting pullbacks to be bought. Here is what I wrote: Main view for next week: I’m neutral as to whether we move higher, consolidate sideways or pull back. You may not find that helpful, but I’m not going to lie and tell you I have a strong […]

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Did Wall Street or Spain Term the Phrase Running of the Bulls?

Just kidding, I know the answer. Last week here, I was bullish overall, but biased for a minor pullback. However, I wrote “Although I am biased toward a minor pullback ensuing next week I am open to the possibility that it won’t take place. What would change my mind is a further rally above Friday’s high with internal […]

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Will the Bears Make Their Move in November?

Last week here, I put forth another case for the bulls after already being a bull for three straight weeks. That of course worked out very well. Last week I also made it very clear here and several times on twitter, that a weekly MACD cross has resulted in a higher close the following week 10 out […]

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Surprise: A Christmas (Hanukkah) in October

Last week here (and for the last 3 weeks), I very clearly laid out a more bullish bias. Furthermore, I highlighted possible weakness Tuesday into Wednesday, but tweeted out during that weakness “but don’t forget to buy the dip.” I appreciate that so many followers of mine find my work helpful and want to know […]

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Up Up and …….

Last week here I outlined a bullish thesis and recommended getting long on dips at specific levels that were outlined. Then on Wednesday when SPX pulled back to 1995 I tweeted out this: It turned out that was indeed very good support and longs initiated there were handsomely rewarded. As a side note, I want new traders (or […]

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Running of the Bulls

Last week here, I laid out a compelling bullish case for the week and targeted the 200-201 SPY area. I said from there it was likely to stall and even more likely to pull-back. Stall it did, pull-back it did not. If you had the direction of the market correct last week, the opportunities were […]

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Taylor Swift Asks, ‘Are we out of the Woods?’

Last week here I outlined a more bullish thesis and showed two separate open interest graphs for SPY, the quarterly and the weekly. The main theses was we would close above 192 on Wednesday (check), and that the best pin on Friday would be 195 (check). The path to getting  those was surely not smooth or […]

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One Last Hurrah or Sayonara?

Last week here I was more biased to the upside as long as SPY stayed above 195. Well it failed to stay above there and I tweeted an updated open interest that looked much less bullish, suggesting that 190 would be the next support. Buying a little ahead of that on Thursday proved to be […]

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A Bounce Potential Early Next Week?

Last week here, I discussed my bullish bias and that if SPY remained above 195 there was a good chance we would get to at least 200. That worked out perfectly as SPY hit 200 on Wednesday. I tweeted out Wednesday that my target had been hit and I had no expectations going into the […]

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Quad Witching, S&P Roll Over, & FOMC Oh My!

Last week here I showed the enormous amount of puts from 193 and below. I discussed how that is typically a bullish sign, but hard to trust in the recent environment. Then on Tuesday morning I tweeted an update that showed a bunch of calls from 200 on. In the end SPY pinned in between them […]

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Will Put Holders be Rewarded This Week?

Last week here I went over the 2011 period, not as an analogue, but to demonstrate an outcome other than the V-bottoms we have become accustomed to. If you haven’t read it, I recommend that you take a look as there are many similarities between the 2011 correction and this current one. Again I don’t […]

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Will the Bulls Charge Their Way to New Highs?

Last week here I stressed that oversold can stay oversold and that I believed the market had not bottomed. I laid out the bullish and bearish arguments and it was clear that the bearish ones had more going for them. I also drew some comparisons to the 2014 October correction as an exercise that steep […]

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Buy the dip or Sell the Rip?

Last week here I discussed a more bullish bias with the caveat that there was one big strike at on the SPY open interest at 205 and price could get there or undercut it by a bit. I also said that it would be a great place to buy the dip. I was wrong and […]

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OPEX and One Strike Domination

Last week here I wrote: “I am still not convinced the market has bottomed, but overall my main bias for next week leans bullish” and gave a guide on SPY and what to expect (how to play it). Below is what I wrote: “Here is a guide for SPY next week: SPY below 208 and not able to […]

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What Goes Up Must Come Down – So Opposite True Right?

Last week here I wrote “Taking the open interest at face value first suggests that price will continue to gravitate to the 210/211 level and second, suggests a more neutral to bearish week is upon us.” I also outlined several thorough scenarios of what to expect based on where price goes and if you go […]

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Are Bulls for Real or Will a Bear Appear?

Last week here I wrote that I am  “still not convinced that the lows for the year were in and after last week am more convinced that they are not. Having said that, I do think the market will bounce first before moving lower.” That worked out well and my view has not changed. Having already bounced […]

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Bear Bear Go Away, Come Again Another Day?

Last week here I stated that the SPY open interest suggested “that the market will be rangebound next week, with very little room to move higher, but room to give back some of last weeks gains.” I also thought that shallow dips would be bought, but laid out a game plan in case that failed to […]

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Surprise – The V is Back, but is it a Trap?

Last week here I wrote that my bias was up and there was a good chance SPY would find its way to the 210 level. I had not anticipated that it would continue higher when I originally wrote the post, but did update my views on twitter mid week. First, I cautioned any short attempts by […]

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Bounce or Bottom? Next Week’s Game Plan

Last week here I discussed my bias being up and that if we were to get a dip below 205 it was a gift and to buy it. That turned out to be very sound advice even with all the volatility. About a month ago I warned of an impending small correction, which as you can see […]

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Will the Bears Cheer or Jeer Next Week?

For the last few weeks, I have been writing about a looming small correction. Last weekend here I was bearish biased and that turned out to be correct, but if you hadn’t come into Monday short it was definitely difficult to play. I would be surprised if the low for 2015 was in; however, my main […]

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Will Bears Finally Catch a Break?

Last weekend here I was biased toward a bounce, but after further weakness.  That plan was shattered right from the get-go with a gap up Monday morning. Knowing I was wrong had me quickly adjust my expectations and for the most part sit on my hands. With all the Greek news, potential for window dressing, as well […]

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Breakout, Fake-out, or Something Else?

Last week here I wrote that I expected a dip toward the beginning of the week and that it was a buy for a rip into the end of the week. I also stated that I thought come Friday or Monday we would begin to sell off again which would start a larger correction (more […]

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June Swoon, but First…..

Last week here I outlined levels of importance and what to expect based on those levels. That worked out perfectly. I said below SPY 209.5 odds increase of a touch to 207 (check). Then I said above 210 and good chance we see 212 (check). Then I said that we could easily keep gravitating to 210 all […]

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One Perspective on the Market for Next Week

Last week here, I wrote the importance of the 210 level, which did hold during the first dip of the week. Later in the week I updated the open interest over twitter and said that 209 was becoming more relevant and in fact price reached a low of 208.98 and held. We are now back in […]

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Next Week Determines it All

It’s sarcasm, calm down. I couldn’t think of (and wasn’t interested) in trying to be creative for my title this week. Anyway, as there isn’t much new to report I will make this quick and easy. Overbought/Oversold: There is very little interesting here, but will update it for regular readers. SPX stocks at 20-day highs: Completely […]

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Breakout or Fake-out, Again?

Last week here, I candidly admitted that I had no real bias coming into the week. That changed Tuesday morning at around 10:30, right about the time the market rallied higher never to look back. I even sent out a tweet right before the rally began to highlight what I was seeing.    Overbought/Oversold: I […]

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The Big Move Is…..

Last week I was out of town and posted the SPY open interest on my twitter stating that it looked similar to the week prior and worth a read (which is here). The main take away was that any rally would likely be sold and a swift sell-off was a good probability. That indeed happened as Monday […]

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Will Bulls Go For Gold or Pass the Baton to Bears?

Last week here I gave a few scenarios for next week with levels on SPY to guide you. Specifically, I said that if we gap higher or get above 208 then as long as that held, the bias was bullish. I also stated that, “Once again, the market is in a similar predicament in which […]

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Stuck, Trend-less, Choppy Markets

Pick an adjective, there are a plethora to choose from in the English language, but they all describe the market environment we are trading in. The bull isn’t winning, the bear isn’t winning, although premium sellers are likely winning. Last week here, I wrote that the likely scenario would be a choppy to lower start to […]

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Will This Breakout Be For Real?

If you missed my Benzinga radio interview, check it out here. Last week here my bias was more bearish; however, I clearly stated that if we got above SPY 207 then the downside would likely be limited. My caution to be ready for multiple scenarios was even quoted in MarketWatch Monday morning. That information proved to be […]

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Market in Need of A Washout

I will be live on Benzinga radio this Wednesday April 8th at 9:00 am. Last week here I wrote both about the potential for a rally at the start of the week with ‘window dressing’ and potential for quarter pinning. We got that rally. Then I gave a specific level to watch for to determine if the […]

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Troubled Markets Ahead

First, I just wanted to thank all of you that tuned into Fox Business during my appearance last Tuesday. I appreciate all the support I have received as the media is still very new to me. Here is a link in case you missed it. Second, I wanted to mention that I will be attending […]

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The Path of Least Resistance is Higher

Note: I will be on Fox Business Tuesday at 4:00 pm so please tune in :-). Last week here I wrote that the most likely scenario would be a choppy start to the week followed by a rally in both equites and treasuries. That was right on and those prepared for it were paid handsomely. Keeping […]

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Have We Bottomed Yet? Next Weeks Game Plan

Last week here I wrote that we were likely to bounce, but also to make a lower low. Both did indeed take place. The question now becomes have we bottomed or is there more downside to come and if so, how far? A look at how oversold the market is: 20-day highs went below 5% which […]

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A Bounce and A Lower Low – Which Comes First?

Last week here I wrote that the most likely scenario based on the evidence was a period of consolidation and/or pullback. Based on the open interest I also discussed the drop that would likely happen if we breached the 210 level on SPY more than once. Both scenarios played out and now we find ourselves threatening […]

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A Healthy Market Pause Looming

Last week here I wrote “I took a look at every bullish weekly MACD signal cross since March 2009. In each of the 10 instances, the market continued to make higher highs the following week 100% of the time. Furthermore, in 9 of 10 instances the market also closed higher to end the week. The one instance […]

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New Year, New Highs, Same Ole Bears

Last week here I wrote that the path of least resistance for the week ahead was higher, which played out nicely. This week, the same is true, yet as a short-term trader I am more cognizant of the psychology starting to shift regarding the current market place as I will explain. Last week, anecdotally speaking, my sense was […]

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Is the Chop Really Over?

After over two months of rangebound choppy action we finally made all time highs on Friday. Those that have fought the recent rally can list a plethora or reasons why the recent high is bearish; however, let there be no mistake that closing at highs is bullish as it has been in every other instance since […]

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Stay On Your Toes Or Be Stepped On

Last week here I wrote that I wouldn’t be surprised if we went below SPY 200 and then went on to test the other side of the recent range at 204. Both did in fact take place before the market then went on to break the wedge that many market participants have had their eyes on. The […]

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Yo We Goin’ Lower Next Week or What?

After last week I haven’t read much except for bearish implications. I too have already discussed that in my posts, particularly the one titled An Intermittent Bottom Perhaps, but Swing Bottom in Question, posted on January 19th. I still do not think the bottom is in; however, I also don’t think there won’t be some shake-outs […]

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Next Weeks Road Map $SPY $QQQ $IWM

In last weeks post I talked about a probable bounce, but a new high being in question. We got the bounce and so the obvious question becomes do we see a 2013/2014 move to new highs now or are we putting in a lower high and continuing back into correction zone? With the Greek election outcome, a […]

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An Intermittent Bottom perhaps, but Swing Bottom in Question

As I mentioned in my post One Big Game of F***ery on Thursday, I think a lot of the price action last week had to do with January expiration. Given that it was a monthly expiration and the first one of the year it had quite a large amount of open calls and puts that when being closed or […]

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