SPY Open Interest for Mon, Wed, Friday for Week 10/22/18

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Below are the stats since weekly freebie began sending emails: 

  • 17 wins (I only count wins when they are either big wins or where there was enough time to take profits).
  • 7 that didn’t trigger
  • 7 scratch trades
  • 2 loss

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Open Interest: If you want more information on how to read the high calls and puts in the open interest see here.

SPY-M: (21 of 33 for pins).* The best pin for Monday is 280, but there is plenty of room between 275 and 280 that it can also close in if price action is weak. However, if price stays under 275 then it could start moving through those puts in a quick manner till the 270 puts which would likely stop the move.  

SPY-W: (79 of 109 pins).* Wednesday’s expiration suggests a close above 280 given the puts there, but remember that the longer price stays below there the harder it will be to close above it. Furthermore, there is time for those puts to close before Wednesday. There is also some small put support at 275 and 276 but not much below it. If there was a very large rally over 280 it’s possible for price to pin at 285, but since those puts at 285 likely close before Wednesday it is unlikely. 

SPY-F: (63 of 101 pins).* Friday’s expiration suggest a close between 275 and 280, but as I mentioned above, there is plenty of time for this OI to change. Price staying under 275 does lead to risk of delta hedging and a panic type move lower. To the upside there is high call resistance at 28o which will likely make it difficult for price to get or at least to stay over that level next week.

Pinning Stuff:

*An explanation as to how I define range pinning can be found here. More information about what pinning is can be found under the education section or here.

Monday 10/15: Successful pin. In this scenario because last week I discussed that there was really no put support to stop price from falling I was going to call any close under the 282 calls a pin. 

Wednesday 10/17: Successful pin. There was no perfect pin, but the main strikes didn’t close in the money. 

Friday 10/12: Failed to the downside.

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